1. French contribution to T-NAWDEX G. Rivière, P. Arbogast CNRM-GAME, CNRS & Météo-France Karlsruhe, 03/20/2013

2. French teams / labs involved in T-NAWDEX topics CNRM-GAME (Joint lab between Météo-France and CNRS) Dynamical synoptic meteorology (P. Arbogast, G. Rivière, A. Joly, M. Drouard, B. Coronel) Adaptive observations / assimilation (N. Fourrié, A. Doerenbecher) Ensemble prediction (C. Labadie, P. Cebron, B. Joly) Laboratoire d’aérologie Mesoscale group (E. Richard, J-P. Chaboureau, D. Lambert, S. Fresnay) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Mesoscale and synoptic meteorology (C. Claud, G. Lapeyre)

3. Recent activities CNRS-INSU project: EPIGONE (Excitation, propagation and impact of the North Atlantic waveguide over Europe, 2010-2012). Idealized case study Winter storm case studies using operational forecast model Storm Xynthia 3 PhDs: Trajectory and deepening of extratropical storms (L. Oruba) Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones (F. Pantillon) Rossby wave breaking and Atlantic weather regime transitions (C. Michel) Analysis of hurricane Helene (use of very-high resol NH model over the whole Atlantic)

4. Current activities and near future DYNASTIE (DYNamics of the Atlantic Storm-Track and its Impact over Europe) ; submitted to ANR; 3 years (2014-2016); requested funds: 340 k €. Main objectives: To analyze the dynamics and predictability of the North Atlantic waveguide from various numerical approaches To prepare scientific questions to address during T-NAWDEX

5. Potential airborne measurements: Falcon 20 (mid- to upper troposphere) Flying performances: Usual cruising speed : 150 m/s (min 82m/s max 254 m/s) Max. endurance: 5 h Max range: 4100 km Ceiling: 42 000 ft (12000 m) Possible measurements: Radar RASTA reflectivity (IWC, droplet size) Lidar « retrodiffusion » (semi-transparent cloud, BL) Drop sonde launching (profiles of T, p, hum, u, v, w) Time (h) Height (km)

6. Potential airborne measurements: ATR 42 (low to mid-troposphere Flying performances: Usual cruising speed : 100m/s (min 70m/s max 134 m/s) Max. endurance: 6 h Max range at 4000m: 3000km Ceiling: 25000 ft (7500 m) Examples of measurements: In-situ microphysics (cloud liquid water content, droplet size) Turbulence (heat fluxes, momentum flux)

7. French contribution to measurements: Boundary-layer Balloons Aeroclipper: Need of convergent winds to attract the balloon into the system of interest (first success for a tropical cyclone, Vasco, 2007). Sampling at 50m. Usefulness for sampling starting regions of warm conveyor belts in the boundary layer ?

8. Météo-France forecast products: deterministic forecasts of the global model Deterministic forecast from a global model (ARPEGE) Web site dedicated to the DIAMET field campaign Probable resolution in 2016: 7 km over Western Europe

9. Météo-France forecast products: ensemble forecast Ensemble forecast from the global ARPEGE model (35 members; cyclone trajectories) Probable resolution in 2016: ~10 km over Western Europe

10. Météo-France forecast products: satellite data inversion Relative humidity satellite retrieval Relative humidity analysis longitude latitude pressure longitude Microwave humidity sounder from IASI

11. Other potential forecast products Sensitivity to PV anomalies on real time. Example of winter storm Klaus: tropopause height Operational forecastModified forecast Wind speed at 10m Observations

12. Concluding remarks / questions Boundary-layer balloons potentially useful for ETs Choice of the period (Fall, winter ?). Aircrafts with a lesser range  more adapted for downstream impact over Europe (sting jets ?) funding issues: Balloons (CNES), aircrafts (ANR?, FP7-8) ?