1. Catastrophe Planning: Variables and Relationships David A. McEntire, PhD University of North Texas

2. Catastrophes A product of a hazard (or hazards) of extreme magnitude with extreme forms of vulnerability.

3. Examples of Hazards Meteor crater Great Sumatra earthquake China earthquake Hurricane Katrina Spanish Flu Union Carbide spill Future events

4. Rethinking Hazards We have little control over hazards A focus on hazards downplays the human element Thoughts from various scholars

5. The Role of Humans Environmental degradation Population growth Resource depletion Spread of diseases Changes in warfare

6. Focusing on Vulnerability Definition The social vulnerability school The holistic vulnerability school

7. Accepting Complexity Catastrophes are not always sudden occurrences Hazards may trigger other hazards Major events unfold in complicated ways Overlapping environments East Bay Hills fire

8. The Impact of Catastrophes Non-routine social problems Society will be severely incapacitated Will require outside assistance

9. Intervention Points Mitigation Preparedness Response Recovery

10. Management Models Bureaucratic Model Centralized Top down Rigid Assumes the worst about human behavior Problem Solving Decentralized Bottom up Flexible Assumes an altruistic society

11. Conclusion Catastrophes result from hazards and vulnerability There are many variables that lead to catastrophes and they interact in complex ways Impacts of catastrophes are significant We must take special measures to deal with catastrophes There are two models to help us manage them

12. Thank you! David A. McEntire Emergency Administration and Planning University of North Texas (940) 565-2996 mcentire@unt.edu