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Long-term Technology Strategy for Global GHG Stabilization: with Application for India P.R. Shukla
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THE FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (FCCC) Objective:...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. (p.5)
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BENCHMARKS ___________________________ 2 CO 2 Concentration 275 ppmv in 1850 358 ppmv in 1994 2 1990 Anthropogenic Emissions Rate Fossil Fuels=6.0 PgC/yr Land-Use Change (deforestation)=1.3 PgC/yr
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ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION EMISSIONS PATHS Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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Global Emissions and Concentration Paths for Annex I Emissions Mitigation Emissions Concentrations Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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LONG-TERM RESOURCE ISSUES of the UNFCCC Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 2 Stranded Assets Physical Capital Fossil Fuel Resources 2 Ratio of Financial Flows/Economic Cost Cost = $15-$30 billion Tax Revenues = $150 billion 2 Non-Annex I Economic Development
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REFERENCE CASE ASSUMPTIONS ___________________________ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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REGIONAL POPULATION Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH Pacific Northwest National Laboratory GDP Per Capita GDP
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NON-ANNEX I GRADUATION
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CARBON STORAGE RESERVOIRS Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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Stabilizing the Atmosphere: Some Conclusions 2 Free Venting of Carbon Must Eventually Be Phased Out, 2 But Not Necessarily Fossil Fuels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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GHG Stabilization Analysis for India
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Global Energy Shares ERB Reference : 2095 21 PgC/yr 1990 5.8 PgC/yr
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Global Energy Shares ERB Reference : 2095 21 PgC/yr 1990 5.8 PgC/yr
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Energy Use in India
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Indian Energy Trends
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Indian Energy Intensity Trends
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Future Indian Emissions? Cumulative Emissions (1990 - 2095): Pg. CBF Reference :109 India 550 : 63 India CBF Business As Usual 1990 Technology India 550 India CBF Ref
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Filling the Indian Gap AOG, Competitive Solution
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Filling the Indian Gap AOG, Imperfect Institutions
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India Modeling: Technologies 1) Natural Gas 2) Energy Efficiency 3) Clean Coal 4) Nuclear 5) Renewables 6) Transport 7) Carbon Capture
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Filling the Indian Gap?
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