1. by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering) Princeton University Presented at TAC 100 2014 Annual Meeting Montreal, CN September 28, 2014 Impacts of Future Vehicle Technologies (aka SmartDrivingCars) on Infrastructure and Design

2. NOT: Future Vehicle Technologies

3. More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

4. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles Level 0 (No automation) The human is in complete and sole control of safety-critical functions (brake, throttle, steering) at all times. Level 1 (Function-specific automation) The human has complete authority, but cedes limited control of certain functions to the vehicle in certain normal driving or crash imminent situations. Example: electronic stability control Level 2 (Combined function automation) Automation of at least two control functions designed to work in harmony (e.g., adaptive cruise control and lane centering) in certain driving situations. Enables hands-off-wheel and foot-off-pedal operation. Driver still responsible for monitoring and safe operation and expected to be available at all times to resume control of the vehicle. Example: adaptive cruise control in conjunction with lane centering Level 3 (Limited self-driving) Vehicle controls all safety functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions. Human can cede monitoring authority to vehicle, which must alert driver if conditions require transition to driver control. Driver expected to be available for occasional control. Example: Google car Level 4 (Full self-driving automation) Vehicle controls all safety functions and monitors conditions for the entire trip. The human provides destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control during the trip. Vehicle may operate while unoccupied. Responsibility for safe operation rests solely on the automated system SmartDrivingCars & Trucks Likely Evoution of SmartDrivingCars:

5. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles LevelInfrastructure Implications Value Proposition Market ForceSocietal Implications Likely Evoution of SmartDrivingCars:

6. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles LevelInfrastructure Implications Value Proposition Market ForceSocietal Implications 0 “55 Chevy” Zero Likely Evoution of SmartDrivingCars:

7. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles LevelInfrastructure Implications Value Proposition Market ForceSocietal Implications 0 “55 Chevy” Zero 1 “Cruise Control & Anti-lock Brakes” zeroSome ComfortInfinitesimalSome Safety (ABS Saved lives & accidents) Likely Evoution of SmartDrivingCars:

8. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles LevelInfrastructure Implications Value Proposition Market ForceSocietal Implications 0 “55 Chevy” Zero 1 “Cruise Control & Anti-lock Brakes” zeroSome ComfortInfinitesimalSome Safety (ABS Saved lives & accidents) 2 “Collision Avoidance & Lane Centering” Good Paint (Lane Markings) Much Safety (but Consumers don’t pay for Safety) Needs help From “Flo & the Gecko” (Insurance incentivizes adoption) “50%” fewer accidents; less severity-> 50% less insurance $ liability Likely Evoution of SmartDrivingCars:

9. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles LevelInfrastructure Implications Value Proposition Market ForceSocietal Implications 0 “55 Chevy” Zero 1 “Cruise Control & Anti-lock Brakes” zeroSome ComfortInfinitesimalSome Safety (ABS Saved lives & accidents) 2 “Collision Avoidance & Lane Centering” Good Paint (Lane Markings) Much Safety (but Consumers don’t pay for Safety) Needs help From “Flo & the Gecko” (Insurance incentivizes adoption) “50%” fewer accidents; less severity-> 50% less insurance $ liability 3 “Texting Machine” Good Paint (Lane Markings) + “Safe Havens” + Designations Liberation (some of the time/places) ; more Safety Consumers Pull, TravelTainment Industry Push Increased car sales, many fewer insurance claims, slight + in VMT Likely Evoution of SmartDrivingCars:

10. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles LevelInfrastructure Implications Value Proposition Market ForceSocietal Implications 0 “55 Chevy” Zero 1 “Cruise Control & Anti-lock Brakes” zeroSome ComfortInfinitesimalSome Safety (ABS Saved lives & accidents) 2 “Collision Avoidance & Lane Centering” Good Paint (Lane Markings) Much Safety (but Consumers don’t pay for Safety) Needs help From “Flo & the Gecko” (Insurance incentivizes adoption) “50%” fewer accidents; less severity-> 50% less insurance $ liability 3 “Texting Machine” Good Paint (Lane Markings) + “Safe Havens” + Designations Liberation (some of the time/places) ; more Safety Consumers Pull, TravelTainment Industry Push Increased car sales, many fewer insurance claims, slight + in VMT 4 “aTaxi “ Good Paint (Lane Markings) + “Safe Havens” + Designations + Better Intersection markings & Signs Chauffeured, Buy Mobility “by the Drink” rather than “by the Bottle” Profitable Business Opportunity for Utilities/Transit Companies Personal Car becomes “Bling” not instrument of personal mobility, VMT ?; Comm. Design ? Energy, Congestion, Environment? Likely Evoution of SmartDrivingCars:

11. Stay in lane Don’t hit anything in front of you If car heading towards you in the other lane, crosses over to your lane, try to avoid hitting it Dominant Driving Functions Change lane; merge Stop at the correct location when at head of queue Choose correct lane Stay in lane Proceed when traffic control permits

12. Adhere diligently to the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices Consistent signal locations Only make infrastructure investments that will help conventional drivers Traffic Control Devices

13. Good Paint Good Lane Markings Good Surface

14. Shoulders Create Safe Havens Along & @ ends of “Level 3” segments Create Safe Havens Along & @ ends of “Level 3” segments “Runaway” Ramps Rest Areas

15. What best helps today’s conventional drivers Conclusion: Good Paint; Good Signs; Safe Havens Good Paint Good Signs Safe Havens

16. Thank You alaink@princeton.edu www.SmartDrivingCar.com Discussion!