1. An Investigation of the Skill of Week Two Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts at the NCEP-WPC Lance F. Bosart 1, Daniel Keyser 1, and Andrew C. Winters 2 1 Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222 2 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI 53706 NGGPS Annual Meeting and External FFO PI Meeting College Park, MD Friday 17 July 2015

2. Project Summary (1) Improve temperature and precipitation forecasts on the 8–10 day time range at the WPC in collaboration with WPC personnel. Develop a methodology for identifying extreme temperature and precipitation events over the CONUS for all seasons during 1979–present. Perform an evaluation of operational NCEP GFS week two forecast skill for the extreme events with an emphasis on the 8–10 day time range.

3. Project Summary (2) Construct climatologies of forecast temperature and precipitation distributions and stratify these distributions in a manner that will allow classification of various extreme events into characteristic event types. Perform composite analyses of characteristic event types in order to determine the multiscale evolution of the governing atmospheric flow patterns that culminate in these event types. Perform illustrative case studies of individual extreme temperature and precipitation events identified through the composite analyses.

4. Project Summary (3) Conduct verification studies of GFS model and associated human forecasts for the illustrative case studies. Test methodology and new forecast formats under development at WPC in the WPC Hydrometeorological Testbed and incorporate them into forecast operations.

5. Project Outcomes Provide forecasters with a “first alert” to the possibility of the occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation events during week two on the basis of current conditions and model forecasts. Provide forecasters with an indication of the character and flavor of the possible extreme events as inferred from where the events lie in the PDFs of the anticipated event types. Provide forecasters with knowledge that allows them to make science-based adjustments to model guidance and add value to week two forecasts of temperature and precipitation.

6. Supertyphoon Nuri (2014)

7. Super Typhoon Nuri (2014): Extratropical Transition, Explosive Reintensification as an Extratropical Cyclone, and Downstream Predictability Impacts STY Nuri reaches 910 hPa on 2–3 Nov 2014 ET begins on 6–7 Nov as storm weakens to 984 hPa Explosive reintensification as an EC on 7–8 Nov Storm deepens 60 hPa in 30 h down to 924 hPa by 0600 UTC 8 Nov Storm at 924 hPa ties all-time record for deepest North Pacific EC Omega block subsequently forms over western North America Multiple arctic air masses invade the CONUS CPC forecast for a greater chance of a warm November is toppled Global models exhibit poor 5- and 10-day predictability of STY Nuri ET/EC Global models exhibit good 5- and 10-day predictability of omega block

8. Motivation Supertyphoon Nuri 31 Oct – 7 Nov 2014 (ET/EC Phase: 7 – 9 Nov 2014)

9. Super Typhoon Nuri: 31 Oct – 7 Nov 2014 JMA: Best Track JMA: Minimum SLP (hPa) Digital Typhoon (http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/index.html.en)

10. NCEP-OPC Surface Analysis: 0600 UTC 8 November 2014

11. Motivation A Forecast Perspective

12. November 2014 CPC Forecast Temperature Anomaly Probability (Left); Mean and Observed Temperature Anomaly °C (right)

13. NCEP Comparison of Global Operational Model Forecasts of 120 h (Top) and 240 h (Bottom) Anomaly Correlation (AC) Skill for NPAC/NAMER: 28 October – 27 November 2014 AC 0.6 924 hPa AC Time > 0.6 0.8

14. ECMWF Ensemble Mean 200-hPa Geopotential Height (dam) Forecasts and Ensemble Standard Deviation (dam) 144 h: 0000 UTC 15 Nov 2014 240 h: 0000 UTC 15 Nov 2014

15. ECMWF Ensemble Mean 200-hPa Geopotential Heights: 00 h 0000 UTC 15 November 2014

16. Schematic – Synoptic Evolution November 2014 0000 UTC 4 November 2014 Extratropical low pressure center High pressure center Cold front Arctic air Sea level pressure < 1000-hPa 200-hPa Isotachs 200-hPa geopotential heights Legend Tropical Cyclone

