1. Tsunami risk in South Asia Dale Dominey-Howes Macquarie University Sydney, Australia

2. Structure of the presentation Short context Outline relative global risk Explore risk in the Asia-Pacific region – frequency-magnitude Recommendations for the industry Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk

3. Introduction and context We now know what tsunami are They are generated in four separate ways Tsunami magnitude is a measure of wave height at shore Tsunami intensity is a measure of wave effect Tsunami have dramatic effects on human and environmental systems Remainder of this talk will outline relative global risk before summarising risk in the Asia-Pacific region Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk

4. Causes Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk

5. Tsunami Magnitude Tsunami intensity? Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk

6. Magnitude data across the globe Analysis for specific “Cresta zones” www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html

7. Economic and insurance costs UN estimate of rebuild costs – US$10 – 12.5 bn As of April 2005, insured losses estimated at US$2.5 – 4 bn Major insurers / reinsurers reporting relatively low losses Insurance losses remarkably light – low wealth areas with little (catastrophe) insurance Little domestic property and business insurance Affected multiple classes: Life and health Buildings, contents and infrastructure Business interruption loss Travel Motor Marine etc Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk

8. http://www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html Relative Global Risk – historic distribution

9. Large tsunami: = 6:100 years! Two on-line catalogues: Russian catalogue from 1628 BC – 2,200 events American catalogue from 49 BC – over 2,000 events Relative Global Risk

10. Tsunami risk in the Asia-Pacific region SAM HAW CAM A-A K-K JAP PHI IND NGS NZT (After Gusiakov, 2005)

11. Efficiency of tsunami generation RegionEQKTsunamiTE (%) South America*12210284 Indonesia*866879 Philippines735575 NG – Sol Islands1308664 Central America1126255 Japan25512348 Alaska – Aleutians 1084946 Kuril – Kamchatka 1506845 NZL – Tonga1626238 Hawai’i*313433 Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk

12. Tsunami Risk in South Asia? Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake Tsunamigenic zones? Past tsunami events? Frequency – magnitude? Future risk? IO Warning System and public awareness and mitigation techniques

13. Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry Fundamental research on documentary and geological record of tsunami

14. Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry Use of improved records of tsunami to examine frequency-recurrence and magnitude estimates for at risk areas

15. Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry Development and application of tsunami vulnerability assessment frameworks and the development of appropriate building code standards and best practice design

16. Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry Reassessment of insurance asset exposure to tsunami loss and careful pricing of premiums to accurately take account of potential tsunami losses

17. Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry Increased collaboration between relevant stakeholders to improve community education and to promote risk reduction measures

18. Acknowledgements Organisers for invitation to make this presentation Thanks to Aon Re Australia Ltd for their support in to research in to tsunami Any questions? Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk