1. Chapter 7 Public Opinion

2. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHO GOVERNS? WHO GOVERNS? 1.How does public opinion in America today vary by race, gender, and other differences? 2.What is political ideology, and how does it affect political behavior and influence public policy? TO WHAT ENDS? TO WHAT ENDS? 1.What role did the Framers of the Constitution think public opinion should play in American democracy? 2.When, if ever, should public policies mirror majority opinion?

3. Copyright © 2013 Cengage

4. Why Does Government Policy Often Appear At Odds With Public Opinion? Copyright © 2013 Cengage The Framers of the Constitution did not try to create a government that would do from day to day “what the people want.” The Framers of the Constitution did not try to create a government that would do from day to day “what the people want.” They created a government for the purpose of achieving certain substantive goals. They created a government for the purpose of achieving certain substantive goals.

5. Public Opinion and Democracy Copyright © 2013 Cengage The Framers of the Constitution created a government to achieve certain goals: The Framers of the Constitution created a government to achieve certain goals: “to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, ensure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessing of Liberty.” – Preamble to the Constitution – Preamble to the Constitution

6. Do We Really Know What The Public Thinks? Copyright © 2013 Cengage It is not easy to know what the public thinks. It is not easy to know what the public thinks. A few simple, clear-cut and widely discussed issues may allow for some degree of certainty. A few simple, clear-cut and widely discussed issues may allow for some degree of certainty. But, with many lesser-known issues that certainty may be missing. But, with many lesser-known issues that certainty may be missing.

7. What is public opinion? Public Opinion = the aggregation of views shared by a segment of society on issues of interest or concern. Public Opinion = the aggregation of views shared by a segment of society on issues of interest or concern. Give examples of public opinion that deal with: Give examples of public opinion that deal with: Foreign policy Local policy issues Environmental issues Social issues

8. Public policy Public policy = the choices the government makes and the actions it takes in response to a particular issue or problem Public policy = the choices the government makes and the actions it takes in response to a particular issue or problem Can be led or formed by actions of political leadersCan be led or formed by actions of political leaders Ex: how did public opinion change about involvement in Iraq from 2003-2006? Ex: how did public opinion change about involvement in Iraq from 2003-2006? Can lead/influence public policyCan lead/influence public policy Ex: community’s concerns about traffic in an area can lead to a new stop light Ex: community’s concerns about traffic in an area can lead to a new stop light Gay marriage Gay marriage

9. How do we express public opinion? What are some ways responsible citizens express their opinions? What are some ways responsible citizens express their opinions? Writing lettersWriting letters Marches/demonstrationsMarches/demonstrations Join/support groups that represent their views, like MADDJoin/support groups that represent their views, like MADD Voting!Voting!

10. What Is Public Opinion? Copyright © 2013 Cengage Poll – a survey of public opinion Poll – a survey of public opinion Random sample – a sample selected in such a way that members of the population being surveyed has an equal chance of being selected Random sample – a sample selected in such a way that members of the population being surveyed has an equal chance of being selected Sampling error –the difference between the results from two different samples of the same population Sampling error –the difference between the results from two different samples of the same population

11. What is Public Opinion? How Polling Works How Polling Works PollPoll Random sampleRandom sample Sampling errorSampling error Exit polls – poll based on interviews conducted after electionsExit polls – poll based on interviews conducted after elections Copyright © 2013 Cengage Students at Marist College in New York call people in the state with poll questions. AP Photo/Jim McKnight

12. Scientific Poll Randomized sample Representative sample Question wording (unbiased, unambiguous) Large sample size/low margin of error Copyright © 2013 Cengage

13. The polling process When is a poll accurate? When is a poll accurate? Sample – group of people who take partSample – group of people who take part 1,500 people is sufficient to reflect opinions of about 230 million 1,500 people is sufficient to reflect opinions of about 230 million Must be chosen at random Must be chosen at random How the questions are worded and order of them is important (unbiased)How the questions are worded and order of them is important (unbiased) Sampling error – margin of error should be stated for the poll (low) Sampling error – margin of error should be stated for the poll (low)

14. this chart says a lot about the discrepancies between exit polls and machine tabulations:

15. How Opinions Differ How Opinions Differ Opinion saliencyOpinion saliency Relevant or important to peoples lives Relevant or important to peoples lives Opinion stabilityOpinion stability Steady on some issues but not on others Steady on some issues but not on others Opinion-policyOpinion-policy congruence congruence when government is in sync with popular views on some issues, but not on others Copyright © 2013 Cengage What is Public Opinion? Republican Scott Brown wins the election to fill the Senate seat once held by Ted Kennedy. He must stand for reelection in 2012.

16. How does Public Opinion affect Congressional members Enhances how a Congressman votes: Polling Results the desire to get reelected/electoral ambition The perceived obligation/duty to represent their constituents Limits how a Congressman votes: Legislators’ voting records To avoid being perceived as indecisive by voters/supporters Party Leadership To avoid the risk of losing party support To gain party support Copyright © 2013 Cengage

17. How does the media impact public opinion? Mass media = means of communication that provide information to a large audience Mass media = means of communication that provide information to a large audience How are you subjected to the mass media every day? How are you subjected to the mass media every day? MagazinesMagazines TV newsTV news News on WebNews on Web Viral videosViral videos Social networkingSocial networking Impacts us in two major ways: Impacts us in two major ways: Monitors, shapes political agendaMonitors, shapes political agenda Covers electoral politicsCovers electoral politics

