1. Mbombela Climate Change Workshop 2 5 November 2015 Civic Centre Hall, Mbombela

2. Workshop Agenda ITEMTIME Chair 1) Welcome and introductions 9:00-9:15Deputy MM & Warrick Stewart 2) Workshop objectives & project overview 9:15-9:25 Warrick Stewart 3) Summary of Phase 1 Policy Workshop 9:25-9:40 Victoria Braham 4) Brief overview of Draft Policy Document 9:40-10:00 Paul Jorgensen 5) Case studies of local climate change responses 10:00-11:00 Various 6) Tea 11:00-11:15 All participants 7) MLM “Vulnerability Framework” 11:15-11:30 Paul Jorgensen 8) Strategy development 11:30-13:30 All participants 9) Way forward13:30-14:00 Warrick Stewart 10) Close and Lunch14:00-15:00All participants

3. Introduction to the Vulnerability Framework Mbombela Local Municipality – Climate Change Strategy Workshop 5 November 2015 Civic Centre Hall, Mbombela

4. Purpose of this Presentation  Provide a high level overview of climate trends, future climate scenarios for the region  Highlight the municipal services that could be affected by a changing climate  Provide an indication of the vulnerable sectors and communities within the MLM  Source further information (VA is in development)

5. Climate Trends – Temperature  Mean annual temperatures have increased by at least 1.5 times the observed global average of 0.65°C  Maximum (Strongest Sep – Nov) and minimum (Dec-Feb and Jun – Aug) temperatures show significant increases  High temperature extremes have increased significantly in frequency, and low temperatures have decreased significantly in frequency (Jun – Nov)

6. Climate Trends – Rainfall  High interannual and decadle rainfall variability  Tendency towards decrease in total precipitation (Mar – May)  Fewer number of rain days (Dec – May)  Tendency towards an increase in the intensity of rainfall events (Dec – Feb) and increased dry spell duration

7. Climate change scenarios  “All modelling approaches project warming trends until the end of this century, but most approaches project the possibility of both drying and wetting trends in almost all parts of South Africa” (uncertainty with rainfall predictions)

8. Climate change scenarios Future predictions from the LTAS for the region

9. Climate change scenarios per sectors  LTAS phase one and two sector specific reports will be used to inform risks and opportunities  Including various other sources of information from DEA, DWS, WRC, DAFF, ARC, academia etc,

10. Climate change scenarios  What types of impacts are likely?  Reduced water resource availability  Higher frequency of flooding and drought events  Intense weather events  Heatwaves  Higher maximum and minimum temperatures

11. What makes up the MLM  2013 -2014 National land use and cover  Thicket/dense bush, woodland, open bush  Plantations  Urban  Cultivation commercial  Cultivation subsistence

12. Orange – Plantation Maroon – Cultivated Yellow/purple – urban Light purple – cultivated subsistence

13. Economic sectors Economic sectors contributing to the GDP SectorSector Contribution to economy (%) Agriculture4% Mining3% Manufacturing17% Utilities2% Construction3% Trade Sector13% Transport & communication10% Finance and business22% Services9%

14. Economic growth sectors  2015 MLM LED Strategy Review: sectors to contribute to future economic growth  Agriculture: improved access to market and increased inputs to agri- processing  Manufacturing: expand existing industries and develop niche industries to promote exports  Trade: grow regional trade hub  Tourism: promote tourism assists  Construction: MU and ICC developments

15. Economic growth sectors  2015 MLM LED Strategy Review: sectors to contribute to future economic growth – Climate change links  Agriculture: resource availability, transport links, plant physiology  Manufacturing: resource availability, transport links, green economy opportunities  Trade: transport, green economy opportunities  Tourism: biodiversity, transport links, resource availability  Construction: knowledge generation and sharing opportunities

16. Social indicators  MLM has an estimated 612 927 people and 170 544 households (93 % formal, 5% informal)  22% of households have no access to piped water  13% of population have no income (2011) (R1 – R4800 = 4.9%)  10% households with no access to electricity  593km tarred roads and 2005km gravel roads 

17. Social indicators  Morning peak, 80% of person trips are in public transport (2 hours daily from home to work)  33 % individuals have a matric (aged 20+)  77.3% settlements classified as tribal/traditional

18. Potentially vulnerable areas, sectors and groups  Marginalized groups  Subsistence farmers and the rural poor  Low lying areas  Forestry  Peri-urban settlements  Informal settlements  Agriculture (commercial and subsistence)

19. Potential vulnerable areas and sectors  Marginalized groups MLM has 6613 people registered with disabilities, most of whom are suffering extreme poverty. 22359 people are over the age of 65 and considered to be elderly. High HIV/AIDS prevalence 39% of all households in the MLM are headed up by females Vulnerable to the effects of climate change, because they have the lowest resilience capacities, and little means of overcoming this without focused response strategy and planning.

