1. Human Development and Climate Change Basic needs emissions for China as a developing country Ying Chen CASS/RCSD South Africa National climate change conference Oct.17-20

2. Contents  Introduction & review  Stocks vs. flow: methodology of quantification  Preliminary results for buildings sectors  Potentials for low carbon economy  Commitment based on basic needs emissions  Conclusions

3. Introduction and review The concept of human development  Human development ≠GDP per capita  UNDP-HDI Human development and emissions  Industrialization The nature of emissions  Basic needs emissions  Luxurious emissions

4. Industrialization as a measure of development  Industrialization process  urbanization  infrastructure ： physical infrastructure and institutional infrastructure  Industrial process ： labor intensive (energy intensity low)== 》 capital intensive (energy intensity high) == 》 knowledge intensive (energy intensity low)  Industrial status  De-industrializing countries (decoupling energy)  Industrialized (stable and high level of energy consumption)  newly industrialized (slow growth of energy consumption)  rapidly industrializing (rapidly increasing consumption of energy)

5. 2. Methodology for Quantification Classification of basic needs Food, clothes, shelter, transport, others Individual vs. collective Stock vs. flow Direct vs. indirect energy/emissions implication

6. Stocks vs. Flows Stocks: all the build-up infrastructure, buildings and durables stock carbons  physical infrastructure  buildings (public & private)  durable consumption goods (cars, electric appliances) Flows: daily/regular need for carbon  depreciation  maintenance  household/service

7. Description and Selection of indicators clothes ： warm, comfortable, decent  Fiber requirement ； food ： nutrition, health  Calories intake ； shelter ： space, quality  M2/c ； room temperature,water supply and drainage, etc. transport ： convenient, comfortable  Cars/c? ； Other materials ：  Electric appliances ； Other services  Safety, security, health ； Urban infrastructure  Water, electricity, road, water water treatment, municipal waste ； Regional infrastructure  Road, railway, airport, etc  Energy, communication ； Rural infrastructure  Water, electricity, road, etc. ； Public services  Government, education, science & technology, culture, health care, commerce, etc. Adaptation infrastructure  Dykes, dams ； Basic needs: individualBasic needs: collective

9. 3. Basic needs: the buildings sector key assumptions and parameters for calculation Population  current number is used: 1.3 billion for China (2003)  Urban-rural structure: 80% urban, 20% rural Stock: Per capita area of buildings  Shelter (private house): 25m 2 /c  Public buildings: 15m 2 /c Flows  Cooling degree days (CDDs): 16ºC  Heating degree days (HDDs): 26ºC  Electric appliances (incl. Cooking):  Depreciation of stock: buildings-1/50; cars-1/15; electric appl: 1/10 Assumptions  No luxurious/wasteful consumption  Current technologies  Basic needs satisfied

10. Buildings: stock Areas of buildings: Existing stock ： private + collective = 154.94 + 91.65 = 246.59 (*10 8 )m 2 Shortage of stock ： private + collective = 196.11 + 103.35 = 299.46 (*10 8 )m 2 Total ： private + collective = 351.05 + 195.00 = 546.05 (*10 8 )m 2 Steel: Required for new stock: 299.46 (*10 8 )m 2 * 67.46kg/m2 = 20.201 (*10 8 )t 。 in existing stock ： 246.59 (*10 8 )m 2 * 67.46kg/m2 = 16.635 (*10 8 )t 。 Total: 20.201 + 16.635 = 36.836 (*10 8 )t 。

11. Buildings: flow – heating, cooling, appliances

12. Buildings: flows (100 million tce) Private house Collective 100milliion tce. ％亿吨标煤％ Heating & cooling 6.154 Urban heating &cooling 2.951 lighting0.65.3 Urban lighting and eqq. 2.238 Electric appliance 3.027 Rural heating & cooling 0.58 cooking1.412 Rural lighting and eqq. 0.11.8 Water supply0.21.7 Sub-total11.3100Sub-total5.7100 total 17.0

13. 4. Potentials for Low Carbon Economy: what should and can we do now? Non climate but climate friendly policies: can be effective and should be encouraged  Poverty alleviation: the absolute poor disregard energy efficiency and waste emissions due to lack of capacity: e.g. cooking  Population control: basic needs are for people. If the number of people are brought under control, increase in demand for emissions should also be controllable  Energy efficiency: Shanghai outdoor lighting: save 75% electricity using green lighting  Energy security: substitute of fossil energy; hydro power, nuclear, other renewables  Environmental pollution control: replacement of dirty coal by natural gas in cities in China

14. Potentials of Buildings sectors A new building in China A New building in China A old building in UK

17. 5. Commitment of Emissions Reductions: what should and can we do now? Obligatory  satisfaction of human basic needs and  restrictions of excessive / wasteful emissions. Basic commitment Voluntary  technological progress and  institutional innovation Further commitment: Conditional on  transfer of technologies or financial assistance by the developed country  not compromise human development goals nor encourage luxurious / wasteful emissions  no credits of emissions reductions will be counted if no progress

18. Conclusions Human development has clear emissions implications. Basic needs emissions is a useful concept which can be quantified under some assumption with parameters. Basic needs emissions of China is huge while great potentials do exist for low carbon economy. Understanding on basic needs emissions is important not only for domestic policy makers but also helpful for designing a more fair and effective international climate regime.