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Bay Area Apartment Association & TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc. 18 th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum “The Tampa Bay Rental Multi-Family Market : New Construction Returns” Tampa Westshore Marriott Hotel November 28 th, 2012 Sponsored by:
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. SINGLE FAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. MULTIFAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. OCCUPANCY TRENDS triadtriad
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. RENTAL PRICING TRENDS
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. 2012-13 TAMPA BAY AREA PIPELINE & NEW CONSTRUCTION REPORT UC/Leasing 2012 Planned – 2013 – 2014 Proposed – ON-HOLD MARKETDevUnitsDevUnitsDevUnits Hills 113,333193,3283640 Pinellas 3639102,6721326 Pasco 255851,9632540 Polk 00124000 Manatee 127251,2252772 Sarasota 00499800 Bay Area 174,8024410,42682,278
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. BAY AREA PIPELINE
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. HILLSBOROUGH PIPELINE
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. PINELLAS PIPELINE
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. PASCO PIPELINE
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. POLK PIPELINE
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND NEW DYNAMICS OF THE METHODOLOGIES OF PROJECTING RENTER DEMAND SUPPLY LACK OF SUPPLY – LIMITED NEW CONSTRUCTION - CONTINUED SHIFT FROM OWNERSHIP TO RENTAL HOUSING INCOMES ADJUSTED HH INCOMES - JOB LOSS (REDUCED HH INCOME) – SAVINGS LOSS - CREDIT LOSS CONSUMERS ADJUSTED HOUSING CHOICES – INCOME DRIVEN CHOICES – - BETTER LOCATIONS – LESS COMMUTING – URBAN/SUBURBAN THEORY METHODOLOGIES OF POP/HH GROWTH, & JOB GROWTH NOW OUT,. NEW DYNAMICS ARE KEEPING DEMAND STRONG – ONLY CURRENT VIABLE METHODOLOGY IS ACTUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE & SHIFTING CONSUMER CHOICES.
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Triad Research & Consulting, Inc. BAY AREA MULTIFAMILY TRENDS HILSUBURBAN LAND OPPS IN BRANDON, WESTCHASE & SOUTH COUNTY – ACTIVE NEW CONS WESTCHASE IN BRANDON & WESTSHORE & TAMPA PALMS & DOWNTOWN – COMPLETE, MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW PIN CONS IN GATEWAY & URBAN ST PETE – RESTABILIZING, MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW - LIMITED NEW SITES FOR CONS POTENTIAL PAS ONLY ACTIVE NEW CONS SR 54 – NEW DEMAND EXPANDING OUT OF DISTRESSED DRI’s – OPP IN MID COUNTY & WESLEY CHAPLE - MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW POL LAND AVAIL/AFFORD FOR FUTURE PIPELINE – NO NEW CONS - NO ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME DUE LOWER OCC & FINANCING DIFFICULTIES & NO RENT GROWTH MAN LAND AVAIL & DEMAND SUPPORTS FUTURE DEV – BENEFIT FROM SOUTHWARD HILLS EXPANSION & PINELLAS BUILDOUT IN THE FUTURE – CONS ACTIVITY IN LWR & I-75 AT THIS TIME – MARKET RECOVERY STRONG SAR NEW CONST FINALLY RETURNING DWNTWN-NORTH PORT- UNIV PKWY – MARKET NOW IN RECOVERY – LAND EXPENSIVE – OCC & RENT GROWTH MODERATE GLOBAL TRENDS NEW CONST RETURNING BUT SLOWED BY FINANCING – DEMAND CONTINUING TO GROW DUE TO DISTRESS SF & ECONOMIC TIMES - RECOVERY TO 94%-95% HAPPENING NOW – REGION STRONGER THAN MOST OF FLORIDA - FINANCING THE CHALLENGE – PLAYERS W/$$ WILL PLAY – GOOD OPPORTUNITIES FOR 24-48 MONTHS
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THANK YOU Sponsored by: 18th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum Bay Area Apartment Association & TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.
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