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Evaluation of Models-3 CMAQ I. Results from the 2003 Release II. Plans for the 2004 Release Model Evaluation Team Members Prakash Bhave, Robin Dennis,

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Presentation on theme: "Evaluation of Models-3 CMAQ I. Results from the 2003 Release II. Plans for the 2004 Release Model Evaluation Team Members Prakash Bhave, Robin Dennis,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Evaluation of Models-3 CMAQ I. Results from the 2003 Release II. Plans for the 2004 Release Model Evaluation Team Members Prakash Bhave, Robin Dennis, Brian Eder, Peter Finkelstein, Rob Gilliam, Alice Gilliland, Steve Howard, John Irwin, Daiwen Kang, George Pouliot, Alfreida Rankin, Shawn Roselle, Jenise Swall, Shaocai Yu Atmospheric Modeling Division National Exposure Research Laboratory U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division Air Resources Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

2 Part I. Results of the 2003 Release Evaluation The 2003 Release of CMAQ featured numerous changes: - updated science - corrected implementations - efficiency enhancements - bug fixes Largest impacts involved the aerosol modeling, especially: - aerosol nitrate modeling updated with more recent science Changes resulted in substantially lower concentrations of aerosol nitrate bringing them more in line with observations.

3 In order to characterize the impact of these changes and its overall performance, CMAQ was evaluated over two simulation periods: - Summer 1999 (four weeks) - Winter 2002 (six weeks) -Against observational data from four networks: - IMPROVE - CASTNet - STN (only winter 2002) - SEARCH - Against modeled data from the 2002 Release. Part I. Results of the 2003 Release Evaluation

4 CMAQ Simulation Attributes CMAQ Simulation Attributes Emissions: Gas-phase emissions are based on the 1999 EPA NEI. Chemistry: SAPRC99 gas-phase chemistry mechanism. Meteorology: Derived from MM5 and processed through MCIP (2.2). Resolution: Horizontal:Contiguous U.S. Domain. 32 km by 32 km grids(Summer) 36 km by 36 km grids (Winter) Vertical:Set on a sigma coordinate. 21 layers (Summer) 24 layers (Winter) Part I. Results of the 2003 Release Evaluation

5 Species:SO 4, NO 3, NH 4, PM 2.5, OC, EC Statistics:Summary statistics and plots Mean Bias (MB) Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) Normalized Mean Error (NME) Full evaluation available on AMD’s website: Results:Full evaluation available on AMD’s website:www.epa.gov/asmdnerl/models3

6 Sulfate (μg m -3 ) June 15 – July 16, 1999 CASTNetIMPROVE n264n490 R0.90R MB1.74MB0.75 NMB(%)38.0NMB(%)38.4 RMSE2.89RMSE2.37 NME(%)46.4NME (%)61.9 NME NMB Part I. Results of the 2003 Release Evaluation

7 CASTNetIMPROVESTN n407n728n1149 R0.83R0.85R0.66 MB0.15MB0.29MB-0.26 NMB(%)9.2NMB(%)31.5NMB(%)-12.0 RMSE0.60RMSE0.72RMSE1.16 NME(%)25.7NME(%)53.1NME(%)35.9 NME NMB Part I. Results of the 2003 Release Evaluation Sulfate (μg m -3 ) Jan. 4 – Feb. 19, 2002

8 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release January 4 to January 20, 2002 Part I. Results of the 2003 Release Evaluation June 15 to June 29, 1999 2003 Release produces substantially lower concentrations of nitrate - bringing them more in line with observations 2002 Release 2003 Release

9 Part I. Results of the 2003 Release Evaluation Nitrate (μg m -3 ) June 15 – July 16, 1999 NME NMB CAST IMP n264N415 R0.27R0.36 MB-0.15MB-0.11 NMB(%)-30.8NMB(%)-39.1 RMSE0.57RMSE0.51 NME(%)75.7NME(%)95.0

10 Part I. Results of the 2003 Release Evaluation Nitrate (μg m -3 ) Jan. 4 – Feb. 19, 2002 NME NMB NME NMB CASTIMP STN n407N688n1044 R0.76R0.54R0.39 MB0.64MB0.20MB-0.27 NMB(%)46.8NMB(%)28.9NMB(%)-8.0 RMSE1.36RMSE1.26RMSE4.37 NME(%)70.4NME(%)96.5NME(%)66.9

