1. 1 Opposite phases of the Antarctic Oscillation and Relationships with Intraseasonal to Interannual Activity in the Tropics during the Austral Summer (submitted to J. Climate) Leila M. V. Carvalho 1,2,Charles Jones 1, and Tercio Ambrizzi 2 1 ICESS, University of California, Santa Barbara 2 Dept. Atmospheric Science, Universidade de São Paulo

2. 2 MOTIVATION: The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is known as the leading mode of variability of extratropical circulation in the Southern Hemisphere This mode of variability is characterized by deep and zonally symmetric or “annular” structures (Thompson and Wallace 2000) with opposite geopotential height perturbations over the pole and approximately in a zonal ring with center around 45 o S. The annular and zonally symmetric structure involves exchanges of mass between mid and high latitudes.

3. 3 FOCUS: Observational investigation of the variability of the AAO during the austral summer (DJF)Observational investigation of the variability of the AAO during the austral summer (DJF) ADDRESSED ISSUES : 1)Are distinct AAO phases related to the variability of convection and circulation in the tropics such as El Niño/La Niña? 2)Similarly, given the depth of the annular mode, can phases of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) be related to phases of AAO? 3) On intraseasonal timescales, do tropical anomalies such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation modulate the phases of the AAO? 4) What are the key teleconnection mechanisms linking the tropical activity to extratropics and, therefore, AAO? 4) What are the key teleconnection mechanisms linking the tropical activity to extratropics and, therefore, AAO?

4. 4 1.The Daily AAO Index 1979-2000 The daily AAO index is computed as the leading mode of the EOF analysis of daily anomalies of the 700hPa geopotential height (H700) from Reanalysis (20-90 S). Positive (negative) phases of the AAO : defined when the time coefficient of the first EOF is greater (less) than 1 standard deviation of the DJF time series. POSITIVE PHASE

5. 5 POSITIVE AAO PHASES: 349 DAYS IN 70 INDEPENDENT EVENTS NEGATIVE AAO PHASES: 326 DAYS IN 40 INDEPENDENT EVENTS. PERIOD: DJF 1979-2000 PERSISTENCE: Number of consecutive days during positive (negative) phases 75% 25% 75% Maximum Median

6. 6 2. The Role of Low-Frequency Anomalies ENSO ENSO Several previous studies have shown the impacts of ENSO in modifying convection and the circulation patterns from tropics to extratropics QBO QBO Other studies have suggested the existence of links between QBO and ENSO (e.g. Gray et al. 1992) Easterly phases -> El Nino Easterly phases -> El Nino Westerly phases -> La Nina Westerly phases -> La Nina Are AAO phases related to both low-frequency forcing ? Are AAO phases related to both low-frequency forcing ?How?

7. 7 Composites of SST and 200 hPa zonal wind (U200 LF ): Low-Frequency ( Retained Periods: above 365 days) Negative AAO PhasePositive AAO Phase U200 LF SST LF

8. 8 The Lower Stratosphere : Composites for Low- Frequency Zonal Winds in 50hPa (U50 LF ) Negative AAO PositiveAAO EASTERLY QBO PHASE WESTERLY QBO PHASE

9. 9 Relationships between ENSO patterns and AAO for DJF : Combined EOF was computed with: H700, U200 (daily anomalies) and OLR low frequency (OLR LF ) H700 OLR LF U200

10. 10 Intraseasonal Activity and AAO Phases Tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies (TICA) such as MJO are known as playing an important role in modulating convection patterns in the tropics and circulation patterns in both tropics and extratropics (e.g. Hendon and Salby 1994). Tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies (TICA) such as MJO are known as playing an important role in modulating convection patterns in the tropics and circulation patterns in both tropics and extratropics (e.g. Hendon and Salby 1994). Some previous works have suggested that MJO may interact with El Nino episodes Some previous works have suggested that MJO may interact with El Nino episodes Nonetheless, there is significant interannual variability in the frequency of TICA (e.g. Jones et al. 2003) Nonetheless, there is significant interannual variability in the frequency of TICA (e.g. Jones et al. 2003) Therefore TICA events may be an important intraseasonal forcing for circulation in the tropics and extratropics : IMPORTANCE FOR AAO PHASES Therefore TICA events may be an important intraseasonal forcing for circulation in the tropics and extratropics : IMPORTANCE FOR AAO PHASES

11. 11 Lag composites (Days) OLR anomalies (20-70 days Lag composites (Days) OLR anomalies (20-70 days) NEGATIVE AAO POSITIVE AAO LAG 0 LAG +5 LAG +10 LAG +15 LAG +20 LAG +25 LAG 0 LAG +5 LAG +10 LAG +15 LAG +20 LAG +25

12. 12 AAO AND TELECONECTIONS WITH THE TROPICS Teleconnection patterns were examined by applying the Wallace and Gutzler(1981) methodology: Teleconnection patterns were examined by applying the Wallace and Gutzler(1981) methodology: 1. Variable investigated : Zonal Wind 200hPa (daily anomalies ) 2. Positive and negative AAO events were analyzed separately 3. A correlation matrix is obtained by calculating the temporal (simultaneous) correlation coefficients between anomalies at any given point ui (from 90S to 40S and all longitudes- annular modes have large amplitudes) and anomalies at every gridpoint uj (from 90S to 90N and all longitudes). 3. A correlation matrix  C is obtained by calculating the temporal (simultaneous) correlation coefficients between anomalies at any given point ui (from 90S to 40S and all longitudes- annular modes have large amplitudes) and anomalies at every gridpoint uj (from 90S to 90N and all longitudes). 4. The element c ij of the matrix is the correlation of anomalies at a gridpoint u i with anomalies at the gridpoint u j. The teleconnectivity T i of the gridpoint u i is defined as the strongest negative element c ij of the matrix C, for all gridpoints u j : T i = minimum [c ij ] for all u j T i = minimum [c ij ] for all u j

13. 13 Teleconnection Patterns obtained for U200 (40 o S-90 o S) NEGATIVE POSITIVE DIFFERENCE Equatward shift of the Subtropical Jet Weakening Polar Jet Strengthening of the Polar Jet Poleward shift subtropical jet Westerly jets can act as Rossby waveguides for propagation from tropics to midlatitudes

14. 14  QBO  Deep Tropical Convection  sea level pressure  Equatorial west wind anomalies  Kelvin waves  MJO Possible warm pool build up  SST =>  ENSO Intensification and Equatorward shift of the subtropical Jet Poleward shift of the subtropical Jet Intensification of the Polar jet Cold SST Warm SST Dominant Negative AAO Dominant Positive AAO Gray et al (1992) Mechanism CONCLUSIONS:

15. 15 Extratropical Cyclones properties – Murray and Simmonds (1991) tracking scheme