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twAAA twBB twAA Outlook: Taiwan’s Container Shipping Industry Daniel Hsiao Associate Director Corporate Ratings, Taiwan Ratings Corp. Sept. 8, 2005
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twAAA twBB twAA Characteristics of Container Shipping Industry Growing Industry Highly Cyclical Capital Intensive Fragmented Structure Low volatility than other shipping industry (Dry bulk carriers)
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twAAA twBB twAA Key East-West Container Market Indicators
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twAAA twBB twAA Containership Orderbook by Size and Scheduled Delivery Year Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. (March 2005). 7,1623,622223971,0011,289913Total 1231,16001612915251838,000+ 1,680921161172682302905,000-7,999 2,8191,12941013653892702,500-4,999 2,54041221877145170<2,500 TEUs Current global capacity (Jan. 2005) Total20092008200720062005 Unit: '000 TEUs
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twAAA twBB twAA Outlook for Taiwan’s Operators Supply: Substantially increase in 2006 and in 2007 –Ports and inland transportation Congestion problems in the west coast of US and in Europe Demand: Global economic and growth driver in China Outlook for Taiwan’s Operators: –Impact on intra-Asia routes is limited –Volatility in long-haul routes (trans-Pacific routes) are higher –Financial strengths are strengthened –Capital expenditure remains high
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twAAA twBB twAA Peer Comparison of Three Taiwan-based Shipping Companies
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twAAA twBB twAA Outlook: Telecom Industry in Taiwan
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twAAA twBB twAA Characteristics of Taiwan’s Telecom Market Fixed Lines: Monopoly (per se) Wireless: – Saturated Market – High Penetration Rate – Dominated by Three Operators – 3G Services and Mobile Number Portability
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twAAA twBB twAA 40122New start-ups 608898Chunghwa Telecom Co. Ltd. 2004 4292New start-ups 589198Chunghwa Telecom Co. Ltd. 2003 3981New start-ups 619299Chunghwa Telecom Co. Ltd. 2002 International direct dial (%) Domestic long distance (%) Local call services (%) Market Share Comparisons Between Chunghwa Telecom Co. Ltd. and New Fixed-Line Start-Ups
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twAAA twBB twAA Taiwan's Mobile Phone Market
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twAAA twBB twAA 3G: Friend or Foe? 2G was revolution, 3G is just evolution. –Non-voice revenue accounted for only 5% of revenue Demand Function of 3G = f (Quality, Content, Price) –Quality: Rooms to improve at the start-up phase –Content: 3G are joked as Girls/Games/Gambling –Price: 3G handset still expensive Attitude of Major Operators: –Launch the service at the last moment –Targeted 3G subscribers only 50,000 to 120,000
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twAAA twBB twAA MNP: Opportunity for New Start-ups Experiences from Other Markets in the Region –Hong Kong –Singapore Taiwan? –Transfer fee –Three dominated operators equally share the market –It is an opportunity for new start-ups, but at the expense of profit
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twAAA twBB twAA Trends on Taiwan’s Telecom Industry Fixed Lines Market: – Dominated by One Incumbent – Potential Threat from VoIP Wireless Market: – Low growth – Limited competition from new entrants Outlook: Stable
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twAAA twBB twAA 236.0212.0 Net cash Funds from operations/net debt (%) 21.039.022,654.0EBITDA interest coverage (x) 13.017.0 Net cashNet debt/capital (%) 48.047.055.0Operating margin (%) 55.265.5182.6Total revenue (NT$ bil.) 313435Mobile market share (%) 6.86.58.2Mobile subscribers (mil.) twAA/Stable twAAA/StableTaiwan Ratings Corp. rating Not ratedBBB+/Stable/--AA-/NegativeStandard & Poor's rating --As at Dec. 31, 2004-- Taiwan Mobile Co. Ltd. Far EasTone Telecommunications Co. Ltd. Chunghwa Telecom Co. Ltd. Major Telecommunications Operators in Taiwan
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