1. In crisis – Energy, the basis of civilisation

2. Population +6billion Doubles every 30 years

3. POPULATION – IS THERE NO END?

4. Relationship between Energy & Income

5. FERTILTY V WEALTH

6. THE NECESSITIES OF LIFE – WHAT WOULD LIFE BE LIKE WITHOUT CHEAP EASY TO USE ENERGY? Energy Need Requirement SHELTERHIGH WARMTHHIGH FOOD HIGH WATERLOW WASTE DISPOSAL MODERATE

7. Coal production peaked in Britain in 1913 Oil started to replace coal in 1930- a liquid easier to use than a solid. GDP tied to energy use!

8. World daily oil production –millions of barrels /day – Have we hit the peak or is it yet to come?

9. Peak Oil concept- oil is a finite resource – sooner or later supplies will dwindle and demand will not be met or alternatives will replace oil. FT 15 Sep 2011

11. Colin Campbell shows the peak of oil production has passed. Others are not so sure! BUT GAS IS STILL TO PEAK

12. Price $/bbl $100 $50 $10 1950-59 2000-09 Light green oil price – money of the day Dark green reference 2010 Oil price 1861 - 2010 Today oil price $125

13. Why does Peak Oil matter? Short answer – when demand threatens to exceed supply the price goes up and a world recession follows until demand drops. With hardships for the many all round the world

14. The Italian and Greek protests - just the beginning of more widespread unrest? Without cheap energy can we afford our present life style!

16. International Energy Agency – World Energy Supply Forecast until 2030 Note fossil fuels predominate- over 75% in 2030

17. Solving the crisis? 1.Explore for and produce more oil and gas 2.Produce more from existing fields 3.Recruit bright young people to add brain power to finding and extracting the maximum amounts of oil and gas. 4.Speed up the development of alternatives 5.Change the way we live

18. Can we achieve forecast?

19. 1.Explore for and produce more oil and gas

20. 2000m 500m Water depth West Africa- deep water Many big oil fields

21. Tullow and partners are spending about $1million every day drilling deepwater wells offshore West Africa with rigs like this

22. The Arctic 6% of the globe with potential for 400 B bbls more oil, about 1/3 of existing reserves Problems – ice, ownership of territory, production systems

27. Global warming is a reality- These young ladies are sitting on the North Pole (Photo Courtesy DMcInroy)

28. Shale Gas – The Fuel of the future?

31. 2. Produce more from existing fields

32. Use 4D – Repeat 3D surveys to find where oil is left in reservoir Maximise oil recovery

33. Draugen Field Norway –courtesy Schlumberger

34. Use miscible flood to recover over 15% more oil

35. Tertiary Recovery in Texas. Reservoir is flooded with CO2 and 17% more oil recovered

36. 3. Recruit bright young people Youth and brilliance plus age and experience is a winning formula to find more oil and gas

37. Cutting from Financial Times 29 September 2011 Y

39. Destination of Post Graduates from certain Universities in UK

40. 4. Speed up the development of alternatives

44. Y Cutting from the Financial Times 29 Sep 2011

45. Change the way we live – is there any hope? Newt Gingrich said avoid smaller cars because gun racks could not be fitted in them

47. Conclusions The crisis is now. It is not the banks fault. We have run out of cheap energy. We must produce more fossil fuels particularly oil to give time to develop cheap alternatives We need more bright young people to work at discovering and producing oil and gas in difficult places Or accept a lower standard of living and change the way we live. This may not happen without a revolution.