1. Emission and dispersion of Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in China S. Tao, Y.X. Zhang, C. Lang Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes Peking University SINCIERE Member Forum Beijing, 2007.10.27-29

2. 11 1.INTRODUCTION 2.EMISSION INVENTORY 3.DISPERSION MODELING IN GUANGDONG 1.INTRODUCTION 2.EMISSION INVENTORY 3.DISPERSION MODELING IN GUANGDONG

3. PAH EMISSION IN CHINA

4. PAH CONTAMINATION IN CHINA extensive contamination of various media including food Mai et al., 2002; Shi et al., 2005; Wu et al., 2005; Zhang et al., 2005; Zhu et al., 2005 particularly important in China both regionally and globally Regionally Based Assessment of Toxic Substances, UNEP Chemicals, 2003

5. BaPeq 1.8 lg(ng/m 3 ) -0.3 1.0 LOCAL EXPOSURE RISK China Ambient air, 2m height, Tianjin National Standard 10 ng BaPeq/m 3 Exceedence: 4% area, 41% population Tao et al., ES&T, 2006

6. LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT Primbs et al., ES&T, 2007

7. OBJECTIVE to develop an PAH emission inventory for China to model the dispersion of PAHs in Guangdong

8. 22 1.INTRODUCTION 2.EMISSION INVENTORY 3.DISPERSION MODELING IN GUANGDONG 1.INTRODUCTION 2.EMISSION INVENTORY 3.DISPERSION MODELING IN GUANGDONG

9. METHODOLOGY Emission factors from the literature Emissions of individual PAHs and PAH 16 NAPACYACEFLOPHEANTFLAPYRBaACHRBbFBkFBaPIcdPDahABghiP Fuel consumption at provincial level Firewood, straw, domestic coal, industrial coal, coking, vehicle gas, other gas, natural gas Uncertainty analysis – Monte Carlo simulation Modeling the fuel consumption Prediction of fuel consumption at km 2 resolution

10. EMISSION DENSITY / INTENSICY Emission intensity Emission density

11. MAJOR EMISSION SOURCES Al production, 0.9% Consumer products, 0.9% Others, 0.9% Traffic oil, 2.5% Large scale coke production, 1.1% Domestic coal, 6.8% Industrial coal, 1.5% Small scale coke 27.2% Firewood burning 21.2% Open fire Straw burning 2.4% Indoor straw burning 34.6%

12. 0.0E+00 7.0E+04 1.4E+05 01250025000 GDP23 Ind coal Taiwan 0.0E+00 1.5E+04 3.0E+04 0 14000 28000 GDP23 Ind oil Taiwan Hong Kong Guangdong ENERGY CONSUMPTION MODELING Domestic coal Based on population and temperature 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 01000020000 Heilongjiang Hebei Guizhou Observed Measured 0.0E+00 3.5E+04 7.0E+04 040008000 Agri. Population, 10 4 BIofuel, 10 4 ton y = 6.844x R 2 = 0.7867 Henan Sichuan 0.0E+00 6.0E+03 1.2E+04 15000300000 GDP23 Traffic oil Industrial coal Industrial oil Biofule Traffic oil

13. MODEL VALIDATION 1.E+00 1.E+05 1.E+001.E+05 1.E+00 1.E+02 1.E+04 1.E+001.E+021.E+04 1.E+00 1.E+05 1.E+001.E+05 Model validation

14. MODEL UNCERTAINTY Relative variation index (RVI=SR (semi-interquartile ranges) / median) Range from 13.9% indoor straw burning to 37.6% small-scale coke production Primarily from activity (straw) or emission factor (others)

15. EMISSION DENSITY km 2 resolution Annual aerosol optical depth, MODIS

16. TEMPERAL CHANGE

17. GLOBAL EMISSION preliminary Continent/countryEmissionPercentage Total World521668100.0% Total Asia28919755.4% Total South and South-east Asia15133529.0% India8978117.2% Total East Asia12579124.1% China11447721.9% Total Western and Central Asia466048.9% Total Africa9799018.8% Total Western and Central Africa466048.9% Total Eastern and Southern Africa302355.8% Total Northern Africa211524.1% Total North and Central America469789.0% Total North America419308.0% United States320896.2% Total Central America26300.5% Total Europe494589.5% Total South America313986.0% Total Oceania76641.5%

18. VALIDATION USA, 1990 UK, 1995 EU countries- BaP Incineration transportation Aviation ind. Coking Incineration Ind. coal Aluminum

19. GLOBAL EMISSION DENSITY preliminary

20. EMISSION vs. GDP and Income -3 0 3 6 25811 -1.5 0.5 2.5 2345 Emission density, log(Gg/y) Residual, log(Gg/y) GDP, log(USD)Income, log(USD/y) y = -0.82529 x + 2.80241 y = 0.85203 x - 3.60540 LgEmission = 1.016 lgGDP – 0.961 lgIncome – 4.582 r 2 = 0.843, n = 168,

21. SUMMARY Total emission of PAH 16 in China: 116,000 ton in 2003 10% carcinogenic compounds Major sources: indoor biomass burning, small-scale coke ovens Increased over time Global emission of PAH 16 : 522,000 ton in 2003

22. 33 1.INTRODUCTION 2.EMISSION INVENTORY 3.DISPERSION MODELING IN GUANGDONG 1.INTRODUCTION 2.EMISSION INVENTORY 3.DISPERSION MODELING IN GUANGDONG

23. METHODOLOGY Spatial resolved emission Potential Receptor Influence Function (PRIF) Forward trajectories (HYSPLIT) Partitioning, degradation, dry/wet deposition The probability of PAHs arriving at a receptor site, or cell, during a given emission duration and a known period of transport time

24. EMISSION OF PHE, FLA, PYR, BaP in 2001 210,000 km 2, over 80 million population 60 x 60 km 2 resolution China Guangdong

25. ANNUAL MEAN OUTFLOW OF PYRENE 2001 Annual mean PRIF (PYR) from Guangdong based on daily trajectory calculation Total PRIF: 5.37x10 -1, 2.56x10 -3 and 8.92x10 -5

26. SEASONAL VARIATION IN OUTFLOW Summer vs. winter The East Asian monsoons domination

27. SPECIAL WEATHER CONDITIONS Stagnation (May 7, 2001), typhoon (July 6, 2001), uplifting (Jan. 23, 2001) One day emission, 5 days transport

28. INTERANNUAL VARIATION PYRENE 0-5 day transport period, three sites representing source and receptor regions PRIFs peaked in Dec. in southeast Asia (P2) and in July in northern China (P3) Abnormally high (low) PRIF – cold (warm) episodes (Ocean Nino Index)

29. MODELING FOR CHINA, PRELIMINARY Forward trajectory, PRIF PRIF of PYR and BaP Resolution: 24 km x 24km x 12 min Euler atmospheric transport model Annual mean conc. at 1.5 m height, log(pg/m 3 coupled with a fugacity multi-media model 1.5, 3.9, 10, 100, 500, 1000, 2000, 3000, 7000 m

30. SUMMARY 48% remained in Guangdong under 200 m in 5 days PAHs traveled to south and southeast predominantly Strong seasonality Occasionally uplifted and traveled toward the Pacific

31. FINANCIAL SUPPORT NATIONAL SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATION OF CHINA ACKNOWLEDGEMENT