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Introduction to Geoengineering for Ecologists Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology Ecosystem Impacts.

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Presentation on theme: "Introduction to Geoengineering for Ecologists Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology Ecosystem Impacts."— Presentation transcript:

1 Introduction to Geoengineering for Ecologists Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering Workshop Scripps, 31 Jan 2011

2 Reuters: David Gray

3 www.sit.ac.nz

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5 Solar Radiation Management options Carbon Dioxide Removal options

6 Desire for improved well- being Demand for goods and services Demand for energy Impacts on humans and Climate change & ocean CO 2 emissions CO 2 in ecosystems acidification atmosphere Conservation Efficiency Low-carbon energy Carbon dioxide removal Adaptation Climate engineering

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8 Temperatures continue to increase throughout this century in every plausible emissions scenario IPCC TAR There is no practical way for emissions reduction to reduce temperatures this century

9 Volcanoes caused global cooling by putting dust in the stratosphere Soden et al., 2002 Mt. Pinatubo

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11 Temperature effects of doubled CO 2 Δ Temperature Statistical significance Caldeira and Wood, 2008

12 Temperature effects of doubled CO 2 Δ Temperature Statistical significance Caldeira and Wood, 2008 with a uniform deflection of 1.84% of sunlight

13 Precipitation effects of doubled CO 2 Caldeira and Wood, 2008

14 Temperature effects of doubled CO 2 Caldeira and Wood, 2008 with a uniform deflection of 1.84% of sunlight

15 Zonal average precipitation and temperature Caldeira and Wood, 2008

16 Cao et al, in prep. In HadCM3L, a coarse-resolution atmosphere-ocean GCM, perform outer product of (27) simulations starting from -- 3 different initial conditions (1xCO2, 2xCO2, 4xCO2) -- 3 different CO2 levels (1xCO2, 2xCO2, 4xCO2) -- 3 different solar intensity levels (-2CO2eq, normal, +2CO2eq) Perform linear regressions to separate dependencies on -- global mean temperature, -- CO 2 -concentration, and -- solar intensity.

17 C – response per CO 2 -doubling S – response per equiv. solar increase T – response per  C warming Cao et al, in prep.

18 C – response per CO 2 -doubling S – response per equiv. solar increase T – response per  C warming Cao et al, in prep.

19 C – response per CO 2 -doubling S – response per equiv. solar increase T – response per  C warming Cao et al, in prep.

20 Main effects - High CO 2 - Lower temperature Secondary effects - Changes in PAR - Changes in precip/evap Not considered - Changes in UV - Diffuse radiation - Everything else

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22 TreesCrops Grasses C4 Positive down

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24 Mt. Pinatubo and global ozone Mt. Pinatubo

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27 Concluding suggestions Consider consequences if people are deploying measures thoughtfully Compare “geoengineered” state to both “natural” state of the system and the perturbed state in the absence of “geoengineering”

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