1. LOW CLOUDS AND IFR FORECASTING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEN WIDELSKI October 11, 2005

2. BACKGROUND  GLEN COVE, NEW YORK  12/99-09/01: NWS UPTON, NY  11/01-02/02: METRO WEATHER SERVICE  03/02-04/04: NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO  04/04-PRESENT: NWS LUBBOCK

3. AGENDA  BASIC PROCESSES  FORECAST FACTORS  FLIGHT CATEGORIES – REVIEW  NWS AVIATION SOFTWARE/ PRODUCTS  TOOLS OF THE TRADE  YOU MAKE THE CALL- INTERACTIVE  CONCLUSION

4. BASIC PROCESSES  A) LOW CLOUDS - INGREDIENTS I: MOISTURE TRANSPORT (WAA) I: MOISTURE TRANSPORT (WAA) 2: LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) 2: LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) 3: SURFACE WIND FLOW 3: SURFACE WIND FLOW 4: UPSLOPE FLOW 4: UPSLOPE FLOW

5. BASIC PROCESSES  B) FOG –TYPES AND INGREDIENTS 1: RADIATION 1: RADIATION -WIND SPEED 5 KTS OR LESS -WIND SPEED 5 KTS OR LESS -CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY -CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY -SOIL MOISTURE -SOIL MOISTURE 2: ADVECTION 2: ADVECTION -MOISTURE TRANSPORT -MOISTURE TRANSPORT 3: UPSLOPE 3: UPSLOPE

6. NAME THAT FOG! NAME THAT FOG!

7. HOW ABOUT THIS ONE?

8. AND FINALLY…

9. FORECAST FACTORS  CAPROCK

10. FACTORS CON’T  A DISTANT MOISTURE SOURCE

11. FACTORS CONT’D  SLOPING TERRAIN TO THE WEST

12. FAA FLIGHT CATEGORIES  VFR - Visual Flight Rules; Visibility > 5 SM Ceiling > 3000 feet Ceiling > 3000 feet  MVFR - Marginal Visual Flight Rules; Visibility 3 to 5 SM; Ceiling 1000 to 3000 feet  IFR - Instrument Flight Rules; Visibility 1 to <3 statute miles; Ceiling 500 to 900 feet  LIFR - Low Instrument Flight Rules; Visibility <1 statute mile; Ceiling < 500 feet

13. SOFTWARE AND PRODUCTS  TAF - TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST - TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST - 5 NM HOLE AROUND CENTER OF - 5 NM HOLE AROUND CENTER OF RUNWAY COMPLEX RUNWAY COMPLEX - FOUR ROUTINE ISSUANCES PER DAY - FOUR ROUTINE ISSUANCES PER DAY 12Z, 18Z, 00Z AND 06Z 12Z, 18Z, 00Z AND 06Z - SITES: KLBB AND KCDS - SITES: KLBB AND KCDS

14. LOW CLOUD TAF KLBB 101730Z 101818 25008KT P6SM SCT020 SCT200 TEMPO 2201 5SM –TSRA BKN035CB TEMPO 2201 5SM –TSRA BKN035CB FM0100 36012KT P6SM –SHRA SCT020 OVC050 FM0100 36012KT P6SM –SHRA SCT020 OVC050 FM0600 08010KT 4SM BR BKN010 FM0600 08010KT 4SM BR BKN010 FM1000 15012KT 2SM BR BKN006 OVC010 FM1000 15012KT 2SM BR BKN006 OVC010 FM1400 20015KT P6SM SCT020 SCT120 FM1400 20015KT P6SM SCT020 SCT120

15. NWS TAF SOFTWARE  AVNFPS -PART OF AWIPS -PART OF AWIPS

17.  TWEB - TRANSCRIBED WEATHER BROADCAST - TRANSCRIBED WEATHER BROADCAST - TWEB ROUTE: 50 NM WIDE CORRIDOR - TWEB ROUTE: 50 NM WIDE CORRIDOR ALONG A LINE CONNECTING THE ALONG A LINE CONNECTING THE ANCHOR POINTS OF THE ROUTE. ANCHOR POINTS OF THE ROUTE. - FOUR ISSUANCES PER DAY - FOUR ISSUANCES PER DAY - KAMA-KLBB-KMAF - KAMA-KLBB-KMAF

18. LOW CLOUD TWEB LOW CLOUD TWEB 185 TWEB 100314 KAMA-KLBB-KMAF. ALL HGTS AGL EXC TOPS. KAMA-KPVW P6SM –RA SCT020 OVC040 AREAS 4SM TSRA BKN020CB…07Z P6SM SCT010 OVC030 AREAS 2SM BR SHRA OVC010. KPVW-KMAF P6SM SCT020 BKN050 SCT 5SM –RA BR OVC015.

19. TWEB EDITOR

20. TOOLS OF THE TRADE A) UPPER AIR OR MODEL SOUNDINGS A) UPPER AIR OR MODEL SOUNDINGS

21. B) VAD WIND PROFILER

22. C) * SATELLITE DATA * C) * SATELLITE DATA *

23. Equipment Used By The NWS To Monitor The Weather Imagery From Space Satellites

24. D) LOCAL OBSERVATIONS

25. E) MODEL STATISTICS  FOUS14 KWBC 060357 (Forecast office and name, date/time) DCA ESC NGM MOS GUIDANCE 3/06/02 0000 UTC DAY /MAR 6 /MAR 7 /MAR 8 HOUR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 MX/MN 59 39 54 24 TEMP 37 34 33 38 45 53 52 49 46 43 40 42 47 51 42 39 35 30 24 DEW 27 28 28 30 32 36 40 38 41 41 37 33 28 27 25 21 20 19 19 CLDS OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK SC SC SC CL CL CL WDIR 26 18 08 12 14 14 15 18 24 27 28 29 29 29 29 33 01 02 00 WSPD 01 04 06 10 11 12 16 18 13 15 12 20 24 22 14 12 14 08 00 CIG 4 5 4 4 5 6 7 6 3 2 1 5 6 VIS 3 4 3 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 3 4 OBVIS H H H N N N N F F F F H N

26. YOU MAKE THE CALL

27. HEAD TO WORK

28. SAY HELLO TO THE MIC

30. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ROLL IN

31. THE NEW DATA SHOWS…  1 MILE VISIBILITY IN FOG  600 FOOT BROKEN CEILING

32. WHAT FLIGHT CATEGORY?  A) MVFR  B) IFR  C) LIFR  D) VFR  E) LIFR VISIBILITY IFR CEILING IFR CEILING

33. ANSWER  I I I IFR !!

34. CONCLUSION  GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF BASIC PROCESSES CAN MAKE FOR BETTER PLANNING AND PREPARATION.  MUCH DATA AVAILABLE VIA WEB  NWS SINCE 1870 – DEDICATED TO PROVIDING QUALITY PRODUCTS TO THE SOUTH PLAINS