1. Real-time adaptive observation guidance and observation system experiments for Typhoons observed in T-PARC Byoung-Joo Jung 1, Hyun Mee Kim 1, Yeon-Hee Kim 2, Eun Hi Jun 2 1 Dep. of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea 2 Forecast Research Lab., National Institute of Meteorological research/KMA, Seoul, Korea 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium 14-18 September 2009 Monterey, California, US

2. OUTLINE 1. T-PARC activity 2. SV guidance for TC JANGMI 3. OSEs 4. Summary

3. 1. T-PARC ACTIVITY Provision of real-time adaptive observation guidance to ECMWF T-PARC DTS and JMA website Implementation of observation system experiments 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US

4. Typhoons occurred in T-PARC (2008. 8. 1 ~ 2008. 10.4) NumberNameBirth (UTC)Death (UTC) 1200801NEOGURI2008-04-15 06:002008-04-19 18:00 2200802RAMMASUN2008-05-07 18:002008-05-13 06:00 3200803MATMO2008-05-15 12:002008-05-17 00:00 4200804HALONG2008-05-16 06:002008-05-20 12:00 5200805NAKRI2008-05-27 06:002008-06-03 06:00 6200806FENGSHEN2008-06-19 00:002008-06-25 18:00 7200807KALMAEGI2008-07-15 06:002008-07-20 18:00 8200808FUNG-WONG2008-07-25 06:002008-07-29 12:00 9200809KAMMURI2008-08-05 00:002008-08-07 18:00 10200810PHANFONE2008-08-10 06:002008-08-11 06:00 11200811VONGFONG2008-08-15 06:002008-08-17 06:00 12200812NURI2008-08-18 00:002008-08-23 00:00 13200813SINLAKU2008-09-08 18:002008-09-21 00:00 14200814HAGUPIT2008-09-19 12:002008-09-25 00:00 15200815JANGMI2008-09-24 12:002008-10-01 00:00 16200816MEKKHALA2008-09-29 00:002008-09-30 12:00 17200817HIGOS2008-09-30 00:002008-10-04 00:00 18200818BAVI2008-10-19 06:002008-10-20 12:00

5. Model: MM5 Adjoint Modeling System with Lancoz Algorithm Domain: 50 x 50 x 14 (120 km) Norm: Dry-TE Two fixed target region : Taiwan, Japan Moist Basic-state with simple moist linear physics 48h optimization time with 48h lead time NCEP GFS data is used for initial and boundary conditions Configuration for real-time Sensitivity Guidance 1. T-PARC ACTIVITY 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US

6. 1. T-PARC ACTIVITY 2008.04.21 UTCKorea 00z 06z 12z 18z 09 LST 15 LST 21 LST 03 LST 00z12z00z12z00z06z18z06z18z Data download SV calculation Decision Flight !!! TiTi TaTa TvTv 48 h 0h16.5h6h17.5h 6.5h Pre-processPost-process 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US Flowchart of Real-time SV sensitivity strategy Upload product to JMA & ECMWF DTS

7. 2. SV guidance for TC JANGMI 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US DOTSTAR Obs. 29 30 1 26 25 2 27 28

8. 2. SV guidance for TC JANGMI 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US UYonsei MM5SVNRL SVJMA SV ECMWF SVUMiami-NCEP ETKFUKMO ETKF 0000 UTC 27 September 2008 ※ Figures are from ECMWF DTS

9. 2. SV guidance for TC JANGMI 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US UYonsei MM5SVNRL SVJMA SV ECMWF SVUMiami-NCEP ETKFUKMO ETKF 0000 UTC 28 September 2008 ※ Figures are from ECMWF DTS

