1. WP 5 : Air Quality Forecasting Bas Mijling Ronald van der A Arjan Lampe AMFIC Progress Meeting ● Barcelona ● 24 June 2009

2. AMFIC Work Package 5 5.1Implementation of a chemical transport model on a 0.25 degree resolution 5.2Model improvements, especially the incorporation of aerosols in the model 5.3A better emission database will be incorporated in the model. If possible, this database will be improved based on retrieval- model comparisons 5.4Implementation of an operational chemical weather forecast service

3. Overview 1.Implementation and use of Chimere model 2.Validation; High nocturnal values 3.Future steps

4. 1 Implementation Chimere model

5. Overview Chimere output CHIMERE ECMWF meteo MELCHIOR scheme 44 species 120 reactions INTEX-B 2006 inventory GLGC database 1 x 1 km² emissions monthly averages gas phase: LMDZ-INCA2 aerosol: GOCART boundary conditions end field of previous simulation initial field landuse chemistry Resolution 0.25 x 0.25 degree 8 horizontal layers Hourly concentrations of 44 gases and aerosols

7. by Qiang Zhang and David Streets INTEX-B Emissions

8. Use of Chimere Results Forecast of air quality in China for large urban areas –www.amfic.eu/bulletin Background values for street level model CERC –www.beijingairquality.cn/ Background values for regional model VITO –www.vito.be/amfic Air quality forecast during Olympic Games –www.knmi.nl/beijing2008

9. www.amfic.eu/bulletin

10. www.amfic.eu statistics Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009Jun 2009* Totaal325610216002374390723044 articles516914817312049 articles.php15 64514219 bulletin169155107510731420616 forecast.php15145444499 grounddata.php861719133 index.php1822102836225 internal20616931389374 links.php21 69712819 members.php202192626111 overpass_data115011271533303 satellite.php2760458271668250381563 validationdata.php142171745017 * ) up to 16 June

11. 2 Validation, Nocturnal Values

12. Measurements by BBC Olympic Games http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7506925.stm Daily PM10 measurements at 13h in central Beijing

13. Comparison with Beijing

14. Diurnal variation Measurements (W.-x. Wang et al., 2008 Air Qual Atmos Health) Chimere (0.25° × 0.25°) Measured August 7 to September 30, 2007 at Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences

15. Diurnal profile PM 10 Beijing (Aug-Sep 2007) Hong Kong (Aug-Sep 2007)

16. Time series Hong Kong PM 10 at 15h local timePM 10 at 03h local time 19 Aug 26 Aug 6-7 Sep

17. Nocturnal boundary layer height too low over megacities (e.g. BLH=20 m for Beijing) Trace gases not well mixed due to low vertical diffusion coefficient (e.g. K z =0.1 m 2 /s for Beijing) Caused by a lack of Urban Heat Island Effect: too low sensible heat flux over megacity. Taking BLH=750 m and K z =1 m 2 /s for Beijing decreases nocturnal PM 10 with 25-30% 

18. 3 Future Steps

19. Improvements of model –Nocturnal boundary layer –Aerosols –… Improvement of emissions –Higher resolution (VITO) –Assimilation of satellite data –Better diurnal cycle by sector –… Future Steps

20. Desaggregation of emissions Original INTEX-B (0.5x0.5) Desaggregated by VITO to AMFIC grid (0.25x0.25)

21. Conclusions Chimere model is successfully implemented Daily operational forecasts are available on website http://www.amfic.eu/bulletin Results validate well, but high nocturnal values due to unrealistic boundary layer for megacity. More ground sources needed for further validation! Model and emissions are to be improved

22. Thank you!