18. Political Socialization Political socialization – process by which background traits influence one’s political views Political socialization – process by which background traits influence one’s political views Genes and the Family Genes and the Family Religion Religion The Gender Gap The Gender Gap Education Education Copyright © 2013 Cengage Children grow up learning, but not always following, their parents’ political beliefs. Bob Daemmirch/The Image Works

19. The Family Typically tend to follow parents ideologies Typically tend to follow parents ideologies As the grow older tend to become more independentAs the grow older tend to become more independent If they don’t identify with parents – not the opposite party, but say the are “independent” If they don’t identify with parents – not the opposite party, but say the are “independent” Young voters have a weaker sense of partisanship than older citizens Young voters have a weaker sense of partisanship than older citizens Copyright © 2013 Cengage

20. Religion Religious traditions Religious traditions 1 in 10 people rank religious beliefs as the biggest influence 1 in 10 people rank religious beliefs as the biggest influence When it comes to topics like gay- marriage 40% deem religious beliefs the biggest influence When it comes to topics like gay- marriage 40% deem religious beliefs the biggest influence Copyright © 2013 Cengage

21. Gender gap Difference between political views of men and women Difference between political views of men and women Women more likely to vote DemocratWomen more likely to vote Democrat Differ on issues such as handguns, anti poverty programs, limit defense spendingDiffer on issues such as handguns, anti poverty programs, limit defense spending not on issues like abortionnot on issues like abortion Copyright © 2013 Cengage

22. Education Attending college has a big impact on political attitudes Attending college has a big impact on political attitudes Less students are reading the paper Less students are reading the paper Therefore: Therefore: Volunteering is more important then voting Volunteering is more important then voting Copyright © 2013 Cengage

23. Young Adults on Politics and Politicians Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: Institute of Politics, The 17th Biannual Youth Survey on Politics and Public Service, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Spring 2010.

24. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Opinions by Four Christian Groups on Four Issues Opinions by Four Christian Groups on Four Issues Source: Adapted from Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, American Views on Religion, Politics, & Public Policy, 2010, pp. 37, 41, and 46, and “Faith-Based Programs Still Popular, Less Visible,” November 16, 2009, p. 2.

25. Worship Service Attendance and the Probability of Voting Democratic (2000–2008) Worship Service Attendance and the Probability of Voting Democratic (2000–2008) Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, American Views on Religion, Politics & Public Policy, 2010, p. 85.

26. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Gen Dems: The Party’s Advantage Among Young Voters Widens, April 28, 2008.

27. Cleavages in Public Opinion Social Class Social Class Race and Ethnicity Race and Ethnicity Region Region Copyright © 2013 Cengage Marco Rubio, the Hispanic son of exiles from Cuba, is a conservative Republican elected from Florida to the United States Senate in 2010. Joe Raedle/Getty Images News/Getty Images

28. Cleavages Class Class Most Blue collar workers in America believe they are “middle class”Most Blue collar workers in America believe they are “middle class” Other countries like France and Britain would consider themselves “working class”Other countries like France and Britain would consider themselves “working class” Race Race Most African Americans are DemocraticMost African Americans are Democratic Region Region Southerners and Northerners disagree on many issuesSoutherners and Northerners disagree on many issues Copyright © 2013 Cengage

29. Political Ideology Political Ideology - A more or less consistent set of beliefs about what policies government ought to pursue. Political Ideology - A more or less consistent set of beliefs about what policies government ought to pursue. Mass Ideologies: A Typology Mass Ideologies: A Typology Liberal and Conservative Elites Liberal and Conservative Elites Copyright © 2013 Cengage

30. Source: Adapted from “Profiles of the Typology Groups: Beyond Red and Blue,” Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 2005.

31. Political Elites, Public Opinion, and Public Policy Political elites – persons with a disproportionate share of political power. Political elites – persons with a disproportionate share of political power. Elites raise and frame political issues. Elites raise and frame political issues. Elites state the norms by which issues should be settled. Elites state the norms by which issues should be settled. Copyright © 2013 Cengage

32. M E M O R A N D U M To: Bill Byron, U.S. Senator From: Dan Joyce, legislative assistant Subject: Vote on path to citizenship bill Your state has only a small illegal immigration problem, but voters have concerns both about maintaining law and order, and providing economic opportunities and a “path to citizenship” for people who have resided in this country for many years. As you contemplate both your vote on the bill and your possible presidential bid as a Republican, note that public opinion on the subject is divided by party, race, ethnicity and religion. For example, an August 2010 Pew poll asked about priorities in dealing with illegal immigration: 47% of Republicans, 34% of Independents, and 21% of Democrats cited “better border security;” 41% of Hispanics, versus 19% of White evangelicals cited “creating a path to citizenship” Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

33. Arguments for: 1. Your state contains a small but slowly growing proportion of first-generation Americans, who favor a “path to citizenship” for immigrants who have lived in this country for years, regardless of their legal status. 2. Illegal immigrants often take menial jobs that nobody else wants, and contribute to the U.S. economy by paying taxes and buying goods and services. 3. A “path to citizenship,” with fines and other penalties for being in the country illegally, is the most realistic option for individuals who have family and other long-term ties in the United States. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

34. Arguments against: 1. Your party leaders oppose comprehensive immigration reform, saying that enhanced border security must be a higher priority. 2. Illegal immigrants take jobs away from native-born Americans and cost more in public services, such as education and emergency health care, than they contribute to the economy. 3. People who entered the country illegally must not be rewarded for breaking the law, and enforcement can be effective with sufficient resources. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

35. Your decision: Vote for bill? Vote against bill? Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO?