1. HUMAN POPULATION Growth, Demography, Carrying Capacity

2. Scientists Disagree on Earth’s Carrying Capacity Figure 7.1

3. Scientists Disagree on Earth’s Carrying Capacity

4. Population Growth Natural Rate (NR) = birth rate (br) – death rate (dr) PopulationChange = (br/1000 + Immigration) – (dr/1000 + emigration) Natural rate of population change = br-dr/1000 x 100 OR br-dr/10 Crude birth rate = number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a given year. Crude death rate – number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population in a given year.

5. Human Population Growth Demography: the study of human populations and population trends.

7. Average crude birth rateAverage crude death rate World All developed countries All developing countries Developing countries (w/o China) 21 9 11 10 24 8 27 9 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

8. Africa Latin America Asia Oceania United States North America Europe 38 14 22 6 20 7 18 7 14 8 8 10 12 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

9. Population Growth Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – estimate of the average number of children a female will have during reproductive years (15-45). Global TFR in 2012 = 2.36 children per woman. Developing Countries TFR = 1.6, some African countries have a TFR of 6! Developed Nations are steady with a TFR of 1.6 Not until Developing Nations reach a TFR of 2.1 will world populations stabilize! GOAL = Replacement Level Fertility (RLF)

10. Changes in Population Size The rule of 70 may be used to approximately calculate the doubling time (DT) in years. DT ≈ 70 ÷ percent annual growth rate

11. Changes in Population Size Using the rule of 70, a population growing 2% per year will double approximately every 35 years. 70 ÷ 2 ≈ 35 years

12. Global Total Fertility Rates

13. World Developed countries Developing countries Africa Latin America Asia Oceania North America Europe 5 children per woman 2.8 2.5 1.6 6.5 3.1 6.6 5.1 5.9 2.6 5.9 2.6 3.8 2.1 3.5 2.0 2.6 1.4 1950 2004 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

14. Why Are TFR’s So High In Africa? No government supported family planning. Low literacy rate among woman. Few economic roles for woman. Woman’s rights…are there any? Poor health care for mothers/mothers-to-be. AIDS rampant. Need many children for labor. High infant mortality due to poor quality of life. Abortions, legal or safe?

15. Growing Cities

16. How Have Fertility Rates Changed in the USA? Population in 1900 – 76 million Population in 2004 = 294 million 1957 (peak baby boom) – TFR = 3.7 Since 1972 – USA at or below replacement level fertility (RLF) USA population is growing faster than any other developed nation, why?

17. 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1920193019401950196019701980199020002010 Year Births per woman Baby boom (1946-64) Replacement level Baby Boom Years

18. Population Increase in the USA Br>dr because standard of living is high. Baby-boomers now finally approaching post- reproductive age! Increase in unwed mothers (teenagers mostly, many in inner-city areas). Inadequate family planning. Ethnic group increases from immigration from developing nations who believe in the large family unit. Immigration (legal and illegal) = 71% of the population increase in the USA!

19. MaleFemale Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada MaleFemale Ages 0-14Ages 15-44Ages 45-85+ © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Pre-reproductiveReproductivePost-reproductive

20. Factors That Affect Birth/Fertility Rates Average level of education and affluence; Importance of children in the labor force; Cost of raising and educating children; Education and employment opportunities for woman; Infant mortality rates related to access to health care and medicine; Availability of legal abortions. Access to contraceptives and family planning education.

21. Factors That Lower Death Rates Increased distribution and supply of food resources; Higher living standards; Better nutrition (food/vitamins); Improvements in medical and public health technology; Improvements in sanitation and personal hygiene; Safer water supplies. NOTE: Infant mortality rate (IMR) is a good indicator of quality of life because it reflects the general level of nutrition and health care for a geographic region.

