1. Elements of regional climate science- society interaction in Germany Hans von Storch Institut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht clisap-Exzellenzzentrum, Klimacampus, Universität Hamburg hvonstorch@web.dehvonstorch@web.de, http://coast.gkss.de/staff/storchhttp://coast.gkss.de/staff/storch

2. Needed: Separation of popular constructions in the media and of scientifically valid assessments. Generally understandable description of recent and ongoing regional climate change based on scientific results Generally understandable description of possible regional climate changes in the future („scenarios“) Analysis and derivation of options, from reduction of emissions, to better adaptation, reduction of vulnerability to local mitigation of climate related change. Assessment of knowledge on regional climate change (e.g., BACC) derived with scientific methods These tasks are integrated in “regional climate offices“ and a “Climate Service Center” to improve science-stakeholder interaction in particular regions and on the national/European level

3. Lund and Stockholm Two different construction of „climate change“ – scientific and cultural – which is more powerful? Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“ Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some extent but not completely avoided Storm count

4. Knowledge about ongoing change … Such as shown by the BACC report, or by the weather services, e.g., DMI or SMHI Centered 99%-iles (top) and annual means of high water levels at Cuxhaven, Germany.

5. GKSS in Geesthacht The CoastDat data set: Long (50 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions extension – ecological variables, Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea Clients: Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy) General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change www.coastdat.de

6. Expected changes in temperature, precipitation and strong winds 2030-2040 Scenarios A2, B2, different models TemperaturePrecipitationMax Wind

7. Expected changes in temperature, precipitation and strong winds 2071-2100 Scenarios A2, B2, different models TemperaturePrecipitationMax Wind

8. Changing storm surge heights in Cuxhaven und Hamburg Without subsidence or coastal engineering modifications of the river Elbe.

9. Dealing with rising sea level and elevated storm surge heights in Hamburg 1.Additional flooding areas 2.Availability of additional polders to be flooded during severe storm surges to cap the peaks of such surges. 3. Additional dissipation of tidal (and surge) energy by narrowing the mouth segment of the estuary Heinz Glindemann, HPA, pers. comm. The Tidal Elbe concept of Hamburg Port Authority

10. Gill et al.,2007 A mitigation option: reversing (part of) the urban warming by „regional geo-engineering“

11. Assessing scientifically legitimate knwoledge claims about regional climate change

12. Assessments about regional climate change - for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change - consensus of what is scientifically documented for + Baltic Sea (BACC) – done; 2 nd report due in 2012 + Hamburg region (underway) + North Sea (planned with AWI Bremerhaven) + Laptev Sea (planned with AWI Bremerhaven) climate consensus reports in cooperation with HELCOM

13. Generation & Dissemination of Climate Knowledge Regional level National level North German Climate Office other regional activities Climate Service Center (CSC) at GKSS (as national research lab) Research Results Information Needs Society Economy Politics/Administration Science Bridging the Gap

14. North German Climate Office

15. What do we offer? Communication of regional climate change information. Support for correct use and interpretation of regional climate changes scenarios. Determination of informational and interpretative needs among stakeholders

16. Requests for talks Total number of talks since 2006: 112 Average number of presentations per months. Jan. 2006-March 2007: 1,0 March 2007-Feb. 2008: 4,6 March 2008-Jan. 2009: 3,7 Regional level:69% National level:19% International level:12%

17. Climate Service Center (CSC) Climate Service Center (approx. 20 pers) presently set up Simulation & Data AssessmentConsulting Commu- nication Federal ministries - of Education and Research (BMBF) - for the Environment and Nature Conservation (BMU) - of Transport, Building and Urban Affairs (BMVBS) Objectives: Contact point Consulting Generation of Data and Knowledge Base Active Dissemination Cooperation with network of existing institutions

18. To remember … Anthropogenic climate change happens now + here. Emerges in temperature and related quantities Is mainly caused by elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. Even a very successful „climate protection“ policy will only limit climate change, not eradicate it. A necessity for significant adaptation measures will remain, which needs the administrative and political attention on the regional level. Institutions for two-way exchange between science and stakeholders needed. Knowledge about regional climate change, impacts and options is needed.