1. Housing Need & Demand in Scotland Kenneth Gibb Seminar in Honour of Alan Holmans December 7 2015, LSE London

2. Scotland Local Housing Systems Analysis and Local Housing Strategies Evolving Housing Needs (chiefly Glen) Housing Needs and Demand Approaches led by Scottish Government Centre for Housing Market Analysis (HNDA) Gross Flows models – interactions of households and housing stock – includes migration, household formation, affordability, etc. and forms the principal guidance in Scotland and England National ‘official’ estimates of annual need: - 8,000 in 2006 - 12,000 in 2015

3. Gross Flows National Need Model 2015 Core model and variations (migration, disaggregation and market growth) Backlog need (11,184) Newly arising need (26,461) Affordable supply (27,326) (adjusted figure) for annual affordable need 12,014 Assumptions Responses

4. Housing Demand and Supply Housebuilding performance Prices, rents and affordability Household and population growth Lending and land Scotland is different – policy divergence, council tax and constitutional change opportunities

5. Alan’s contribution Critical to the evolution of housing needs and demand research Personally always very helpful and supportive Memorable mixed metaphors