1. Real-Time High-Resolution MM5 and WRF Forecasts during RAINEX John P. Cangialosi 1*, S. S. Chen 1, W. Zhao 1, D. Ortt 1 W. Wang 2 and J. Michalakas 2 1 University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 2 NCAR/MMM, Boulder, CO *Current affiliation: NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL

3. Objectives During the RAINEX field program (Aug-Sept 2005): Conduct a real-time mini ensemble of high-resolution model forecasts for the RAINEX flight mission planning. In this study: Evaluate and validate the RAINEX mini ensemble and global model forecasts of the storm track, intensity, structure, and rainfall for Hurricanes Katrina, Ophelia and Rita. Examine the models’ skill in tropical cyclogenesis.

6. Models UM/RSMAS MM5 (& WRF): Domains - three nested grids (15, 5, 1.67km) Physics – Blackadar PBL, Reisner microphysics Initial & Lateral B.C. - GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, CMC 3-5 day forecasts daily at 0000 UTC NCAR/MMM WRF: Domains - two nested grids (12 and 4km) Physics – NYSU PBL, Thompson microphysics, etc. Initial & Lateral B.C. – GFDL (or GFS if GFDL is not available) 3-5 day forecasts daily at 0000 UTC

7. RAINEX model configuration When no storm is present At least 4 models run daily at 00 UTC from Aug 15 - Sept 30 MM5-gfs, MM5-cmc, MM5-nogaps, WRF-gfs and MM5-gfdl (when available) 1-domain 15 km resolution (200 x 300 grid pts.)

8. High-Resolution Multi-nested Vortex-Following Numerical Models at University of Miami: UM/RSMAS Coupled Atmos- Wave-Ocean Model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model 15 km 1.6 km 5 km Mini ensemble MM5 and WRF forecasts using GFS, NOGAPS, CMC, and GFDL forecast fields as initial and lateral boundary conditions

9. RAINEX modeling configuration When a storm is present Additional high-resolution MM5 and WRF simulations are conducted in 2 and 3 domains. 15 km 5 km (121 x 121) grid pts. 1.67 km (151 x 151) grid pts.

10. Insert slide here….. Model output without adjusting for initial track error

11. Hurricane Rita 72 h

12. Hurricane Ophelia

13. Intensity verification Model output without adjusting for initial track error

15. Hurricane Katrina

16. Hurricane Ophelia

17. Hurricane Structure 0730 UTC Aug 29 (37-h WRF forecast) 245 nm 150 nm ~ 250 nm ~150 nm

18. Hurricane Rainfall 16-20 in. MM5-cmc 5km 48-h forecast

19. TC Genesis Satellite imagery MM5-cmc 66 h forecast

21. Conclusions High-resolution mini-ensemble forecasts in real-time are valuable for mission planning and overall understanding of the storm structure, rainfall, evolution, and intensity change. High-resolution MM5 and WRF improve intensity forecasts significantly compared with the global models. However, the track errors are still large, especial MM5 timing errors in Hurricane Rita. Accurate initial and lateral boundary conditions for high-res models are needed.

22. Acknowledgments  Support from JOSS, UNIDATA, CMC, GFDL, NCEP, NOGAPS is critical to the success of RAINEX real- time forecasts.  RAINEX is support by NSF research grants ATM- 0432623 and ATM-0432717.