1. Interested?? Limited seats available...contact Prof. Boychuk (gboychuk@uwaterloo.ca)

2. Important Announcements! NEW DUE DATES!!NEW DUE DATES!! paper proposal (Nov.17)paper proposal (Nov.17) paper (Dec.1)paper (Dec.1) FINAL TUTORIAL DATE CHANGE!!FINAL TUTORIAL DATE CHANGE!! –November 22-25, Tuesday to Friday, 9:00-9:50, HH334 Guide for the paper proposal online at http://www.arts.uwaterloo.ca/~gboychuk/psci2 64f05/assign.html.Guide for the paper proposal online at http://www.arts.uwaterloo.ca/~gboychuk/psci2 64f05/assign.html. http://www.arts.uwaterloo.ca/~gboychuk/psci2 64f05/assign.html http://www.arts.uwaterloo.ca/~gboychuk/psci2 64f05/assign.html

3. Important Announcements! MIKE MCGREGOR'S SPECIAL OFFICE HOURSMIKE MCGREGOR'S SPECIAL OFFICE HOURS –STILL ON THIS WEEK!! –STILL ON THIS WEEK!! PAS 1289PAS 1289 Monday 10:30-12:00Monday 10:30-12:00 Wednesday 12:30-2:00Wednesday 12:30-2:00 –NEXT WEEK!! PAS 1289PAS 1289 Monday 10:30-12:00Monday 10:30-12:00 Wednesday 12:30-2:00Wednesday 12:30-2:00

4. Exam Tip of the Day... there will not be a question from the section “The People Who Run for Office,” 176-9.there will not be a question from the section “The People Who Run for Office,” 176-9.

7. AMERICA DIVIDED? Part 3 November 8 th, 2005

14. America Divided? central thesiscentral thesis –individual Americans are more politicized –Americans are divided along an ideological spectrum into two broad groups –this division has a strong geographic orientation

15. America Divided? counterargumentcounterargument –American people are not divided –they are... disaffected and apatheticdisaffected and apathetic centrist (rather than divided into two distinct ideological camps)centrist (rather than divided into two distinct ideological camps) –relatively unified (more unified than divided) geographical divide is largely illusorygeographical divide is largely illusory –created by political institutions –reinforced by the media

16. America Divided? counterargumentcounterargument –American people are not divided –they are... disaffected and apatheticdisaffected and apathetic centrist (rather than divided into two distinct ideological camps)centrist (rather than divided into two distinct ideological camps) –relatively unified (more unified than divided) geographical divide is largely illusorygeographical divide is largely illusory –created by political institutions –reinforced by the media

17. Voter Turnout levels of voter turnoutlevels of voter turnout

22. 28.5%

24. Voter Turnout levels of voter turnoutlevels of voter turnout –two trends to be explained low voter turnoutlow voter turnout declining voter turnoutdeclining voter turnout

25. Voter Turnout levels of voter turnoutlevels of voter turnout –two trends to be explained low voter turnoutlow voter turnout declining voter turnoutdeclining voter turnout

26. Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout registration proceduresregistration procedures requires registrationrequires registration motor voter lawsmotor voter laws

28. Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout registration proceduresregistration procedures requires registrationrequires registration motor voter lawsmotor voter laws why is voter registration even an issue?why is voter registration even an issue?

29. Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout registration proceduresregistration procedures requires registrationrequires registration motor voter lawsmotor voter laws why is voter registration even an issue?why is voter registration even an issue? voter fatigue/strategic votingvoter fatigue/strategic voting

30. high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation –range of elective offices Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout

31. Elections in Massachusetts PresidentPresident US House of RepresentativesUS House of Representatives US SenateUS Senate state governorstate governor state representativestate representative state senatestate senate state attorney generalstate attorney general state auditorstate auditor state treasurer secretary of state county commissioner sheriff clerks of courts mayor city councillors school committee members

32. high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation –range of elective offices –primary elections elections (generally limited to self-identified party voters) to determine who will be the party’s candidate in a general election (open to the general public)elections (generally limited to self-identified party voters) to determine who will be the party’s candidate in a general election (open to the general public) Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout

35. high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation –range of elective offices –primary elections –referendums and initiatives Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout

36. Referendums and Initiatives – What are They? What are They?What are They? –initiative – proposal to put some issue to a referendum requires 3%-15% of voters to signrequires 3%-15% of voters to sign –proposition referendum question put directly on the ballotreferendum question put directly on the ballot

