1. Peak Car? Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH

2. Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012

3. Forecasting in 1997 Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP ?

4. Forecasting in 1997 + 33% until 2010 Economic growth -> higher incomes -> more cars -> more and longer trips ->more km Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP, PERSONTRANSPORTERNAS UTVECKLING TILL 2010 reported by SIKA 2001

5. Today’s data Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP, PERSONTRANSPORTERNAS UTVECKLING TILL 2010 reported by SIKA 2001, Trafikanalys körsträckor 1999-2012

6. Why is it happening? Lifestyles Investments and Policy Technology Demography Urbanization Economy

7. Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey

9. Souce: RVU/RES Sweden We keep having cars

10. …but we drive them somewhat less Source: Trafikanalys, based on bilprovningen source: Trafikanalys, Bilprovningen and population counts from SCB

11. Single man student no children age 20 city apartment in 2012 Who drives how much compared to him? +- Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, dailly personal travel survey, tobit regression coefficients for the car driver km, no interaction effects included effects significant at 95% +

12. Urbanization reduces national car km per person

13. Accept uncertainty, prioritize flexible options Prepare for change in tax intakes / financing Public transit gains importance If car use declines, design for car-free access If car use increases, manage demand Policy effect / potential to steer future is greater than assumed Policy implications

14. Peak Car? Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH

15. Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey, car licence survey question

16. Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey

18. source: Trafikanalys, / SIKA

19. source: SCB

21. Souce: RVU/RES Sweden