1. Black Hills Complex Tetlin NWR and Wrangell St. Elias NPP Long Term Assessment August 2003 Kara Paintner

2. Overview Two fires – Fish Lake and Black Hills Wildland Fire for Resource Benefit Fire Size and Progression Weather Points of Concern Rare Events Risk Assessment Process (RERAP) results Potential for Research and Monitoring

3. Thank you… Mary Kwart Peter Butteri Brian Sorbel – NPS Alaska Region Fire GIS Specialist Marsha Henderson – Fire Management Officer, Wrangell St. Elias NPP Tim Hammond and staff – AFS GIS Line Officers at both Tetlin NWR and Wrangell St. Elias NPP

4. Fish Lake Fire Lightning 7/21/2003 Burning in area of 1996 fire Currently 110 acres

5. Black Hills Fire Started 7/16/2003 Major Growth –7/22/03 –8/9- 13/03 –8/15/03 –8/17/03 –8/18/03 Currently 42,600 ac

7. Resources to be Protected

9. Fuels assessed for each line to points of concern Historical winds examined to see the probability of winds pushing fire toward a point of concern

10. Rare Events Risk Assessment Process (RERAP) Season ending Event – Rainfall combined with depression of the Duff Moisture Code

11. Highest Risks DirectionProbability Worst Case Points of Concern Method Rare/ Significant Events Segment H – SE flank to MMA Boundary across Chisana River 5 % by 9/15 18 % by 9/15 MMA Boundary Rare Event Segment D – SE flank to Management Action Point on west side of Chisana River 3% by 9/15 14% by 9/15 MAP and MMA Boundary Rare Event Segment A – Fish Lake fire to allotment near Northway 3% by 9/15 8% by 9/15 Allotment and Northway Rare Event

12. Summary Largest Fire in Refuge History Fire Effects appear within Natural Range of Variability ‘Nice’ Mosaic Burn Severity Mapping Effects of mosaic on different habitats More research w/ Roger Ottmar Others…….