22. Global Infant Mortality Rates

23. Why Are TFR’s Higher In Developing Countries? Infant mortality rate is high; Need a few children to help farm, earn an income, take care of parents as they age; Ignorance regarding sexual education (also accounts for high incidence of AIDS especially in African Nations); No access to contraceptives or other birth control; Socially acceptable to have many children and multiple sexual partners at an early age(12-15). NOTE: Average age for marriage in a developing nation is 15! Average age for marriage in a developed country is 25!

24. Age Structure Diagrams Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Ages 0-14Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+

25. Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden MaleFemaleMaleFemale Ages 0-14Ages 15-44Ages 45-85+ © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

26. Population (2004) Population projected (2025) Infant mortality rate Life expectancy Fertility rate (TFR) %Population under age 15 % Population over age 65 Per capita GNI PPP 294 million 179 million 137 million 349 million 211 million 206 million 6.7 33 100 77 years 71 years 52 years 2.0 2.2 5.7 21% 30% 44% 12% 6% 3% $36,110 $7,450 $800 United States (highly developed) Brazil (moderately developed) Nigeria (less developed) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning POPULATION MOMENTUM Is greatest in developing nations because the pre- reproductive and reproductive population make up the largest portion of the total population = POPULATION GROWTH Population Momentum is dictated by quality of life indicators and Per capita income.

27. Percentage of world population Population Population (2025) (estimated) Illiteracy (%of adults) Population under age 15(%) Population growth rate (%) Total fertility rate Infant mortality rate Life expectancy GDP PPP per capita 17% 20% 1.1 billion 1.3 billion 1.4 billion 47% 17% 36% 22% 1.7% 0.6% 3.1 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) 1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) 64 32 62 years 71 years $2,650 $4,520 India China

29. Thailand 1971 – Thailand adopted a National Policy to reduce its population growth. The population was growing at a rate of 3.2%/year. TFR was 6.4 1986 – population decreased to 1.6% 1988 – population decreased to 1.1% 2000 – population decreased to 1% (TFR = 1.9)

30. Population Growth Rate If Thailand’s population growth rate is was 1% in 2000, when will it’s population double? Use the “Rule of 70” 70/growth rate = doubling time 70/1.0 = 70 years Therefore, Thailand’s population is expected to double in the year 2070.

31. Thailand Village

32. How Did Thailand Accomplish Such a Dramatic Decrease in Population Growth Rate? 1. Government –supported family planning program Mechai Viravidaiya created the Population and Community Development Association in 1974. It’s goal was to make family planning a national goal. PCDA Workers: a.Handed out condoms at festivals, movie theaters, traffic jams. b.Wrote humorous songs about condom use and why you shouldn’t have more than 2 children (Replacement Fertility) c.Traffic police handed out condoms on New Year’s Eve, now known as “Cops & Rubbers Day!” d.Carts to dispense birth control pills and spermicidal foams at bus stations and public events. e.Open vasectomy clinics (sterilization is the #1 form of birth control in Thailand) f.On the King’s Birthday, PCDA offers free vasectomies!

33. Thailand’s Decrease in Population Rate 2. High literacy rate among woman (90%) 3. Economic roles for woman 4. Advances in woman’s rights 5. Better health care for mothers and children 6. Openness of Thailander’s to new ideas 7. Support of family planning by religious leaders (95% Budhist) 8. Government financial support – economic incentives – family planners can apply for low interest loans to install toilets, drinking water systems, and farmers can install irrigation systems.

34. Problems Still Facing Thailander’s Pollution (increase in resource use per capita) Bangkok is one of the most polluted and congested cities in the world. High levels of traffic congestions (NOx = photochemical smog & acid deposition), CO 2 & H 2 O (greenhouse gases) Increased environmental degradation. Public Health (respiratory problems on the rise, AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases are rampant (prostitution is legal).

35. King: PHUMIPHON Adunyadet

36. Japan 1949-1956 (Post - WWII) – cut birth rate, TFR & population growth rates by 50%! TFR in 1949 was 4.5, in 1998 was 1.8 and it is on the decline still. How? Family Planning Services and Stressed Resources (Japan has no natural resources, they import all necessary raw materials and process it in Japan). Zero immigration rate = “pure population of Japanese” Population = 99% Japanese! Economic burden of caring for elderly. Declining workforce = lead the world in automated technology. Japan has reached Zero Population Increase…now the world watches to see how they handle these issues in the future.

