1. Psychology of Judgment & Decision Making: Future Directions Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 12/10/2015: Lecture 11-2 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help me create the slides. The macros aren’t needed to view the slides. You can disable or delete the macros without any change to the presentation.

2. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 2 Outline Reminder re Psych 466 course evaluation. Books that are related to this course Courses that are related to this course Hot topics in decision science Decision Analysis – What Is It?

3. Course Evals Students will be contacted by email from UW Office of Educational Assessment. Contact will be Monday at midnight, i.e., any time on Monday. Will stay open for 4 days. Please fill out form. If students have computer in class, fill it out now. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 3 Decision Analysis - What Is It?

4. Decision Analysis – What Is It? Central question of decision analysis: How can we best make decisions in real situations? ♦ Decision analysis tends to have a practical focus, although it pays attention to theoretical and experimental work in economics, engineering and psychology. ♦ Taught in business schools and engineering departments, although relevant courses are also taught in public health schools, law schools, psychology departments. Technical field ♦ Decision trees, influence diagrams ♦ Cost/utility analysis (related to cost/benefit analysis) Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 4 Decision Analysis Books

5. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 5 Decision Analysis Books Clemen, E. T., & Reilly, T. (2001). Making hard decisions. Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury Press. Keeney, R. L. (1992). Value focused thinking: A path to creative decisionmaking. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1993). Decisions with multiple objectives. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research. New York: Cambridge University Press. Alemi, F., & Gustafson, D. (2006). Decision Analysis for Healthcare Managers. Chicago, IL: Health Administration Press. Weinstein, M. C., Fineberg, H. V., Elstein, A. S., Frazier, H. S., Neuhauser, D., Neutra, R. R., & McNeil, B. J. (1980). Clinical decision analysis. Philadelphia, PA: W. B. Saunders. Repeat This Slide Without Sequenced Entry

6. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 6 Decision Analysis Books Clemen, E. T., & Reilly, T. (2001). Making hard decisions. Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury Press. Keeney, R. L. (1992). Value focused thinking: A path to creative decisionmaking. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1993). Decisions with multiple objectives. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research. New York: Cambridge University Press. Alemi, F., & Gustafson, D. (2006). Decision Analysis for Healthcare Managers. Chicago, IL: Health Administration Press. Weinstein, M. C., Fineberg, H. V., Elstein, A. S., Frazier, H. S., Neuhauser, D., Neutra, R. R., & McNeil, B. J. (1980). Clinical decision analysis. Philadelphia, PA: W. B. Saunders. Main Questions of Judgment & Decision Making

7. Main Questions of Judgment and Decision Making What cognitive processes produce people’s judgments and decisions? How do different situations and contexts influence judgment and decision processes? What do we think will make us happy or give us satisfaction? What actually makes us happy or gives us satisfaction? What are the neurological mechanisms that allow us to make judgments and decisions? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 7 Judgment & Decision Making Books

8. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 8 Judgment & Decision Making Books - Main List Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. (Eds.) (2002). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. & the ABC research group. (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford University Press. Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., & Pachur, T. (2011). Heuristics: The foundations of adaptive behavior. New York: Oxford University Press. JDM Books (continued)

9. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 9 Judgment & Decision Making Books - Useful & Interesting Ariely, D. (2010). Predictably irrational: The hidden forces that shape our decision. New York: Harper/Collins. Ariely, D. (2010). The upside of irrationality: The unexpected benefits of defying logic at work and at home. New York: Harper Collins. Chapman, G. B., & Sonnenberg, F. (2000). Decision making in health care: Theory, psychology, and applications. New York: Cambridge University Press. Gilbert, D. T. (2006). Stumbling on happiness. New York: Knopf. Koehler, D. J., & Harvey, N. (Eds.) (2004). Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making. Oxford: Blackwell. Plous, S. (1993). The psychology of judgment and decision making. New York: McGraw-Hill. Stanovich, K. E. (2009). Decision making and rationality in the modern world. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. Related UW Courses

10. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 10 UW Courses PSYCH 445 Theories of Social Psychology PSYCH 462 Human Memory PSYCH 469 Psychology of Reasoning PSYCH 471 Applied Issues in Cognition Hot Topics

11. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 11 Hot Topics Today Behavioral economics Neuroeconomics Neural decision making Psychology of happiness Best of Luck

12. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 12 Best of Luck Exit Discussion - END

13. Class Discussion Go around the class. Each student reports what are their plans for the near and more distant future. ♦ Grad students – Does JDM fit into their research and career plans. ♦ Undergrads – what next? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Autumn 2012 13 END