10. Model systemWRF version 2.2 and WRF-VAR version 2.2 beta (Barker et al. 2004) CasesTropical Cyclone JANGMI (200815) Domain200 x 200 x 31 (30 km) in East Asia region  Modeling Systems  Physics configuration  Data used MicrophysicsWRF Single Moment (WSM) 6-class RadiationDudhia (for shortwave) / RRTM ( for longwave) CumulusNew Kain-Fritsch Land-surfaceNoah LSM Planetary boundary layerYonSei University Used observations ~ SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, TEMP, PILOT, AMDAR, AIREP, SATEM, QSCAT, PROFL Targeted observation ~ dropsonde observations from DOTSTAR ( Wu ) NCEP FNL ~ for lateral boundary condition and initial condition in the earliest WRF forecast 3. OSEs 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US

11. 29 30 1 26 27 28 3. OSEs 3DVAR 06 UTC 26 Sep 2008 12 UTC 26 00 UTC 27 00 UTC 28 3DVAR 12 UTC 27 3 day forecast  Experimental design  3 set of OSEs

12. 3. OSEs 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US ALL LANDSEA To identify the relative importance of LAND/SEA observations. ①

13. 3. OSEs 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US ALL ALL-DROP ALL-QSCAT Among the main observations over the sea area, which OBS TYPE is the most important ??? ② ALL-SATEM

14. 3. OSEs 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US ALL LANDLAND+SV Can sensitive regions suggested by SV guidance improve track forecast ??? ③

15. 3. OSEs : OBS distributions 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US 00 UTC 27 Sep06 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep18 UTC 27 Sep00 UTC 28 Sep Targeted dropsonde SATEM QSCAT the others

16. 3. OSEs : OBS distributions and Sensitivity guidance 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US 00 UTC 27 Sep06 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep18 UTC 27 Sep00 UTC 28 Sep SV criteria 1. Interpolate SV to 0.5 degree grid 2. Top 10% of grids are selected. ( a tenth of grids)

17. ALL, LAND, SEA 3. OSEs : ① ALL, LAND, SEA 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US ALL LAND SEA 00 UTC 27 Sep12 UTC 27 Sep00 UTC 28 Sep 3DVAR 06 UTC 26 Sep 2008 12 UTC 26 00 UTC 27 00 UTC 28 3DVAR 12 UTC 27 3 day forecast

18. ALL, LAND, SEA 3. OSEs : ① ALL, LAND, SEA 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US 00 UTC 27 Sep12 UTC 27 Sep00 UTC 28 Sep

19. ALL, ALL-DROP, ALL-QSCAT, ALL-SATEM 3. OSEs : ② ALL, ALL-DROP, ALL-QSCAT, ALL-SATEM 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US ALL ALL-DROP ALL-QSCAT ALL-SATEM 00 UTC 27 Sep12 UTC 27 Sep00 UTC 28 Sep

20. ALL, ALL-DROP, ALL-QSCAT, ALL-SATEM 3. OSEs : ② ALL, ALL-DROP, ALL-QSCAT, ALL-SATEM 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US 00 UTC 27 Sep12 UTC 27 Sep00 UTC 28 Sep

21. ALL, LAND, SEA, LAND+SV 3. OSEs : ③ ALL, LAND, SEA, LAND+SV 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US ALL LAND SEA LAND+SV 00 UTC 27 Sep12 UTC 27 Sep00 UTC 28 Sep

22. ALL, LAND, SEA, LAND+SV 3. OSEs : ③ ALL, LAND, SEA, LAND+SV 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US 00 UTC 27 Sep12 UTC 27 Sep00 UTC 28 Sep

23. 4. Summary 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US 1. We have provided the real-time SV sensitivity guidance to ECMWF DTS and JMA website during T-PARC period. 2. In the OSEs with conventional and targeted dropsonde observations, observations over the SEA area is more important than those over the LAND area in short-range track forecast of TC JANGMI (200815). 3. Among the observations over the SEA area, DROP is the most important in track forecast. 4. The SV sensitivity guidance is helpful for 1-day forecast, but the impact is reduced for 2-3 day forecast. 5. More experiments for other T-PARC typhoons using other observations and data assimilation scheme are planned.