1. Hard and Soft Considerations in Procurement Planning in the IDF Example through medical supplies

2. Introduction The IDF, like any military, maintains large inventories of munitions for a rainy day. How much ammunition of each type should be procured? This is a tour of the decision making process through the prism of “ soft-hard ” problems and analysis.

3. Ice-Cream Cone Model One of the fundamental questions: What do we need to win the war? The required answer: 32,745 tank rounds, 714 JDAM, etc.

4. Basic Method Benchmark scenario Consumption model Operational availability considerations Meet reality ($)

5. The Planner ’ s Advantage Israel ’ s disadvantage - bad neighbors. The planners ’ advantage - know your enemy scenario

6. The Scenario is A possible depiction of a future war. Details blue forces deployment and basic action (defence, offence), at the division level - division fighting days (DFDs). Serves as a common reference to all services. scenario

7. How to choose a scenario Not a “ hard ” question, but a difficult one. Span many possible futures Zero-order estimation: Variations on order of opponents and duration of each stage. Not too strenuous, or budget constraints will render results of the analysis irrelevant. ABC scenario

8. Initial Problem Break-up Medical kits used to treat soldiers injured in combat. Medical kits used to treat soldiers injured at the bases. Medical kits requirement for units.

9. Combat Consumption model How many medical supply kits does a division need per day? How many soldiers are injured in a brigade, per day? Quite the gummy-bear model Still a gummy-bear ArmouredInfantry

10. Where do we start? Go back in time for a straw to cling to In 1973, the answer was roughly 50, of which about a quarter were various support troops.

11. Adjust for the Present Scenario adjustments (inherent in the process) Technology adjustments i.e. addition of flak vest Tactical adjustments i.e. increased fortifications

12. Introduction of Flak Vest Fiddled 1982 data for infantry soldiers Derive Upper bound: If vest does not reduce injury rate: Expect same injury ratio in both columns So the vests spared 20 injuries, And reduced 3% of injuries TOTALWore vest at time NoYes 139 65 (24%) 74 (20%) Yes Hit in protected area 505 205 (76%) 300 (80%) No 644270374TOTAL 24% 20 + 20 664 76%

13. Points to Ponder How do we know all important adjustments are accounted for? At what point does adjusted 1973 data lose its relevance?

14. Consumption at Bases Develop threat scenario: types numbers timing of rocket attacks on various bases.

15. Effects of Rocket Attack Result of each rocket salvo determined by Accuracy and lethality of rockets Number, dispersion and behavior of people Lethality determined by engineering studies and warhead experiments

16. Unit stocks Guarantee X days of operational self- sufficiency. Daily requirement - from precise model U = XD Deeply analysed Loosely analysed

17. Putting It All Together Medical kits used to treat soldiers injured in combat. Medical kits used to treat soldiers injured at the bases. Medical kits requirement for units. C Sad fact (for the analyst): U >> C U

18. Meet Reality In most cases, other factors may be dominant: Budget constraints Supporting local industry Lead time required to close gaps Inter-service politics

19. Conclusion Greater emphasis is placed on the “ hard ” elements of the equation, although the “ soft ” parts matter more. Possible reasons: We do what we are trained to Numbers give a sense of “ security ” Effort gives a sense of “ credibility ”