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Introduction to Geoengineering for Ecologists Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering Workshop Scripps, 31 Jan 2011
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Reuters: David Gray
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www.sit.ac.nz
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Solar Radiation Management options Carbon Dioxide Removal options
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Desire for improved well- being Demand for goods and services Demand for energy Impacts on humans and Climate change & ocean CO 2 emissions CO 2 in ecosystems acidification atmosphere Conservation Efficiency Low-carbon energy Carbon dioxide removal Adaptation Climate engineering
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Temperatures continue to increase throughout this century in every plausible emissions scenario IPCC TAR There is no practical way for emissions reduction to reduce temperatures this century
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Volcanoes caused global cooling by putting dust in the stratosphere Soden et al., 2002 Mt. Pinatubo
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Temperature effects of doubled CO 2 Δ Temperature Statistical significance Caldeira and Wood, 2008
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Temperature effects of doubled CO 2 Δ Temperature Statistical significance Caldeira and Wood, 2008 with a uniform deflection of 1.84% of sunlight
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Precipitation effects of doubled CO 2 Caldeira and Wood, 2008
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Temperature effects of doubled CO 2 Caldeira and Wood, 2008 with a uniform deflection of 1.84% of sunlight
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Zonal average precipitation and temperature Caldeira and Wood, 2008
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Cao et al, in prep. In HadCM3L, a coarse-resolution atmosphere-ocean GCM, perform outer product of (27) simulations starting from -- 3 different initial conditions (1xCO2, 2xCO2, 4xCO2) -- 3 different CO2 levels (1xCO2, 2xCO2, 4xCO2) -- 3 different solar intensity levels (-2CO2eq, normal, +2CO2eq) Perform linear regressions to separate dependencies on -- global mean temperature, -- CO 2 -concentration, and -- solar intensity.
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C – response per CO 2 -doubling S – response per equiv. solar increase T – response per C warming Cao et al, in prep.
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C – response per CO 2 -doubling S – response per equiv. solar increase T – response per C warming Cao et al, in prep.
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C – response per CO 2 -doubling S – response per equiv. solar increase T – response per C warming Cao et al, in prep.
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Main effects - High CO 2 - Lower temperature Secondary effects - Changes in PAR - Changes in precip/evap Not considered - Changes in UV - Diffuse radiation - Everything else
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TreesCrops Grasses C4 Positive down
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Mt. Pinatubo and global ozone Mt. Pinatubo
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Concluding suggestions Consider consequences if people are deploying measures thoughtfully Compare “geoengineered” state to both “natural” state of the system and the perturbed state in the absence of “geoengineering”
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