1. How do we know whether criminals will re-offend?

2. A clinical assessment  Risk assessments:  Ask questions (e.g. For assessment of dangerousness)  Is there a clear threat?  Is there serious danger?  Is there a specific victim?  Is the danger imminent?  Who is threatened?  Using the case studies you have answer these questions – and give your recommendations as to therapy/treatment/release

3. Why might this fail?  Too broad diagnostic criteria  Clinician’s own biases  Amount of information is too much to process  What do we know really about people who don’t re-offend (get caught at it!) – clinician’s only see those that do re-offend

4. A structured clinical assessment  Using risk assessment questionnaires/measures  PCL-R (psychopathy checklist revised)  Factor 1: pathological lying, lack of remorse or guilt, lack of responsibility for own actions, shallow emotion, ego-centrism  Factor 2: early behaviour problems, juvenile delinquency, need for stimulation (easily bored)  AND Promiscuity, short term (marital) relationships  Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG)  Separation from parent at age 16 (unless through death)  Poor primary school adjustment  Non-violent crimes before the current offence  Alcohol abuse history  RRASOR  Previous sexual offences  Offender under 25 years old  Male victim of a sex offence  Non-family victim of a sex offence

5. Do they work?  The PCL-R is good at predicting recidivism (e.g. Sloore et al. 2004, found that 36% of their sample re-offenders scored highly on this measure – at the psychopathic level)  The VRAG and PCL-R both predict violent behaviour and other crimes, but NOT sexual re-offending  RRASOR – some evidence it predicts sexual re-offending (higher levels on the scale)

6. Gretenkord (2000) – best predictors  Based on a study of men hospitalised in a forensic unit  Four predictors:  Presence of a personality disorder  Whether there is previous evidence/knowledge of a violent ‘pre-offence’ (i.e. Not the one currently being served for)  Physical aggression shown at least twice during prison/hospital stay  Age at the time of discharge / release

7. Worst prognosis...  If  Young (in 20s)  Had a personality disorder  Had committed a previous violent offence  Showed physical violence during stay

8. What you have to do  Develop your own risk assessment questionnaire based on the points we have discussed. You should cover:  Biographical (gender, age etc)  Personality  Previous behaviour  Current behaviour (in institution)  Other risk factors (drug abuse, alcoholism)  Read the simple case study you have and apply your risk assessment – summarise the risks as if you were reporting back to a parole board (i.e. with professionalism and depth)  Find out how well the PCL-R, VRAG and RRASOR predict recidivism for yourself (using the Internet)