1. Carlos Rodriguez on Heat, Learning and Prediction July 10, 2007 (52)

2. Problem: I have a brain I observe x I want to understand x I need to predict future x' How ?

3. Brain ? Why ?

5. movement brain

6. sea squirt at home

7. CNS for navigation

8. Bio Phys Math

10. t  Truth: t(x) Model: { p(x|  )} Geometrization of Inference

11. minimized when: Gibbs distribution ! negative free energy ! I G N O R A N C E

12. t  Truth: t(x) Model: { p(x|  )} Geometrization of Inference

13. minimized when: Gibbs distribution ! negative free energy ! I G N O R A N C E

14. t  Truth: t(x) Model: { p(x|  )} Geometrization of Inference

15. minimized when: Gibbs distribution ! negative free energy ! I G N O R A N C E

16. t  Truth: t(x) Model: { p(x|  )} Geometrization of Inference

17. minimized when: Gibbs distribution ! negative free energy ! I G N O R A N C E

21. ** I G N O R A N C E ** minimized when

22. OPTIMALITY OF CONJUGATE PRIORS minimizes: provided

23. Example: need