1. Brussels, 4 December 2013 Louise O. Fresco Food in times of scarcity and abundance Feeding future generations: a few thoughts 1

2. A history of poverty and scarcity 2

3. A history of low yields, manual labour and no agrochemicals 3

4. Population vs scientific developments genome project high speed computers discovery DNA penicillin start 1st agricultural revolution start industrial revolution start 2nd agricultural revolution invention plow 1st irrigation works rail roads war on malariawar on malaria 0 time (years) p o p u l at i on ( m illi on s ) Adapted from: Fogel & Robbert 1999 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 4

5. In the last century…  Life expectancy (x2)  Cost of food (:10)  Costs electricity (: 10)  Costs transportation (: 10)  Poverty (<1.25€/day) 1 in 2 in 1900, 1 in 8 today 5

6. Food availability per capita also in 3d world 5050 7575 100 125 150 19501960197019801990200020102020 I n de x v a l ue year AsiaAsia S. AmericaS. America SS Africa Source: FAOstat 6

7. The spectacular success of agricultural science: productivity in the last century land productivity x 5 - 6 labor productivity x 200 - 300 energy, other inputs x 2 - 4 0,8 1,8 9 600 350 12 0 200 400 600 800 0,00,0 2,52,5 5,05,0 7,57,5 10,0 125015001750 jaar 2000 m e n hour per ha t on wh e a t per ha 7

8. 8

9. Land pressure: areas where > 30% of the land is cultivated 9

10. Urbanisation 10

11. Changing urban diets 11

12. Climate change and fluctuation in rainfall 12

13. Competition for water 13

14. Future food systems 14

15. From craft to finetuning the industry  From adaptive (adapting to environment) to maximum control (fertilizer, pesticides, irrigation)  Resource use efficiency  Labor Greenhouse production Substrate production 15

16. Labour use efficiency 16

17. Trade-offs in animal production 17

18. Genetic modification? 18

19. Bio-based economy  Bulk crops (oil palm, sugar cane) for energy  Agricultural and urban residues for energy, compost, bio-materials and nutrient retrieval  Cascading and refinery 19

20. Multiple objectives  Environmentally friendly  Animal friendly  Landscape and biodiversity  Socio-economic equity 20

21. Organic & small scale an ideal that will not feed the world (but may help) 21

22. Practicalities of sustainability (the 5 R)   Reduce  Re-use  Recycle  Replace  Redesign  (including legal and fiscal frameworks) 22

23. Megatrends: food and health  Vegetables, fruit and fish are good for health  Aim to produce health inducing component through choices in inputs, farming systems and processing: multiple unsaturated fats  Good Agricultural Practices: agricultural products free from residues (nitrate, pesticides)  Food safety: tracking and tracing (BSE, dioxine) 23

24. From food to fashion v o l ume a dded v a l ue flavours health nutrition chemicals & materials energy fibers fuel fermentation products fresh vegetables food crops fodder functional molecules flowers fruits farma fragrances 24

25. Future of animal production 25

26. Alternative proteins 26

27. 18 D e s ign: H a m z ah & Y e a ng (Sing a pore) Metropolitan agriculture 27

28. Biobased economy Adapted crops New agrosystems Biofuels Biomaterials Biorefinery 28

29. Role of supermarkets 29

30. Safety in the food chain 30

31. … Yes we can! But it will require all our efforts to create the scientific basis for innovation and to enhance political support 31