1. Introduction to Enviromental Modelling Lecture 1 – Basic Concepts Gilberto Câmara Tiago Carneiro Ana Paula Aguiar Sérgio Costa Pedro Andrade Neto

2. source: IGBP How is the Earth’s environment changing, and what are the consequences for human civilization? The fundamental question of our time

3. Global Change Where are changes taking place? How much change is happening? Who is being impacted by the change?

4. Slides from LANDSAT Aral Sea Bolivia 1975 19922000 197319872000 source: USGS Modelling Change: A Research Programme Understanding how humans use space Predicting changes resulting from human actions Modeling the interaction between society and nature

5. Modelling Complex Problems Application of interdisciplinary knowledge to produce a model. If (... ? ) then... Deforestation? source: Carneiro (2006)

6. What is Computational Modelling? Design and implementation of computational environments for modelling  Requires a formal and stable description  Implementation allows experimentation Rôle of computer representation  Bring together expertise in different field  Make the different conceptions explicit  Make sure these conceptions are represented in the information system

7. f ( I t+n ). FF f (I t )f (I t+1 )f (I t+2 ) Dynamic Spatial Models “A dynamical spatial model is a computational representation of a real-world process where a location on the earth’s surface changes in response to variations on external and internal dynamics on the landscape” (Peter Burrough)

8. t p - 20 t p - 10 tptp Calibration t p + 10 Scenario Dynamic Spatial Models source: Cláudia Almeida

9. Modelling Human Actions: Two Approaches Models based on global factors  Explanation based on causal models  Human_actions = f (factors,....) Emergent models  Local actions lead to global patterns  Simple interactions between individuals lead to complex behaviour  “The organism is intelligent, its parts are simple- minded”

10. Statistics: Humans as clouds Establishes statistical relationship with variables that are related to the phenomena under study Basic hypothesis: stationary processes Exemples: CLUE Model (University of Wageningen) y=a 0 + a 1 x 1 + a 2 x 2 +... +a i x i +E

11. Factors Affecting Deforestation source: Aguiar (2006)

12. Statistics: Humans as clouds Statistical analysis of deforestation source: Aguiar (2006)

13. Land Change Model (1997-2015) 0% ->100% Federative States Roads Projected hot spots of deforestation 1997- 2015: Percentage of change in forest cover from 1997 to 2015: Regionalizing the demand improves pressure on Central area, but Central area regressions emphasizes proximity to ports and rivers, due to historical process in the area, and not connectivity to the rest of the country. source: Aguiar (2006a)

14. Complex Adaptive Systems: Humans as Ants Cellular Automata:  Matrix,  Neighbourhood,  Set of discrete states,  Set of transition rules,  Discrete time. “CAs contain enough complexity to simulate surprising and novel change as reflected in emergent phenomena” (Mike Batty) Simple agents following simple rules can generate amazingly complex structures.

15. What are complex adaptive systems? Systems composed of many interacting parts that evolve and adapt over time. Organized behavior emerges from the simultaneous interactions of parts without any global plan.

16. Segregation Segregation is an outcome of individual choices But high levels of segregation mean that people are prejudiced?

17. Schelling Model for Segregation Start with a CA with “white” and “black” cells (random) The new cell state is the state of the majority of the cell’s Moore neighbours  White cells change to black if there are X or more black neighbours  Black cells change to white if there are X or more white neighbours How long will it take for a stable state to occur?

18. Schelling’s Model of Segregation Schelling (1971) demonstrates a theory to explain the persistence of racial segregation in an environment of growing tolerance If individuals will tolerate racial diversity, but will not tolerate being in a minority in their locality, segregation will still be the equilibrium situation

19. Schelling’s Model of Segregation < 1/3 Micro-level rules of the game Stay if at least a third of neighbors are “kin” Move to random location otherwise

20. Tolerance values above 30%: formation of ghettos http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/Segregation Schelling’s Model of Segregation

21. References J. Zhang. Residential segregation in an all- integrationist world. Journal of Economic Behaviour & Organization, v. 54 pp. 533- 550. 2004 T. C. Shelling. Micromotives and Macrobehavior. Norton, New York. 1978

22. Zhang: Residential segregation in an all-integrationist world Some studies show that most people prefer to live in a non-segregated society. Why there is so much segregation?

23. Satisfaction

25. Agents moving

28. Simulation