11 June 15 – July 16, 1999 SpeciesSO 4 NO 3 PM 2.5 NH 4 OCEC NetworkCASIMPCASIMP CASIMP n264490264415457264396 r0.90 0.270.360.710.860.320.69 MB1.740.75-0.15-0.11-0.730.31-0.020.00 NMB (%)38.038.4-30.8-39.1-9.822.7-1.51.00 RMSE2.892.370.570.514.700.701.350.24 NME (%)46.461.975.795.040.336.567.252.6 Jan. 4 - Feb.19, 2002 SpeciesSO 4 NO 3 PM 2.5 NH 4 OCEC NetworkCASSTNIMPCASSTNIMPSTNIMPCASSTNIMPSTNIMPSTN n40711497284071044688927714407114973111067311148 r0.830.660.850.760.390.540.370.680.850.410.560.470.550.40 MB0.15-0.260.290.64-0.270.200.511.490.330.070.14-1.640.070.42 NMB(%)9.2-12.031.546.8-8.028.94.140.340.05.217.2-50.031.059.1 RMSE0.601.160.721.364.371.2610.43.810.511.460.933.320.481.17 NME (%)25.735.953.170.466.996.550.068.947.257.770.060.481.095.0 Part I. Results of the 2003 Release Evaluation

12 Summary The 2003 Release of CMAQ featured many changes, the largest of which impacted aerosol nitrate Other species continue to be simulated reasonably well: - majority of correlations are greater than 0.60 - majority of model simulations are within 2:1 - majority NMB within ±35% - majority NME less than 70% (depending on the specie and observational network.) Part I. Results of the 2003 Release Evaluation

13 Through collaboration with AMD, OAQPS will soon perform a full one year simulation (2001) using the 2004 Release of CMAQ. Part II. Plans for the 2004 Release Evaluation CMAQ Simulation Attributes CMAQ Simulation Attributes Emissions: 2001 Extrapolated from 1999 EPA NEI (Version 3). Chemistry: CBIV gas-phase chemistry mechanism. Meteorology: MM5 processed through MCIP (2.2). Resolution: Horizontal:Contiguous U.S. Domain. 36 km by 36 km grids Vertical:Set on a sigma coordinate. 14 layers

14 A comprehensive evaluation of this simulation will characterize the performance of CMAQ as well as its individual components: Meteorology model Emissions model Chemical Transport Model This evaluation will include the statistics presented earlier, along with: new metrics - Shaocai Yu’s presentation diagnostics - Robin Dennis’ presentation And new, innovative techniques examining model performance over: space and time – John Irwin’s presentation Part II. Plans for the 2004 Release Evaluation

15 Surface-Based: 2-m Temperature 2-m Specific humidity 10 m wind (speed, direction) Hourly precipitation Upper-Air:wind profiles temperature profiles specific humidity profiles Space / Time:Local, regional, and domain based summaries Diurnal, synoptic, monthly and seasonal summaries Part II. Plans for the 2004 Release Evaluation Meteorology Model Evaluation

16 Part II. Plans for the 2004 Release Evaluation Meteorology Model Evaluation Example: 2 m Temperature (K) 2 m Temperature (K) 10:00 GMT 10:00 GMT 1 July – 31 August 1 July – 31 August

17 Part II. Plans for the 2004 Release Evaluation Example: 2 m Temperature (K) 2 m Temperature (K) Mean Error Mean Error Mean Bias Mean Bias Winter Winter

18 Part II. Plans for the 2004 Release Evaluation Meteorology Model Evaluation Example: Precipitation Bias (cm) Precipitation Bias (cm) Monthly Monthly January; July January; July

19 Part II. Plans for the 2004 Release Evaluation Spatial Techniques Example:KrigingCASTNet SO 4 concentrations SO 4 concentrations

20 Part II. Plans for the 2004 Release Evaluation Spatial Techniques Example:Kriging SO4 concentrations CMAQ - CASTNet residuals

21 Part II. Plans for the 2004 Release Evaluation Summary Through collaboration with AMD, OAQPS will soon perform a full one year simulation (2001) using the 2004 Release of CMAQ. An unprecedented, comprehensive evaluation of this simulation will characterize the performance of CMAQ as well as its individual components: Meteorology model Emissions model Chemical Transport Model This evaluation will include new and innovative techniques examining the spatial and temporal characteristics of model performance.

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