20. Potential vulnerable areas and sectors  Subsistence farmers and the rural poor  Over 77% of Mbombela’s settlements are tribal/traditional  Rural communities are involved in subsistence farming (21% Agricultural households)  Dependence on rain for food production makes the impacts of drought so dramatic and widespread in the rural areas.  Lack of service and transport infrastructure in the rural parts of the MLM hampers access to market or support

21. Potential vulnerable areas and sectors  Low lying settlements  39% houses fall within flood lines.  Both formal and informal settlements  47 000 households in rural areas are without radio communication system coverage to alert the unit during disasters

22. Potential vulnerable areas and sectors  Urban/Peri-urban settlements eg. between Kanyamazane and Nsikazi.  Significant peri-urban area (77.3% classified as tribal/traditional) is largely a result of urban migration, traditional and historical land systems.  Compounded existing legacy and socio-economic issues including distance/time to work, unemployment, water access, housing and sanitation supply

23. Potential vulnerable areas and sectors  White River/Kabokweni  Frequent and extended water shortages, particularly during the dry season.  The service demand in the area, for over 10 years is thought to have exceeded the supply by as much as 30%  Area is particularly vulnerable to increased variations in future rainfall patterns and drought

24. Potential vulnerable areas and sectors  Commercial Agricultural Sector  Commercial farming: Increasing irrigation, fuel, fertiliser, mechanisation and genetically modified seed inputs.  Single-variety crops at risk, (new pests and pathogens, soil composition changes etc.)  Risk to both the local economy and food security.

25. Potential vulnerable areas and sectors  Forestry Sector  Nearly all in MLM are non-indigenous plantations (wattle, pine and eucalypts).  Non-indigenous plantations can lead to competition for water resources and would be vulnerable to water.

26. Way forward  On all of the tables there is a map, please think of the information presented here to assist in identifying vulnerable hotspots  Rapid vulnerability assessment to be included in the strategy document  Sharing of information

27. Stakeholder liaison Victoria Braham srkzaenviro2@srk.co.za 011 441 1111 Questions or comments? Contact information

28. Workshop Agenda ITEMTIME Chair 1) Welcome and introductions 9:00-9:15Deputy MM & Warrick Stewart 2) Workshop objectives & project overview 9:15-9:25 Warrick Stewart 3) Summary of Phase 1 Policy Workshop 9:25-9:40 Victoria Braham 4) Brief overview of Draft Policy Document 9:40-10:00 Paul Jorgensen 5) Case studies of local climate change responses 10:00-11:00 Various 6) Tea 11:00-11:15 All participants 7) MLM “Vulnerability Framework” 11:15-11:30 Paul Jorgensen 8) Strategy development 11:30-13:30 All participants 9) Way forward13:30-14:00 Warrick Stewart 10) Close and Lunch14:00-15:00All participants

29. Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy Sector-based small group strategy session

30. Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy Sector-based small group strategy session: 1)Planning (Building Codes, Land Use Planning, Human Settlements) 2)Local Economic Development (LED), Manufacturing, Industry (incl. processing), Tourism 3)Agriculture and Forestry 4)Transport, Roads, Stormwater, Water & Sanitation 5)Energy, Electricity & Air Quality 6)Disaster Management & Emergency Services 7)Parks, Conservation, Waste Management, Community & Health Services

31. Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy Sector-based small group strategy sessions: Identify key actions to address climate change risks and capitalise on opportunities Identify priority actions Determine if short, medium or long term actions, or all Identify if actions can be linked to existing plans, projects, programmes, tools, processes Identify responsible parties for implementation and potential partners/collaborators On the provided map and key sheet, document priority areas of risk / or for implementation

32. Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy SECTORS: PARTICIPANTS (PLEASE LIST YOUR NAMES): Mark with an “X” where appropriate ACTIONS Current action Future action Short term (1 year) Medium term (2-5 years) Long term (5+ years) PRIORITY? YES/NORESPONSIBLE PARTIES

33. Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy Sector-based small group strategy sessions: Identify key actions to address climate change risks and capitalise on opportunities Identify priority actions Determine if short, medium or long term actions, or all Identify if actions can be linked to existing plans, projects, programmes, tools, processes Identify responsible parties for implementation and potential partners/collaborators On the provided map and key sheet, document priority areas of risk / or for implementation

34. Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy Sector-based small group strategy sessions: Determine time-frames for implementation, responsible parties, links with current plans/tools Once captured all actions, prioritise them Consider insights gained from past, current and potential future challenges and climate-related events (e.g. floods, drought, fire, traffic congestion, air pollution etc.) Please capture your group’s inputs as you work on them i.e. capture an action before discussing the next one

36. Questions or comments?

37. Workshop Agenda ITEMTIME Chair 1) Welcome and introductions 9:00-9:15Deputy MM & Warrick Stewart 2) Workshop objectives & project overview 9:15-9:25 Warrick Stewart 3) Summary of Phase 1 Policy Workshop 9:25-9:40 Victoria Braham 4) Brief overview of Draft Policy Document 9:40-10:00 Paul Jorgensen 5) Case studies of local climate change responses 10:00-11:00 Various 6) Tea 11:00-11:15 All participants 7) MLM “Vulnerability Framework” 11:15-11:30 Paul Jorgensen 8) Strategy development 11:30-13:30 All participants 9) Way forward13:30-14:00 Warrick Stewart 10) Close and Lunch14:00-15:00All participants

38. Way Forward SRK to draft minutes from the workshop and circulate, including presentations MLM reviewing draft Policy until end November SRK will circulate revised draft policy to stakeholders for comment during December 2015 and January 2016 Final policy to be submitted to MLM council for approval in mid-February or March

39. Way Forward SRK to develop draft strategy, based on stakeholder inputs SRK to finalise draft strategy for MLM review, stakeholder comment and then council-approval during 2 nd half of 2016 SRK to organise workshop for implementation plan phase for 2 nd half of 2016 Ongoing opportunity for stakeholder input into process

40. Stakeholder liaison Victoria Braham srkzaenviro2@srk.co.za 011 441 1111 Thank you for your attendance and input! Contact information