1. 1 Reggie Cole Lockheed Martin Senior Fellow reggie.cole@lmco.com reggie.cole@lmco.com Garry Roedler Lockheed Martin Fellow garry.j.roedler@lmco.com garry.j.roedler@lmco.com October 24, 2013 Outbrief for: COSYSMO Extension as a Proxy for Systems Cost Estimation

2. 2 Overview of Cost Analysis Approach & Results Requirements Baseline Architecture Baseline Optimistic Expected Pessimistic Requirements Interfaces Algorithms Scenarios Bias Function Risky Range Target Cost Target Reserve Effort Conversion Factor Stochastic Adder Factors Run Monte Carlo Simulations and Generate Cumulative Distribution of Costs

3. 3 Workshop Objectives Validation of the Approach – Review the basic approach and get a consensus on its overall validity Improvement of the Approach – Recommendations on how the approach might be improved Decide on Next Steps for the Community – How do we move forward with the approach?

4. 4 Conclusions and Recommendations (1 of 3) Validity of overall approach – Unanimous support – approach is valid and should continue to be developed and refined for wider application – Feedback was all focused on ensuring all factors had been considered and areas for refinement – no discussion resulted in conclusion that the approach had major issues – Appropriately uses the concepts of COSYSMO and tailors the perspective for systems

5. 5 Conclusions and Recommendations (2 of 3) Improvement of Approach – Best distribution to use? Cumulative, frequency, or other? – Preference is to not change the Scale Factor Want to retain as close to COSYSMO as possible – ready to leverage COSYSMO 3 – Review and refine the bias function and calibration of the bias function May consider adding in other COCOMO factors, as applicable May need to establish rules for when to leverage a HW model using the same approach to use as input for HW, when highly HW intensive May need to consider calibration for different types/classes of systems Bottom line – User needs to consider what tailoring/adaptation of the bias function is needed for the system application – Determine under what conditions it OK to eliminate a cost factor – Additional use cases? Should include Impact Analysis / Change Evaluation

6. 6 Conclusions and Recommendations (3 of 3) Thoughts on moving forward – Form small, diverse working group – Periodic meetings (USC ARR, COCOMO Forum, INCOSE IW, …) – Validation through pilots Use on completed programs – Access the more robust data points from COSYSMO data – Comparison of estimates Use on non-LM programs – Incorporate feedback from validation and refine – Can this support the SERC project for COSATMO?

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