1. TEMPEST WP1

2. Aims Three main aims:-  WP 1.1 Systematic assessment of CMIP5 cyclones. 1.Atlantic-European sector. 2.Verification against re-analyses. 3.Response to climate change, RCP4.5, 8.5. 4.Focus on extreme storms, winds and precip. 5.Identify mechanisms for change with WP2 and 3.

3. Aims  WP1.2 Composite cyclone structures. 1.Explore composite structures of cyclones. 2.In particular moist processes. 3.Any changes with climate change.  WP1.3 Natural Variability 1.ACRE 100y re-analysis. 2.CMIP5, pre-industrial control, >500y. 3.Millennial, e.g. ECHAM5

4. Methodology  Apply TRACK objective tracking. 1.Standard statistics, track, genesis, lysis densities. 2.Intensity distributions for properties along tracks, e.g. MSLP, winds, precip., vorticity. 3.Monte Carlo significance testing for verification/changes. 4.Cyclone compositing for structure and lifecycles; orientation and tilts.  Traditional analyses, e.g. Large scale.

5. People TEMPEST  Giuseppe Zappa, post-doc; CMIP5 analysis.  Matt Hawcroft, PhD; diabatic processes, compositing. Associated  Robert Lee, PhD; Re-analyses, CMIP5 analysis.  Tom Philp, PhD; satellite observations and cyclones – re-analyses.  Adrian Champion, PhD; downscaling; DEMON.

6. Previous Results ECHAM5 (925hPa) HiGEM (850hPa) Track Density Wind Speed

7. Compositing ERA40HiGEM 925hPa system relative winds

8. Work So Far (Re-Analyses) ERAI-NCEP (Track density)ERAI-NCEP (Genesis density) Winds (925hPa) QS v Interim (10m)

9. ATHENA (Synoptic) T159 - InterimT2047 - Interim MSLP925hPa Winds850hPa Vorticity

10. ATHENA – Climate Change T159, A1B-20CT1279, A1B-20C Track Density Differences

11. Downscaling