1. Gustafsson/ Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly ICELAND 2010 Alcohol policy in transition and diverging alcohol patterns Nina-Katri Gustafsson

2. Gustafsson/ Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly 2010 Context Weakening of the Swedish alcohol policy Availability: quota changes 2002, 2003, 2004 Price changes: Danish spirits tax decrease 2003 Southern Sweden Expectations: increasing consumption and alcohol-related problem rates in southern parts

3. Gustafsson/ Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly 2010 The four studies Private imports to Sweden (self-reported) Consumption (self-reported) Social alcohol-related problems (self-reported) Alcohol-related harms (police and hospital registers)

4. Gustafsson/ Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly 2010 Private Imports AIM: Did the increase in quotas January 2002, 2003, 2004 affect private imports? DATA: Survey data on private imports (self-reported) METHOD: Comparing quarters and annual numbers Sweden divided by three regions Import by beverage RESULTS: -Largest change, largest effect -South more affected than northern or mid Sweden -Largest effect in spirits -Effects declining over the year

5. Gustafsson/ Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly 2010 Self-reported Consumption AIM: Did self-reported consumption increase in Southern Sweden? DATA: Survey data on self-reported consumption 03-06 METHOD: Northern Sweden was used as a control RESULTS: -No large changes -Where significant, usually in unexpected direction (S/N) -Spirits did not increase more than other beverages

6. Gustafsson/ Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly 2010 Self-reported problems AIM: Did self-reported problems increase in Southern Sweden? DATA: Survey data self-reported problems 03-06 METHOD: Problems mainly reported by two indexes Northern Sweden was used as a control RESULTS: -Overall followed consumption, but even less changes

7. Gustafsson/ Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly 2010 Harms by register data AIM: Did the increase in quotas and Danish tax change affect harms as reported by registers in southern Sweden? DATA: Hospital data on alcohol-poisoning cases Police-reported assults and drunk-driving cases METHOD: Time-series analysis Controling for two earlier quota changes (2002, 2003) and harms in northern Sweden RESULTS: -Alcohol poisonings incresed in souhern Sweden, sign. change in age group 50-69 years old

8. Gustafsson/ Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly 2010 Summary of the Results Southern Sweden Private imports increased Self-reported total consumption and alcohol- related problems did not increase Alcohol-poisonings increased but not other harms Northern Sweden Private imports or harms did not increase Self-reported total consumption and alcohol- related problems increased

9. Gustafsson/ Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly 2010 Explaining results/Discussion Southern Sweden Saturation? ”Charm of novelty” effect, change in another country Changes in drinking patterns? Affecting various groups differently? (heavy cons.) Northern Sweden Lagging behind the former increases in the south?

10. Gustafsson/ Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly 2010 Research for the future What has been happining in the northern site? Longer overall change or demographical explanations? Could consumption groups explain who changes? Were heavy consumers more likely to change?

11. Gustafsson/ Nordic Alcohol and Drug Researchers' Assembly 2010 Thank you for listening! Reference: Gustafsson N-K (2010) Bridging the World: Alcohol Policy and Diverging Alcohol Patterns in Sweden. Dissertation in Sociology. Stockholm: Department of Sociology, SU. (Parts co-authored with Mats Ramstedt.) Contact: nina-katri.gustafsson@sorad.su.se