1. Mapping Science to Measurement Requirements for GEO-CAPE Presented by Annmarie Eldering Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology TES Science Team Meeting February 24, 2009, Boulder, CO Contributors: Kevin Bowman, Meemong Lee, Zheng Qu, Mathew Yeates, Paul Hamer, Changsub Shim, John Worden JPL Clearance: N/A Last Modified:2/24/2009 National Aeronautics and Space Administration www.nasa.gov Jet Propulsion Laboratory 1California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA

2. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology 2 Introduction to GEO-CAPE From the decadal survey, GEO-CAPE science objectives -

3. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology 3 GEO-CAPE Science Objectives Atmospheric Science  Air quality assessments several times daily and forecasting to support air program management and public health  Measure emission of ozone and aerosol precursors including human versus natural sources  Monitor pollutant transport into, across, and out of North, Central, and South America  Detect, track, and predict the location of extreme pollution events such as large puff releases from environmental disasters, and plumes from wildfires Ocean Science  Quantify response of marine ecosystems to short-term physical events, such as passage of storms and tidal mixing  Assess importance of variability in coupled biological-physical coastal ecosystem models  Monitor biotic and abiotic material in transient surface features, such as river plumes and tidal fronts  Detect, track, and predict the location of hazardous materials, such as oil spills, ocean waste disposal, and harmful algal blooms  Detect floods from various sources including river overflows Geostationary orbit enables continuous continental & regional observations

4. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology Practically designing a mission  Take broad science objectives and …..  Develop specific measurement requirements (species, precision, accuracy, vertical resolution, temporal resolution)  Develop instrument designs that can meet the measurement requirements  Identify strategy for using instrument to meet science goals (observation scenario and mission design) OSSE: The ozone case 4

5. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 5 Why GEO-CAPE needs advances:  GEO-CAPE science questions with societal impacts push us towards a new way of measuring ozone –Improve air quality forecast skill –Quantify impacts of pollution transport on regional to continental scales –Monitor pollution emissions CMAQ Using TES Boundary Conditions CMAQ Prior to use of TES  Current measurements fall short for these science goals –Limited sensitivity to the lower layers of the atmosphere –Observations at best twice per day

6. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology Key Questions for GEO-CAPE  Vertical resolution and boundary layer sensitivity, especially with regard to ozone – do we need it, can we do it?  Is rule of thumb of hourly resolution driven by science?  Toolsets: – Simulated retrievals and sensitivity tests – OSSEs that marry retrievals and assimilation to see impact of measurements – adjoints to quantify relationships of measurement variables and science variables OSSE: The ozone case 6

7. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 7 Suggestions in the literature  Simulations based on existing instrument configurations (TES+OMI) show that combination of UV/vis and IR should have better sensitivity to the boundary layer (Worden et al, 2007; Landgraf & Hasenkamp, 2007).  We have extended this to test in wide range of atmospheric conditions, range of mission designs, and in end-use science applications

8. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 8 Assimilation System Reference model fields Spatio-temporal sampling Propagation to instrument Instrument model Observations Geophysical parameter estimation Sampled geophysical fields Estimated fields or parameters - Compare science metrics Model prediction Estimate model fields or parameters Update model - Observation operator Exploiting OSSEs in the Mission Design Process

9. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 9 Our experiments  First phase focused on getting the right instrument sensitivity  In second phase, will study mission design in more detail  How we compare instrument & mission ideas:  Averaging kernels - are they sensitive in the region of interest?  Bias statistics - does the bias meet the requirements?  Maps of characteristics - will the spatial characteristics meet science goals?  Assimilate into model - assess ability to capture features of interest  Air quality forecast - test ideas against forecast skill

10. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 10 Instrument designs evaluated  Using instrument designs in the realm of EOS capabilities.  First plots focus on 6 combinations  IR: 970-1080 cm -1  UV/vis: 312-344 nm better OMI AIRS TES IR instrumentsUV instruments

11. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 11 Simulation Sampling  Use GEOS-CHEM and regional model fields and geostationary viewing  Assimilate into GEOS-CHEM

12. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 12 Metrics in our Analysis Pdf of truth – retrieved -Used to derive bias (mean value of pdf) - And rms (rms of distribution)

13. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 13 Can we design an instrument to measure O3 to 5ppb at 825 hPa?? UV only IR only

14. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 14 Combinations Combo - high noise, low res Combo - low noise, high res

15. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 15 Looking over the range of cases  Lower spectral resolution IR instrument (used alone or in combination with UV/vis) have large bias and rms  Combined high-spectral resolution IR and uv/vis have low bias and rms bias Rms

16. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology Next Steps  Complete analysis of cross-over region (3.2 and 3.6 micron) for ozone  Extends to other molecules – how important is SO2 to the science of GEO-CAPE, can a joint retrieval improve sensitivity??  Concept extends beyond GEO-CAPE to many molecules –CO – explored by MOPITT –CO2 and CH4 – we may see some interesting information from GO-SAT OSSE: The ozone case 16

17. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology Assimilation of Simulated Data  Current OSSE includes assimilation into GEOS-CHEM (2 by 2.5 degrees).  We can look at impact of simulated measurements on ozone at various levels of the atmosphere – will the measurements help us answer our science questions?  What is the impact of only a GEO measurement versus GEO plus a LEO??  Assimilation opportunities – multiple species (ozone and precursors) and regional models OSSE: The ozone case 17

18. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology Sensitivity between states or parameters The sensitivity between states can be calculated this way or that way

19. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology Sensitivity Analysis: August 1st, 2006, sensitivity of NY ozone at 2:30 pm to its precursors target region region of maximum sensitivity of boundary layer ozone in New York to free tropospheric NOx The sensitivity of ozone in NY to free tropospheric NOx on 7/29/06 over Chicago is roughly half of the sensitivity to local NOx on 08/01/06

20. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology How sensitive is ozone to local NO x ? Boundary layer ozone is sensitive to local NOx up to 3 days before Strong diurnal variation Highest sensitivity to morning NOx

21. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology The maximum sensitivity of ozone in NY to free tropospheric ozone is roughly.2 two days before. Does knowing free tropospheric ozone improve boundary layer ozone prediction?

22. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology Does knowing ozone today improve ozone predictability for the following day? The sensitivity of ozone to ozone on 07/31/08 is about half of ozone on 08/01/08

23. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 23 Conclusions  It is critical to tie the science questions to measurement requirements and then instrument requirements for GEO-CAPE  We have toolset for quickly making a relative comparison of nadir viewing instruments designs for atmospheric composition with simulated retrievals, assimilation, and adjoints  Analysis suggests that boundary level ozone can be measured with UV/vis paired with high spectral resolution (0.06) IR with good noise characteristics  Mission design (footprint size, frequency of measurements) to be evaluated in geostationary framework  More analysis by atmospheric sciences community important to develop consensus and move GEO-CAPE forward

24. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology BACKUP OSSE: The ozone case 24

25. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 25 Outline: Motivation: Measuring tropospheric pollution and air quality from space for GEO-CAPE Approach: Evaluation of possible approaches for ozone – focused on 825 hPa Conclusion There are instrument designs that can measure boundary layer ozone Use of uv/vis and high spectral resolution IR wavelengths together are needed to have low bias and low rms in 825 hPa ozone GEOS-CHEM adjoint being used to quantify spatial and temporal relationships

26. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology Comparing statistics: varying width of IR window UV only OSSE: The ozone case 26 IR only UV + IR Narrow window 1043-1075 wider window 970-1080 Bias: 1.46 rms: 14.6 Bias: -4.42 rms: 16.9 Bias: 0.87 rms: 6.03 Bias: -2.44 rms: 15.4Bias: -0.02 rms: 6.51

27. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology Preparing to include 3.6 microns  Need to perform radiative transfer calculations with both solar terms and thermal emission OSSE: The ozone case 27

28. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology Verifying RT calculations in LIDORT OSSE: The ozone case 28 Wavenumber (2778 cm -1 = 3.6 microns)

29. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology Next Steps  Complete characterizations of 3.6 micron window  combine with UV/vis and IR  break down UV/vis into more specific bands (as Kelly Chance has outlined) OSSE: The ozone case 29

30. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 30 Sampling the field + retrievals  Can select orbit parameters and footprints, profiles then selected from field.  Generate radiance, apply instrument function, and use linearized optimal estimation to generate simulated retrievals and error characterization (as well as averaging kernels). Orbiter-2D

31. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 31 Comparing requirements to simulated performance Focus on the ozone requirements from the NRC white paper - JANZ All figures for 825 hPa Yellow box marks requirement Mean bias @ 825hPa for all simulated instruments For one simulation, histogram of error For one simulation, distribution of error

32. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 32 Where do we go from here?  Important science questions with societal impacts push us towards a new way of measuring ozone (GEO-CAPE) –Improve air quality forecast skill –Quantify impacts of pollution transport on regional to continental scales –Monitor pollution emissions CMAQ Using TES Boundary Conditions CMAQ Prior to use of TES  Current measurements fall short for these science goals –Limited sensitivity to the lower layers of the atmosphere –Observations at best twice per day

33. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 33 Suggestions in the literature  Simulations based on existing instrument configurations (TES+OMI) show that combination of UV/vis and IR should have better sensitivity to the boundary layer.  We have extended this to test in wide range of atmospheric conditions, range of mission designs, and in end-use science applications

34. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 34 Using OSSEs to more fully evaluate possible approaches (getting to the right design for the INSTRUMENT and the MISSION): Science question used to define measurement requirements Instrument designed to meet measurement requirements (sensitivity) Mission designed to meet measurement requirements (frequency of samples) Thoroughly test in simulated science analysis

35. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory - California Institute of Technology OSSE: The ozone case 35 Measuring ozone from Space  We have a long history of space based measurements  Many nadir viewing approaches, key for tropospheric measurements –Total column ozone from SBUV, TOMS, and OMI based on uv/vis – GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2 –Infrared sounder measurements » AIRS total column » TES - profiles with ability to differentiate the upper and lower troposphere » IASI - total columns and some thick layer vertical information