1. FCM WIZARD IN ACTION SCENARIO: ECO INDUSTRIAL PARK MODELING Main developers: Gonzalo NÁPOLES and Isel GRAU Supervisors: Elpiniki PAPAGEORGIOU and Koen VANHOOF

2. Scenario description This scenario deals with a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) for modeling an eco-industrial park and analyzing its simulation results. Within an eco-industrial park, one facility's waste is used as another's input, thereby reducing raw materials required and waste generated. While this is beneficial from a waste reduction approach, there are other factors such as colocation of secondary and tertiary services, increased population and vehicular traffic that follows as more industries colocate within a geographical area, which need to be considered. The proposed FCM comprises 18 concepts, experts were used to determine key concepts of the model as well as their interconnections among detected concepts. SUMITA FONS, GOPAL ACHARI AND TIMOTHY ROSS, A FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPPING ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF AN ECO-INDUSTRIAL PARK, JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT & FUZZY SYSTEMS, 15 (2004) 75–88.

3. ConceptDescriptionConceptDescription C1 Pollution C11 Owned housing C2 Waste disposal C12 Roads C3 Unutilized byproducts/wastes C13 Population C4 Demand C14 Available land C5 Byproducts/wastes provided by existing facilities C15 Rental cost C6 Secondary facilities C16 Schools & recreational facilities C7 Availability C17 Service facilities C8 Vehicles C18 Byproducts/wastes provided by co-locating facilities C9 Employment C10 Property cost SUMITA FONS, GOPAL ACHARI AND TIMOTHY ROSS, A FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPPING ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF AN ECO-INDUSTRIAL PARK, JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT & FUZZY SYSTEMS, 15 (2004) 75–88.

4. Construction of the causal weights The linguistic variables chosen and their assignments to the causal relationships are largely based on the expert experience and understanding of the impacts. The linguistic values “somewhat” and “significantly” have been assigned to the causal relationships to better define these relationships. Hence, the linguistic effect values for this case study are: none (0), negative somewhat (-0.5), negative significantly (−1), positive somewhat (+0.5), and positive significantly (+1). SUMITA FONS, GOPAL ACHARI AND TIMOTHY ROSS, A FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPPING ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF AN ECO-INDUSTRIAL PARK, JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT & FUZZY SYSTEMS, 15 (2004) 75–88.

5. Create a new map by using the menu File |New Map. The canvas is immediately cleaned and ready to be used in a new map. Designing the FCM model SUMITA FONS, GOPAL ACHARI AND TIMOTHY ROSS, A FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPPING ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF AN ECO-INDUSTRIAL PARK, JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT & FUZZY SYSTEMS, 15 (2004) 75–88.

6. Designing the FCM model Add concepts and causal links between them by drag and dropping from the source concept to the target one. Concepts denote variables of the problem described before. During the modeling phase the designer write the value of each causal weight. SUMITA FONS, GOPAL ACHARI AND TIMOTHY ROSS, A FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPPING ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF AN ECO-INDUSTRIAL PARK, JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT & FUZZY SYSTEMS, 15 (2004) 75–88.

7. Set initial values for concepts and trigger the inference Run | Run Inference Process. Next a plotter will be showed illustrating the inference process in detail. FCM Inference SUMITA FONS, GOPAL ACHARI AND TIMOTHY ROSS, A FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPPING ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF AN ECO-INDUSTRIAL PARK, JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT & FUZZY SYSTEMS, 15 (2004) 75–88.

8. In this case study, the FCM allows to analyze the impacts of developing an eco-industrial park. These are some conclusions from the simulation process which can be drawn with the help of FCM WIZARD: - Byproducts/wastes provided by existing facilities to be used as inputs to other facilities (C5) decreases air pollution (C1) and waste disposal (C2), but results in an increased number of secondary facilities co- locating in the area (an existing facility is a primary facility; a secondary facility is one that is established due to some sort of relationship with a primary facility) (C6). – The co-location of schools & recreation facilities (C16) increases unutilized byproducts/wastes (C3), byproducts/wastes provided by these co-locating facilities (C18), air pollution (C1) and employment (C9). The co-location of these facilities (C16) decreases the amount of available land (C14). See reference above for more information and results on the case study. Interpretation of the modeled system SUMITA FONS, GOPAL ACHARI AND TIMOTHY ROSS, A FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPPING ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF AN ECO-INDUSTRIAL PARK, JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT & FUZZY SYSTEMS, 15 (2004) 75–88.

9. FCM WIZARD IN ACTION SCENARIO: ECO INDUSTRIAL PARK MODELING Main developers: Gonzalo NÁPOLES and Isel GRAU Supervisors: Elpiniki PAPAGEORGIOU and Koen VANHOOF