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Internet on Democratization Samantha Anderson Min Woong Choi Griffin Cohen The Effect Of Prof. Vreeland 15 Oct 2013
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Research Question Internet Democratization
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Hypothesis Internet growth will the likelihood of democratization in autocratic regimes – Internet facilitates communications, both domestically and internationally Thus, gives “people” more power increase Also: -Democracies should both have more Internet users and Internet growth -In the years prior to democratization, countries should see increasing Internet growth
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Arab Spring (2011)
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Debate Globalization’s effects on world and politics Open Networks Closed Regimes: The Impact of the Internet on Authoritarian Rule By Shanthi Kalathil & Taylor C. Boas The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall By Ian Bremmer
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Democratization (1995 – 2008, data from Prof. Vreeland): 25 Total Nigeria 1999 Taiwan 1996 Niger 2000 Thailand 2008 Kenya 1998 Burundi 2005 *Sierra Leone 1996 Comoros 2004 Pakistan 2008 Kyrgyzstan 2005 Liberia 2006 *Guinea-Bissau 2000 Nepal 2008 Georgia 2004 Senegal 2000 Maldives 2008 Ecuador 2002 Indonesia 1999 Mauritania 2007 Bhutan 2007 *Sierra Leone 1998 Mexico 2000 *Guinea-Bissau 2004 Peru 2001 Serbia and Montenegro 2000
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Case Studies Russia Ukraine China North African Countries Tunisia
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Methodology Merging Data Sets WDI and Vreeland Democracy Data from 1995-2008 25 Countries transition from Dictatorship to Democracy New Variables Internet Growth per Year Regime Changes Regime Transition Weighted -Year of transition = 3 -1 Year before = 2 -2 Years before = 1 -All others = 0 Number of Aggregate Transitions per Year Statistical Tests: Correlation Regression Fixed Regression Graphs (two-way, quadratic, and simple bar graphs)
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Do File: Merging Datasets
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Do File: New Variables
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Internet and New Variables
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Preliminary Results
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Internet Users Effect on Democracy
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Internet Users Effect on Democracy (Quadratic Fit)
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Number of Democratizations per year 5 4 3 2 1
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Internet Users Growth For World per Year
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Internet Growth per Years Before Democratization All Other Years 2 years prior 1 year prior Year of
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Effect of Internet Growth Rate on Nearing a Democratization
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Effect of Regime type on Internet Growth Rate Dictatorship Democracy
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Internet Growth Variable Internet Growth
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Effect of Regime type on Number of Internet Users Dictatorship Democracy
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Future Research Region-specific analysis Data when Democracies fall and become Dictatorships Control for other variables besides GDP
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Implications Effect of Internet on Democratization (If proves robust…) China Globalization Countries looking for Democratization should focus on Internet growth Dictatorships should try to suppress communications and Internet
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