1. DET Module 5 Products and Display Tara Jensen 1 and Paula McCaslin 2 1 NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO 2 NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO Acknowledgements: HWT Spring Experiment Participants, HMT West Participants, CAPS SSEF Team, NOAA/ESRL HFIP Team, NOAA/ESRL LAPS Team, NOAA/ESRL ALPS Development Team, and others

2. Motivation Growing demand for easy-to-interpret ensemble products available to the end- user Well constructed products allow more valuable evaluation of ensemble skill Community needs means to explore and test product generation methods and display capabilities

3. Products Module Goals Module should provide the ability to specify techniques for ◦ Deriving information from the ensemble ◦ Generating probabilistic products ◦ Providing decision support services ◦ And more… Two areas: ◦ Product Generation ◦ Display Capabilities

4. Where Products Module Fits Initial and Physics Pert. Modules Statistical PP Modules Module 5: Products Verification Module Generation Display External Input (HMT, HWT, HFIP, etc)

5. Pre-generated Products DET will leverage its collaborations * to gather algorithms for baseline pre-generated products * (with NCEP, ESRL, NCAR, AFWA, CAPS, NSSL, SPC, HPC, OHD and others) Deterministic-style Products ◦ Simple mean, spread ◦ Weighted Mean ◦ Bias Corrected mean ◦ Probability Matching ◦ Maximum member Probability Products ◦ Simple Ensemble Frequency ◦ Neighborhood Smoothed Ensemble Frequency NSSL Q2 QPE SSEF Simple PQPF SREF Simple PQPF SSEF PN PQPF NAM QPFSSEF PM QPF QPFQPF Courtesy of Tara Jensen Web Display

6. Displays DET will also use its collaborations to gather algorithms and concepts for baseline displays Spaghetti Plots Postage Stamps Time Series Soundings Verification Plots Courtesy of: Steve Weiss and Adam Clark HWT Spring Experiment 2010 (NAWIPS system) Plot: One type of spaghetti (Simulated Radar Reflectivity) Use: Determine potential envelope of storm path

7. Some Additional Display Options Courtesy of: ALPS Development Team Courtesy of: Paula McCaslin Courtesy of: Huiling Yuan & Isidora Jankov

8. Operational Display Systems AWIPS for NWS/WFOs ◦ Regional scale ◦ Currently In Use to be replaced by AWIPS-II N-AWIPS for NWS/Forecast Centers ◦ CONUS scale ◦ Currently In Use to be replaced by AWIPS-II ◦ Ensemble Display capability using stored procedures CHPS for OHD and RFCs ◦ CONUS scale ◦ In Operational Testing ◦ Ensemble Display capability

9. Operational Display Systems AWIPS-II (Both Regional and National Scales) ◦ The future platform ◦ First phase to provide current functionality (based on OB9) migrated to new architecture  New Architecture: Service Oriented Architecture  Based on Java, Javascript, XML, *Note: Python may be used  Interaction with GFE  Google Map zoom capability ◦ Second phase will include extensions to new capability, including new display methods for ensemble data

10. Research Display Systems ALPS (Developed at NOAA/ESRL/GSD) Based on AWIPS Plans to transition functionality to AWIPS-II research workstation Dynamic calculation of standard ensemble values like mean, max, spread Spaghetti Plots with dynamic mean and spread calculation Color coding to support analysis of model core clustering

11. Examples Research Display Systems Universities University of Washington (UWME and UW EnKF) Penn State (MREF) OU CAPS (SSEF) etc… Government Labs 3D method based on VIS5D (NCEP) Human Derived Risk Forecasts (e.g. SPC) Descision Support Probability Plots (FNMOC/AFWA) Hurricane Track and Intensity Probabilities (e.g. NHC, GFDL, and ESRL/GSD) etc… Many are web-based displays of Postage Stamps, Mean-Spread, Probability Fields

12. Web-based Display Systems Facilitates interactive information, interoperability, user-centered designs, and collaboration Researchers and Forecasters can evaluate products/displays without having an instance of the current workstation Examples: ◦ NOAA/NWS Doppler RIDGE (Radar Integrated Display with Geospatial Elements) using Open Layers (http://radar.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2) ◦ UKMO's popular Weather Map using Google Maps Layers (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/) ◦ ESRL Display for tropical cyclone prediction using Google Maps and JavaScript (http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks)

13. Courtesy of: Paula McCaslin Example: ESRL Interactive Display for Ensemble Model Tropical Forecasts

14. Benchmark Ultimately - AWIPS II system While AWIPS II is being developed, proxy benchmarks to consider: ◦ NAWIPS ◦ ALPS ◦ NOAA Open Layers Web Solution

15. System Requirements Input data: ◦ Standard model output formats ◦ NetCDF ◦ GRIB1 and 2 Output data: ◦ AWIPS-II NetCDF ◦ CF-Compliant NetCDF (if different from AWIPS-II NetCDF) ◦ GRIB 1 and 2 Proposed Languages: ◦ Products: Python, Fortran77 and 90, C, C++ ◦ Display: Python, JavaScript, Java

16. Major Tasks Determine framework and optimal languages for modularity and plug-compatibility with N-AWIPS and AWIPS-II Develop generalized framework for: 1.Product Generation 2.Display Test system using methods already developed Evaluate alternative methods Set up procedures tech transfer to operational centers (i.e. NCEP, AFWA, NWS Offices and Centers, etc…).

17. Year 1-4 Module Goals 1) Evaluate ensemble products for scientific integrity and human impact. 2) Develop interface to allow model output to plug into decision support products. 3) Develop interface to allow model output to plug into operational platforms including NAWIPS and AWIPS II. 4) Evaluate methods for determining probability of occurrence at grid point (i.e. straight calculation, weighted calculation, applying a smoothing filter before or after, downscaling or upscaling probability). 5) Explore ways to make spaghetti plots more meaningful.

18. Tentative Timeline Year 1 – Planning and Initial Investigation ◦ Workshop feedback ◦ DTC collaborations with HMT, HWT, HFIP, other ◦ Web / Literature Search Year 2 – System Development and Testing Year 3 – System Implemented ◦ Available for first extensive tests ◦ Planning for extension of capability Year 4 – R2O discussions with NCEP, NWS, AFWA, etc…

19. Questions for Working Group Which product generation and display methods show greatest promise? Should we only be gearing toward AWIPS II or should we think beyond that to web- based displays for the research community? At what point and how should we include social scientists in this portion of the testbed?