1. OPERATIONAL 2-H THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE FCSTS TO 24 HRS ON 20-KM GRID JESS CHARBA FRED SAMPLATSKY METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY OST / NWS / NOAA Details = http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154173.pdf

2. OUTLINE TSTM FCST PRODUCTS STATISTICAL MODEL CASE STUDIES FCST PERFORMANCE SCORES OPERATIONAL ASPECTS COMMENTS

3. TSTM FCST PRODUCTS 2- H PROB. AND CAT. FCSTS TO 25 HRS HOURLY ISSUANCES 20-KM GRID (NDFD GRID COMPATIBLE) CONUS COVERAGE TAILORED FOR AVIATION APPL.

4. STATISTICAL MODEL REGIONALIZED REGRESSION EQUATIONS ON 20-KM GRID MULTIPLE PREDICTOR INPUTS REGIONS

5. PREDICTOR INPUTS CURRENT CTG LIGHTNING STRIKES CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY CURRENT SURFACE OBS GFS MOS THUNDERSTORM PROB. GFS OUTPUT (SUPPLEMENTAL) THUNDERSTORM CLIMATOLOGY TOPOGRAPHY

6. DISCRETE AND OVERLAPPING REGIONS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

7. DISCRETE REGIONS OVERLAPPING REGIONS & BOUNDARY SMOOTHING 9-H TSTM PROB (%) FROM 0900 UTC 18 MAR 2008

8. OVERLAP REGIONS (OVLP) AND BOUND. SMOOTHING (BS) HAD NO AFFECT ON SKILL

9. FORECAST PERFORMANCE CASE STUDIES CASE STUDIES FROM 2008 FROM 2008

10. 6-H PROB (%) FROM 15Z3-H PROB (%) FROM 18Z NO. LTG STRK 19-21Z 8 JUNE 2008

11. 8-9 JUNE 2008 9-H PROB (%) FROM 15Z3-H PROB (%) FROM 21Z NO. LTG STRK 22-00Z

12. 9 JUNE 2008 6-H PROB (%) FROM 03Z3-H PROB (%) FROM 06Z NO. LTG STRK 07-09Z

13. 1 SEPTEMBER 2008 3-H PROB (%) FROM 12ZNO. LTG STRK 13-15Z RADAR EST. PRECIP (”) 12-18Z X HUR. GUSTAV

14. FORECAST PERFORMANCE SCORES FROM 0900 UTC CYC. SCORES FROM 0900 UTC CYC. FROM 2007-08 FROM 2007-08

15. PROBABILITY FORECASTS 0900 UTC 2007-08

16. CATEGORICAL FORECASTS 0900 UTC 2007-08

17. OPERATIONAL ASPECTS 24 CYCLES DAILY (YEAR ROUND) AVAILABLE TO ENTIRE WEATHER ENTERPRISE AND WORLD WIDE WEB PRODUCTS TAILORED BY INDIVIDUAL USERS

18. LAMP – CCFP HYBRID PRODUCT

19. COMMENTS LAMP THUNDERSTORM PROGRAM FULLY IMPLEMENTED PRODUCTS WELL RECEIVED, ESP. BY AVIATION WEATHER USERS

20. THE END