37. 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 19501970199020102030205020702090211021302150 Year Age Distribution (%) Under age 15 Age 60 or overAge 80 or over

38. Access to Family Planning Education and Contraception Family Planning – Rhythm Method

39. Extremely Effective Highly Effective Total abstinence Sterilization Vaginal ring IUD with slow-release hormones IUD plus spermicide Vaginal pouch (“female condom”) IUD Condom (good brand) plus spermicide Oral contraceptive 100% 99.6% 98-99% 98% 97% 95% 93% CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS

40. Effective Cervical cap Condom (good brand) Diaphragm plus spermicide Rhythm method (Billings, Sympto-Thermal) Vaginal sponge impreg- nated with spermicide Spermicide (foam) 89% 86% 84% 83% 82% LESS EFFECTIVE CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS

41. Moderately Effective Unreliable Spermicide (creams, jellies, suppositories) Rhythm method (daily temperature readings) Withdrawal Condom (cheap brand) Douche Chance (no method) 75% 74% 70% 40% 10%

42. Contraception in the USA 60 million US woman are in the reproductive age range(15-44). 9/10 are practicing contraception. There are 3 million unintended pregnancies each year resulting from incorrect or inconsistent use of contraceptives. Most unintended pregnancies occur in teens! Is abortion being used in the USA as a form of contraception by teens?

43. How Does Population Relate to the Economics of a Country? Demographic Transition – A hypothesis of population change that states as countries become industrialized, first their death rates decrease followed by declines in birth rates. There are four stages: Pre-industrial, Transitional, Industrial, Post-industrial.

44. Pre-Industrial Stage (Stage 1) Harsh living conditions lead to a high birth rate (to compensate for high infant mortality rate) and a high death rate. African Nations

45. Transitional Stage (Stage 2) Industrialization begins which leads to an increase in food production and better access to health care and nutrition. India, China, South & Central America, Middle East, Thailand

46. Industrial Stage (Stage 3) Industrialization is widespread and birth rate begins to drop. Eventually birth rate will approach death rate. There is better access to birth control and family planning, decreased infant mortality, increase in jobs, and increased opportunities for woman. Most Developed Countries

47. Post-Industrial Stage (Stage 4) Birth rate decreases even further and equals death rate = ZERO POPULATION GROWTH (ZPG). THEN… birth rate drops below death rate and population begins to decline slowly. *** Shift from unsustainable to sustainable forms of economics!!! 37 Western European Countries and Japan have reached this stage (12% world population).

49. Conclusion Over the next several decades, Developing countries now in the Transitional Stage can make the jump to the Industrialized Stage. As they make this jump, their quality of life improves…so does their per capita resource consumption. What happens next? Keep a close watch on China! Demographic Trap – A poor country with a population growth of 2.5%/year needs an economic growth rate of 5% per year to make the transition. (Unlikely).

50. Rapid Population Growth Leads to… Rapid and wasteful use of resources with too little emphasis on pollution prevention and waste reduction. Degradation to Earth’s life-support systems. Poverty which can drive poor people to use potentially renewable resources unsustainably for short-term survival. Failure of economic and political systems to encourage sustainable economic development. Our urge to dominate and manage nature for our use with far too little knowledge about how nature works. Major Connection: Population x Affluence x Technology = Environmental Degradation P x A x T = E D

53. How Do We Slow Population Growth? Promote Family Planning Education Reduce Poverty Empower Woman Improve health care for infants, children, and pregnant woman. Increase access to education especially for girls. Increase the involvement of men in child rearing responsibilities. Reduce and eliminate unsustainable patterns of economic production and consumption. Promote free trade, private investment, and assitance to countries that need help.