17. 1200 UTC 11 November 2014 Schematic – Synoptic Evolution November 2014 Extratropical low pressure center High pressure center Cold front Arctic air Sea level pressure < 1000-hPa 200-hPa Isotachs 200-hPa geopotential heights Legend Tropical Cyclone

18. Schematic – Synoptic Evolution November 2014 1200 UTC 15 November 2014 Extratropical low pressure center High pressure center Cold front Arctic air Sea level pressure < 1000-hPa 200-hPa Isotachs 200-hPa geopotential heights Legend Tropical Cyclone

19. Schematic – Synoptic Evolution November 2014 1200 UTC 18 November 2014 Extratropical low pressure center High pressure center Cold front Arctic air Sea level pressure < 1000-hPa 200-hPa Isotachs 200-hPa geopotential heights Legend Tropical Cyclone

20. Impacts: Buffalo Snow Blitz and CONUS Record Cold

23. Buffalo (72528) Soundings 0000 UTC 18 and 19 Nov 2014 1000–500 hPa thickness: 5034 m T (500 hPa) -42.1 °C; T (850 hPa) -15.1°C LWT–850-hPa temperature difference: ~27°C

24. NCDC CONUS Temperature Rankings for November 2014 (left) and Mean Temperature Anomalies (°F) for 16–22 November 2014 (right)

25. Minimum Temperature Records Broken: 16–22 November 2014 (N = 2677) Source: NCDC

26. Conclusions (I) An upper-level baroclinic disturbance creates a strong baroclinic zone and jet stream across the western North Pacific prior to STY Nuri’s ET The interaction of STY Nuri with a second baroclinic disturbance of arctic origin during ET leads to its explosive reintensification as an EC Downstream high-latitude ridge building and omega block formation over Alaska and NW Canada follows Nuri’s explosive reintensification as an EC

27. Conclusions (II) Omega block persistence (~10 days) enables multiples surges of early-season arctic air to encompass much of the CONUS Impacts of the arctic air surges include a near-epic lake effect snowstorm south of Buffalo and a failed CPC November 2014 seasonal temperature forecast North Pacific and North American atmospheric predictability maximizes one to two weeks after STY Nuri’s ET and explosive reintensification as an EC

28. Abrupt Regime Change over Northeast U.S. in Late May and Early June 2015

29. Abrupt Regime Change from Much Above to Much Below Temperatures over the Northeast in Late May and Early June 2015 Largest CONUS positive temperature anomalies were found over the Northeast in May Reversal from positive to negative temperature anomalies occurred at the end of May Temperature reversal was driven by surface anticyclogenesis over eastern Canada Canadian anticyclogenesis occurred beneath a confluent poleward jet-entrance region Surface anticyclone over eastern Canada drove chilly Atlantic air southwestward Did a record-breaking snowpack over southeastern Canada exacerbate the chill? Did below normal SSTs over the northwest Atlantic contribute to the chill? Did relatively dry air over southeastern Canada allow for evaporative chilling? GFS deterministic forecast did not catch on to the cool down until the 6–7 day forecast Note: GFS forecast grids have aged off and would have to be retrieved

30. Mean and Anomaly 850-hPa Temperature (°C): April 2015

31. Mean and Anomaly 850-hPa Temperature (°C): May 2015

32. Mean (m) and Anomaly (m) 1000-hPa Geopotential Heights: April 2015

33. Mean (dam) and Anomaly (m) 500- hPa Geopotential Heights: May 2015

34. Mean (m) and Anomaly (m) 1000-hPa Geopotential Heights: May 2015

35. Mean (mm) and Anomaly (mm) Precipitable Water: May 2015

36. Sea Level Pressure (hPa) 30 and 31 May 2015

37. Sea Level Pressure (hPa) 1 and 2 June 2015

38. NOAA NCEP-EMC Sea-Surface Temperature (°C) 3 June 2015

39. A Final Thought: One or several EWEs during a single season can contribute disproportionately to temperature and precipitation anomaly statistics for a particular season. This disproportionate contribution suggests that EWEs need to be considered in describing and understanding the dynamical thermodynamical processes that operate at the weather-climate intersection in order to apply that knowledge to making operational probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts for the 8- 10 day time period.