1. The Past and Future of the Sciences of Complexity The end is nigh! Past and Future 1

2. The Theory of Everything TOE a.k.a. Grand Unified Theory (GUT) What if we had one? Would it be the end of the study of complexity? Past and Future 2

3. Bubble view Past and Future 3 TOE condensed matter geophysicsbiophysics? …

4. Impact of a TOE The hope that physics could be complete with an increasingly detailed understanding of fundamental physical forces and constituents is unfounded. Past and Future 4

5. Newton’s task He was hammered by the chaos of language – words still vaguely defined…Newton believed he could marshal a complete science of motion if only he could find the appropriate lexicon… - James Gleick Past and Future 5

6. Newton’s task… Newton had to regularize the very words force, motion, and so on (math requires words), as well as to create the mathematical framework, the Calculus, necessary to express his laws. Past and Future 6

7. Newton’s task… Something similar will be necessary if complexity is to become a productive science. Past and Future 7

8. Bottom up versus top down A better route to understanding the dynamics of apparently self- organizing systems is to focus on the details of specific systems. This will reveal whether there are general laws… - Deborah Gordon Past and Future 8

9. Predecessors Cybernetics Norbert Wiener contentious field: most important…moments in my life vacuous in the extreme…inane Past and Future 9

10. Predecessors… General System Theory ‘systems’ in general themes preservation of identity amid change organized complexity goal-directed Past and Future 10

11. Predecessors… Not ultimately successful helped start some useful areas artificial intelligence neural networks systems biology (?) control theory … Past and Future 11

12. The future Two directions (per Mitchell) ideas and tools to apply in particular application areas domain knowledge meta-science of complexity unifying definitions and mathematics Past and Future 12

13. The fate of complexity A guess: it is either at a critical point in its history, hoping for its Newton, or it has already failed and we just don’t know it yet. Past and Future 13

14. Past and Future 14