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Amey Dargude Rahul Gohil Shruti Shah Vanditha Mysore Ravindranath Yujiang (Walter) Chen Source: http://airleasecorp.com/ Nov 17, 2015
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Agenda Current Holding Company and Business Overview Macroeconomic Overview Comparable Valuation Technical Analysis DCF Valuation Recommendation
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Our Current Holding Ticker: AL Exchange Listed: NYSE Bought: 400 shares at $22.32 Current Price: $32.71 Return: $4156 (46.55%) Percentage of portfolio = 3.008% Source: Yahoo Finance, https://www.business.illinois.edu/finance/rcmp/Research.aspx?Cat=Portfolio https://www.business.illinois.edu/finance/rcmp/Research.aspx?Cat=Portfolio
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Company Overview Founded on February 2010 Based out of Los Angeles, California No. of Offices – 2- LA & Dublin (Ireland) IPO – 19 th April, 2011 (Raised estimated $965.6 mm) Founder, Chairman & CEO - Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Founded ILFS Number of Employees – 65 (Full time) Source: http://airleasecorp.com/about/, Yahoo Finance, Wikipediahttp://airleasecorp.com/about/
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Business Model Source: 10-k 2014, Page 4, 5 Purchase new aircrafts Air Lease Sell Aircrafts to third parties Lease aircrafts to airlines Fleet Management Services
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Business Overview Source: 10-k 2014, and 10-Q Nov 2015 Current Fleet Size Owned = 235 Managed = 26 Customers – 77 airlines across 46 countries Suppliers – Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, ATR
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Business Overview Weighted average lease term – 7.3 years Average age of the fleet – 3.5 years Source: 10-k 2014, Page 4, 5
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Key Statistics about Air Lease Source: 10-Q 3 rd Quarter 2015 Announced purchase schedule of 387 aircrafts to be delivered until 2024 from Boeing, Airbus & ATR Signed lease agreements for 119 aircrafts Purchase price = $30.7 billion One of the largest customers of Boeing & Airbus Boeing 737 family – World’s best selling aircraft (83) Airbus A320 - Currently the world's best selling jet airliner & 2nd best in history (39)
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Management Philosophy Focus on emerging markets Experiencing increased demand for passenger airline travel Mature markets North America & Western Europe Replace aging aircraft with new, modern technology & more fuel efficient aircrafts Fewer financing alternatives in emerging markets Command relatively higher lease rates compared to those in mature markets Diversify leases & lessees by geography, lease term, aircraft age & type Strategy to own an aircraft during the first third of its expected 25 year useful life Source: 10-k 2014, page 4
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Air Lease Strategy Highly in demand, widely distributed, modern technology, fuel efficient Strategically target the replacement of aging aircraft with modern technology aircraft Supplement order pipeline with opportunistic purchases of aircraft in the secondary market For new aircraft deliveries, source many components separately Often times able to achieve lower pricing Allows airlines to avoid financial risk Fleet flexibility enables airlines to more effectively operate and compete in their respective markets Enter into a lease agreement 18 to 36 months in advance of the delivery of a new aircraft Sign a follow-on lease 6 to 12 months ahead of the scheduled expiry of the initial lease term Air Lease Aircraft Acquisition Strategy Aircraft Leasing Strategy Source: 10-k 2014 page 7, 8
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Industry & Macroeconomic Review Over the past 30 years, the aviation industry has grown at 5 percent annually Industry traffic grew at 6% in 2014 To carry this additional traffic, New aircrafts - 4 to 4.5% of the installed fleet, approx. 900 airplanes Replacement Requirement - 2 to 3 %, approx. 500 airplanes The two largest fleet domiciles, Europe and North America Source: Boeing (Traffic and market outlook)
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GDP is a strong indicator for the Current Market Outlook GDP to grow at 3.1 percent over the next 20 years Industry net profit doubled to US$20 billion in 2014 over 2013 Airlines continue to focus on reducing costs and boosting revenues Over the past decade, the airline industry has achieved 7% CAGR Fuel averages 25 percent of airline cost Oil prices are expected to remain below $70 per barrel until 2018 Source: Boeing (Traffic and market outlook, Business and Market Environment), Airbus Industry & Macroeconomic Review
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Risk Factors Risk of Default on lease Payment Unable to sell old aircrafts Increase in Interest Rate Undiversified type of aircraft models
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SWOT Analysis Strengths -Own youngest & fuel efficient fleet - Low cost Financing Options - Skilled management and small number of employees -Diverse customer base Weakness -Highly dependent on few suppliers -Fixed rental income vs floating interest rate Opportunities -Growing demand in the emerging market -Emergence of small player increasing demand for leased fleets Threat -Volatile interest environment leading to volatile cost of borrowing -Technology innovation obsoleting current fleets -Sensitive to economic volatility (mainly oil prices and exchange rate fluctuation) SWOT Analysis
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Buyer’s Bargaining Power (Low) -Large customer base and only few top companies lead 95% of the market Threat of new entrants (Low) -Huge capital investment -Requires expertise and customer relation -Stringent government regulations Supplier Bargaining Power (High) -Very few big suppliers in the industry Rivalry among existing competitors (Moderate) -Industry leader but competition from other leasing companies & brokers -Fragmented market and internationalized -Similar product and less differentiation Threat from substitutes (Low) -Only big airline companies can own aircrafts -Many small players in the industry, hence prefer leasing Porter’s Five Forces
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Air lease Competitors AVOLON HOLDINGS Based out of Dublin, Ireland, Avolon Holdings Limited acquires, manages, leases, and sells commercial jet aircraft to various airlines and lessees in the United States and internationally Operates a portfolio of 235 aircraft, including 126 owned, 11 managed, and 98 committed aircraft FLY LEASING Based out of Ireland, FLY Leasing engages in purchasing and leasing commercial aircraft under multi-year contracts to various airlines worldwide Has international presence, and its aircraft portfolio consisted of 127 commercial jet aircraft, including 116 narrow-body passenger aircraft and 11 wide-body passenger aircraft. AIR CASTLE Based out of Connecticut, Air Castle acquires, leases, and sells commercial jet aircraft to airlines worldwide Has international presence and it’s current aircraft portfolio comprised 148 aircraft that were leased to 54 lessees located in 34 countries Business Model Fleet Size International presence Source: 10K Report
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Valuation – Comparable Analysis
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Financials – Ratio Analysis 10-K Reports (2011 – 2014)
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Financials – Ratio Analysis 10-K Report (2011-2014)
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Financials – Ratio Analysis 10-K Reports (2011 – 2014)
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Technical Analysis Source: Yahoo Finance
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Assumptions (in ‘000)
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Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
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Recommendation Comparable Valuation $30.76 Current Price $32.71 DCF Valuation $32.89 SELL 200 shares at Market Price
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Thank You Q & A
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