1. MEETING THE INDUSTRY’S SKILLS CHALLENGE IN THE NEW TRAINING LANDSCAPE 4 November 2015

2. Industry Demand for Manpower-An Analysis of Future Manpower and Skills Availability Dr. Mike Hammond Director Hammonds Enterprises Ltd

3. Part 1: Labour Market Information for the Building Services Engineering Sector We need to know the current size of the H&V and ACR industries, so we know approximately how many people are working in our industries. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) publishes one Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code to covering workers within the building services engineering sector – including mechanical workers. Therefore, to reflect the diverse industries within the mechanical part of the building services engineering sector, these have to be broken down by industry to make them meaningful to the sector.

4. BSE Labour Market Data 2014-2018 20142018 Electricians176,720185,470 Plumbers80,50182,748 Industrial and Commercial Heating and Ventilation Engineers 19,81620,369 Service and Maintenance Engineers (H&V ) 29,72430,553 Air Conditioning Engineers7,9268,147 Ductwork Engineers1,9822,037 Refrigeration Engineers14,86215,276

5. Predicted Economic Growth is likely to be very modest within the sector to 2018 Electricians: 7,040 (1,760 per year) Plumbers: 1,641 (410/411 per year) Ind & Com H&V: 553 (138/139 per year) Serv & Main H&V: 827 (206/207 per year) Air Con: 223 (55/56 per year) Ductwork: 53 (13/14 per year) Refrigeration: 419 (104/5 per year)

6. Additional Labour Demand Having calculated the labour demand for the sector between 2014 and 2018 in the H&VACR industries, we now need to look at how many additional operatives will be required in the UK in each year. The labour demand calculations shown here comprise two distinct components: (i) the predicted growth calculation, which is based on predicted economic growth between 2014 and 2018 and is the number of additional workers each industry will need to meet this growth; and (ii) the outflow of labour from each industry through retirement, death etc over the same period which will need to be replaced to maintain sufficient labour over the same period.

7. BSE Labour Demand 2014-2018 20142018 Electricians7,2527,514 Plumbers2,9082,975 Industrial and Commercial Heating and Ventilation Engineers 792808 Service and Maintenance Engineers (H&V) 1,1881,213 Air Conditioning Engineers 33734 Ductwork Enginers5961 Refrigeration Engineers593605

8. Supply Side Data This section analyses:Apprenticeship Completions 2009-2014 against proposed Labour Demand in the various Mechanical Industries in the BSE Sector.

9. Size of the BSE Sector

10. Current Supply of Apprenticeship Completions 2014-2018 in England

11. Supply Side Data The data suggests that: Within all the four nations, the percentage of plumbers completing apprenticeships is considerably higher than the other mechanical trades in the BSE sector, and significantly higher than the predicated industry sizes. This leads to the question whether the H&V and ACR industries are using plumbing qualifications to train their apprentices because local appropriate training is not available

12. Yearly under supply of Labour in England 2014-2018 2014DemandSupplyUnder Supply H&V1,468598-870 ACR731305-426 2015 H&V1,476598-878 ACR737305-432 2016 H&V1,484598-886 ACR742305-437 2017 H&V1,493598-841 ACR746305-441 2018 H&V1,503598-905 ACR749305-444

13. Cumulative Labour Shortfall in the building services engineering mechanical industries in the UK – 2014-2018 – Indicating the Effect of the Industry’s Current Training Effort based on Engineering Services SKILLcard data 20142018 1. Industrial and Commercial Heating and Ventilation Engineers 792809 Cumulative Shortfall4262,174 2. Service and Maintenance Engineers (H&V) (b) 1,1911,216 Cumulative Shortfall1,0535,324 3. Air Conditioning Engineers 337343 Cumulative shortfall2171,099 4. Ductwork Engineers6162 Cumulative Shortfall55276 5. Refrigeration Engineers595606 Cumulative Shortfall3701,878

14. Analysis of SKILLcard Data B&ES have commissioned Hammonds Enterprises Ltd to undertake analysis of Engineering & Services SKILLcards : 1.Distribution of SKILLcards around the nations and regions 2.Age Profile of the sector by nation and region 3.Type of cards issued by nation and region (Advanced analysis will allow this to be linked to the type of SKILLcard issued.) The analysis of the skill card data will allow B&ES to produce a very sophisticated manpower plan, which will identify the following things: 1.Potential labour shortage crisis points. It may be much worse in the next few years than we think. 2.Match live SKILLcard data with potential supply data 3.Analyse recruitment behaviour of the H&VACR industries and compare this against UK economic performance. It is anticipated that this can be done from the 1960s onwards. 4.Identify where to increase recruitment of operatives to meet increased retirement demand.

15. Final Geographical Distribution of SKILLcards

16. Comparison between retirement outflows in the next five years and inflows in the previous five years

17. Age Profile of the Mechanical Industries of the BSE Sector

18. What does this data suggest? The fall in the number of apprentices entering the B&ES sector has been declining at a rapid rate since 2008 across the UK as a whole. Predicted retirements to 2020 will not be met by new entrants unless rapid progress in apprentice recruitment is undertaken.

19. Age Profile of all Gold SKILLcard holders in the UK

20. Age Profile of all Managerial SKILLcard holders in the UK

21. Age Profile of all Design Engineer SKILLcard holders in the UK

22. Age Profile of all Green SKILLcard holders in the UK

23. Industrial and Commercial Heating and Ventilating (H&V) Pipefitter/Heating and Ventilating (H&V) Fitter/Welder in the UK Regions – Level 3/Gold SKILLcard Retirees vs Trainees

24. Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineer/Technician in the UK Regions – Level 2/Blue SKILLcard Retirees vs Trainees

25. Ductwork Erector/Ductwork Installer in the UK Regions – Levels 2 and 3/Blue and Gold SKILLcard Retirees vs Trainees

26. Commissioning Engineers/Technicians in the UK Regions – Level 3/Gold SKILLcard Retirees vs Trainees

27. Commissioning Engineers/Technicians in the UK Regions – Levels 2 and 3/Blue and Gold SKILLcard Retirees vs Trainees

28. Plumbing and Domestic Heating Fitters/Service Engineers in the UK Regions – Levels 2 and 3/Blue and Gold SKILLcard – Retirees vs Trainees

29. Building Services Design Engineers – Platinum and Black SKILLcard Holders in the UK – Retirees vs Trainees over the Next ten Years

30. Building Services Engineers (non-Design) – Platinum and Black SKILLcard Holders in the UK – Retirees vs Trainees over the Next ten Years

31. Supervisors – Gold SKILLcard Holders in the UK – Retirees vs Trainees over the Next ten Years

32. What can this data model do? Total Analysis of Age profile of the Mechanical BSE sector. Total Skill Levels of the Mechanical BSE Sector Total Age Profile analysis of each specific Occupation within the Welplan scheme Total Skill Profile for each specific occupation within the Welplan scheme Inflows and outflows analysis requirements for future high accuracy BSE LMI models Actual retirement numbers based on statutory retirement ages by Occupation, with uplift for non-skill card sections of the sector for new entrant training requirements

33. What can this data Model do? Labour deficits analysis in relation to retirements and recruitments Identify occupation imbalance, against projected requirements Labour plans for industry by region, town or even postcode. Analysing the labour skill and occupation composition within a generic area to help employers plan their labour requirements Be-spoke reports to meet individual client needs

34. Thank You and Any Questions Dr. Mike Hammond Director Hammonds Enterprises Ltd