1. VISTAS Meteorological Modeling 2002 Simulation May 25, 2004 National RPO Modeling Meeting Denver, CO George Bridgers North Carolina Division of Air Quality

2. Introduction MM5 v3.6.1+ (Sea Ice Differences Only)MM5 v3.6.1+ (Sea Ice Differences Only) MM5 v3.6.2 PreprocessorsMM5 v3.6.2 Preprocessors Reisner 1 w/ Mixed Ice PhysicsReisner 1 w/ Mixed Ice Physics Kain-Fritsch 2 Cumulus ParameterizationKain-Fritsch 2 Cumulus Parameterization ACM Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) ModelACM Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Model Pleim-Xiu Land Surface Model LSM (EPA’s MPP version)Pleim-Xiu Land Surface Model LSM (EPA’s MPP version) –independent segments (cold start)-no INTERPPX INTERPPX is used to initialize soil moisture, canopy moisture, and soil temperature from a previous run when simulation time periods overlap. –Using INTERPPX resulted in a significant wintertime cold bias in sensitivity testing.

3. Introduction (cont.) MM5 executed in 5.5 day segmentsMM5 executed in 5.5 day segments 76 total segments76 total segments 00Z Dec 17, 2001 start00Z Dec 17, 2001 start dec17_01 date tagdec17_01 date tag 12Z Jan 1, 2003 finish12Z Jan 1, 2003 finish Last hour of dec27_02 segmentLast hour of dec27_02 segment

4. Evaluation Procedures Full suite of evaluation products available for each segmentFull suite of evaluation products available for each segment Surface ProductsSurface Products  Spatial  Time series  Combination Aloft ProductsAloft Products  Spatial  Sounding  Profiler Statistical ProductsStatistical Products  Surface time series  Aloft time series  Tables

6. Evaluation Procedures Need to Summarize ResultsNeed to Summarize Results Monthly ProductsMonthly Products Statistical TablesStatistical Tables Spatial Summary PlotsSpatial Summary Plots “Bakergrams” (annual)“Bakergrams” (annual) “Bakergrams” (monthly)“Bakergrams” (monthly) Spatial Statistical PlotsSpatial Statistical Plots

7. Statistical Charts

8. Monthly VISTAS Statistics

9. Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

10. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

11. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

12. Monthly VISTAS Statistics

13. Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

14. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

15. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

16. Monthly VISTAS Statistics

17. Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

18. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

19. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

20. Monthly VISTAS Statistics

21. Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

22. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

23. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

24. Monthly VISTAS Statistics

25. Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

26. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

27. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

28. Monthly VISTAS Statistics

29. Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

30. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

31. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

32. Monthly VISTAS Statistics

33. Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

34. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

35. Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

36. Monthly VISTAS Statistics

37. Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

38. Day/night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

39. Day/night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

40. Monthly VISTAS Statistics

41. Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

42. Annual Bakergrams

47. Monthly Bakergrams

53. Spatial Plots

66. Performance Summary Modeling Results Are as ExpectedModeling Results Are as Expected Cold Bias in WinterCold Bias in Winter Soil initialization procedure needs improvement (beyond scope of project)Soil initialization procedure needs improvement (beyond scope of project) 10-day soil time scale too long?10-day soil time scale too long? Precip amounts in summer overdone in SE USPrecip amounts in summer overdone in SE US Best performance in VISTAS region for most variables…Best performance in VISTAS region for most variables… Performance is quite good compared with other modeling exercisesPerformance is quite good compared with other modeling exercises Characteristics of the 36km and 12km domains are generally similar, but interesting differencesCharacteristics of the 36km and 12km domains are generally similar, but interesting differences

67. What’s Next For VISTAS’ Meteorological Team Survey VISTAS states regarding:Survey VISTAS states regarding: Performance zones evaluationPerformance zones evaluation What are other RPO’s doing?What are other RPO’s doing? Awaiting results of CART analysisAwaiting results of CART analysis State by State (VISTAS) evaluationState by State (VISTAS) evaluation To support PM2.5 SIP workTo support PM2.5 SIP work Formatting files for CALMET/CALPUFFFormatting files for CALMET/CALPUFF To support state permit modelingTo support state permit modeling Transfers available… Want it? Need 1.2 TB storageTransfers available… Want it? Need 1.2 TB storage 2003 episodic modeling ?2003 episodic modeling ? Episodes could be identified by CART analysisEpisodes could be identified by CART analysis

68. Contact Information http://vistas-sesarm.org/http://vistas-sesarm.org/ http://www.baronams.com/projects/VISTAS/http://www.baronams.com/projects/VISTAS/Michael.Abraczinskas@ncmail.net919-715-3743George.Bridgers@ncmail.net919-715-6287

70. Mammoth Cave Time Series

73. Shenandoah Time Series