1. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 The Future of Management Julian Birkinshaw Professor of Strategy & Entrepreneurship Director of the Deloitte Institute London Business School

2. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Credit Default Swaps Processor speed (MIPS) Processing power/$ Number of internet hosts Data transmission speeds Cost of bandwidth (bits/second/$) Number of genes sequenced Astronomical data collected The Accelerating Change hypothesis

3. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Ray Kurzweil

4. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 The creative destruction hypothesis “INDUSTRIAL AGE” “INFORMATION AGE” 19802000 19601940 1920 ?

5. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 The Information Age: Capital and labour no longer scarce resources Efficiency driving out effectiveness Productivity driving out motivation CAPITAL LABOUR INFORMATIO N KNOWLEDGE

6. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 What lies beyond? “INDUSTRIAL AGE” “INFORMATION AGE” “POST INFORMATION AGE” 198020002020 19601940 1920 ?

7. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Brief table discussion What would be the warning signs that the “information age” was coming to an end? a)What does a business world with too much information look like? What problems does that create? How might we overcome those problems? b)And what does a business world with too much emphasis on knowledge look like? What problems does that create? How might we overcome those problems?

8. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015

9. Problems with Big Data Analytics Overly precise Lacking in context An answer in search of a question 42

10. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Transitioning beyond the information age Too much information creates deficit of attention Overemphasis on logic leads to sterile decision making INFORMATIO N KNOWLEDGE DECISIVE ACTION EMOTIONAL CONVICTION

11. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 The changing source of advantage INDUSTRIAL AGE Labour Capital INFORMATION AGE Information Knowledge “AGILE AGE” Action Conviction

12. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 How should your organisation respond to these changes? Fight complexity with complexity

13. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Benefits of creating a complex organisation structure Formal rules and procedures create efficiency People are given roles according to expertise Favouritism is eliminated

14. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Costs of creating a complex organisation structure Risk averse Slow moving Disempowering Internally focused

15. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 How should your organisation respond to these changes? Fight complexity with complexity Fight complexity with simplicity

16. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Simpler structures can be more powerful

17. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 What is the ‘management model’ of the future?

18. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 So, what do you do for a living?

19. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Three ways of describing yourself in the workplace Your formal position What you know What you do

20. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Three different organising models People motivated by… Decisions made through… By Rules Hierarchy Extrinsic Rewards Coordination achieved… People motivated by… Decisions made through… Around Opportunity Experimentation Achievement Coordination achieved… Bureaucracy Position is privileged Adhocracy Action is privileged People motivated by… Decisions made through… Mutual Adjustment Logical Argument Personal Mastery Coordination achieved… Meritocracy Knowledge is privileged

21. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Opportunity-focused coordination

22. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Experimental decision-making Eight months Nine partners <$1m budget “We are making decisions on the fly, very aggressively. But they are informed decisions. The purpose is to get to the next stage as effectively as possible; and once there, the next target becomes visible”

23. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 INDUSTRIAL AGE Emphasis on productivity and efficiency BUREAUCRACY INFORMATION AGE Emphasis on rational analysis and expertise MERITOCRACY ‘AGILE’ AGE Emphasis on agility, intuition, and decisiveness ADHOCRACY Shifting emphasis over time

24. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Brief table discussion Which model(s) are you using with today? And which would you like to be using? People motivated by… Decisions made through… By Rules Hierarchy Extrinsic Rewards Coordination achieved… People motivated by… Decisions made through… Around Opportunity Experimentation Achievement Coordination achieved… Bureaucracy Position is privileged Adhocracy Action is privileged People motivated by… Decisions made through… Mutual Adjustment Logical Argument Personal Mastery Coordination achieved… Meritocracy Knowledge is privileged

25. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Adhocracy at a personal level

26. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Men’s world high-jump record 2.55 m 2.45 m 2.35 m 2.25 m 2.15 m 2.05 m 1.95 m 1900 19201940 1960 1980 2000

27. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 John Thomas vs. Valeriy Brumel 2.55 m 2.45 m 2.35 m 2.25 m 2.15 m 2.05 m 1.95 m 1900 19201940 1960 1980 2000

28. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Dick Fosbury: Mexico Olympics Gold 2.55 m 2.45 m 2.35 m 2.25 m 2.15 m 2.05 m 1.95 m 1900 19201940 1960 1980 2000 Olympi cs

29. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 Three waves of innovation in the high jumping industry 2.55 m 2.45 m 2.35 m 2.25 m 2.15 m 2.05 m 1.95 m 1900 19201940 1960 1980 2000 The Fosbury Flop The Straddle Jump The Western Roll

30. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 in praise of “unreasonable” people The “Hyperloop”

31. Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 INDUSTRIAL AGE BUREAUCRACY Leadership is about monitoring and controlling INFORMATION AGE MERITOCRACY Leadership is about expertise and information flow “AGILE” AGE ADHOCRACY Leadership is about enabling experimentation, making an emotional connection