37. Referendums and Initiatives – How and When Are They Used? allowed by 24 statesallowed by 24 states –half of all initiatives take place in five states Oregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado, ArizonaOregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado, Arizona success ratesuccess rate 50% once they are on the ballot50% once they are on the ballot CaliforniaCalifornia 8-12 propositions on EACH ballot8-12 propositions on EACH ballot some propositions of VERY considerable importancesome propositions of VERY considerable importance November 8, 2005 electionsNovember 8, 2005 electionsNovember 8, 2005 electionsNovember 8, 2005 elections

38. high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation –range of elective offices –primary elections –referendums and initiatives Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout

39. high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation –range of elective offices –primary elections –referendums and initiatives actual participationactual participation –primaries (5%-20%) Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout

40. high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation –range of elective offices –primary elections –referendums and initiatives actual participationactual participation –primaries (5%-20%) –Presidential general election (45%-55%) Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout

41. high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation –range of elective offices –primary elections –referendums and initiatives actual participationactual participation –primaries (5%-20%) –Presidential general election (45%-55%) –Congressional elections (every two years) – 35%-40% Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout

43. strategic votingstrategic voting –vote in elections that are a close race –vote in elections with candidates that voter has strong feelings for/against –vote in elections with issues of relevance to voter the “Seinfeld” election in 2002?the “Seinfeld” election in 2002? –vote in elections where multiple offices/issues in play esp. Presidential electionsesp. Presidential elections Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout

44. expectation of lower voter turnoutexpectation of lower voter turnout –many more opportunties to vote lower voter turnout at eachlower voter turnout at each –voting is much more demanding lower voter turnoutlower voter turnout –primary voting range of candidates already narrowed prior to general electionrange of candidates already narrowed prior to general election –winner-take-all electoral system wasted voteswasted votes Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout

45. Voter Turnout levels of voter turnoutlevels of voter turnout –two trends to be explained low voter turnoutlow voter turnout declining voter turnoutdeclining voter turnout

46. Explaining Voter Turnout – Declining Voter Turnout alternative hypothesesalternative hypotheses –voter disaffection voters apathetic and do not feel that their vote will make a differencevoters apathetic and do not feel that their vote will make a difference –voter satisfaction voters are not sufficiently dissatisfied with the system to take the effort to get out and votevoters are not sufficiently dissatisfied with the system to take the effort to get out and vote

47. Explaining Voter Turnout – Declining Voter Turnout alternative hypothesesalternative hypotheses –voter disaffection voters apathetic and do not feel that their vote will make a differencevoters apathetic and do not feel that their vote will make a difference –voter satisfaction voters are not sufficiently dissatisfied with the system to take the effort to get out and votevoters are not sufficiently dissatisfied with the system to take the effort to get out and vote

48. contributing factorscontributing factors –demographics Explaining Voter Turnout – Declining Voter Turnout

51. contributing factorscontributing factors –demographics –less effort at voter mobilization by parties –sense that voting matters less voting less likely to have an impact on the outcome of electionsvoting less likely to have an impact on the outcome of elections –perception of fewer differences between party different outcomes less likely to have an impact on public policydifferent outcomes less likely to have an impact on public policy less interest in who winsless interest in who wins Explaining Voter Turnout – Declining Voter Turnout

52. contributing factorscontributing factors –demographics –less effort at voter mobilization by parties –sense that voting matters less voting less likely to have an impact on the outcome of electionsvoting less likely to have an impact on the outcome of elections –perception of fewer differences between party voting less likely to have an impact on the outcome of electionsvoting less likely to have an impact on the outcome of elections less interest in who winsless interest in who wins Explaining Voter Turnout – Declining Voter Turnout

53. incumbencyincumbency –safe seats vs. contested seats/key race importance of redistrictingimportance of redistricting Explaining Voter Turnout – Declining Voter Turnout

56. SEATS GAINED/LOST IN MID-TERM ELECTIONS BY PRESIDENT’S PARTY, 1942- 2002

57. incumbencyincumbency –safe seats vs. contested seats/key race importance of redistrictingimportance of redistricting –trends elections are increasingly referendums on incumbentselections are increasingly referendums on incumbents incumbent has to do something to loseincumbent has to do something to lose challenger finds it hard to get money...hard to break cyclechallenger finds it hard to get money...hard to break cycle increasingly powerful role of interest groupsincreasingly powerful role of interest groups Explaining Voter Turnout – Declining Voter Turnout

58. Voter Turnout -- Main Point! the American political system is geared towards providing considerable opportunities for mass political participationthe American political system is geared towards providing considerable opportunities for mass political participation actual levels of mass participation do not reach the “ideal”actual levels of mass participation do not reach the “ideal” –relatively low levels of voter turnout may not be particularly suprising –declining levels of voter turnout may be more problematic individual voters are NOT more politicized than they have been in the pastindividual voters are NOT more politicized than they have been in the past