1. A. Magnien - 1/12/2003 ERTMS on the PBKAL corridor Financial analysis, a first step Dec. 3, 2003

2. A. Magnien - 1/12/2003 … first, a pinch of salt : Most data or assumptions have been provided by various IMs or RUs (warm thanks), and collected by UIC Some data had to be extrapolated Data assembly by AEIF / EEG speaker The following is not an official statement by any of the aforementioned bodies, but An attempt to estimate orders of magnitude and methodological difficulties

3. A. Magnien - 1/12/2003 The PBKAL corridor A mixture of Conventional & high speed lines Conventional & high speed trains With a highly specialized link (Chunnel) Cumulated line length = 1025 km 25 segments, from 2 km to 200 km

4. A. Magnien - 1/12/2003 Assessment What ? Where ? When ? Why ?

5. A. Magnien - 1/12/2003 What, Where : trackside ETCS Double Ground = ETCSn overlaid on active « legacy » signalling system Exception = where existing planning only considers ETCS (? - with, maybe, lineside signals for backup)  « Infrastructure- only » assessment

6. A. Magnien - 1/12/2003 GSM-R GSM-R supposed available where ETCS2 is proposed Quality of service to be considered Cost model made available by GSM-R Industry Group Cost calculation made for Chunnel only

7. A. Magnien - 1/12/2003 Unit costs GSM-R : included in model ETCS : wide range ; per double track km : –ETCS 2 Lowest : 22.3 kEur adapted interlocking, few LEUs, no added GSM- R… –ETCS 2 Highest : 240 kEur Ill-adapted interlocking… –ETCS 1 Lowest : 75 kEur –ETCS 1 highest : 170 kEur Signal density in urban areas is generally high

8. A. Magnien - 1/12/2003 First Results / shortcomings ETCS only 45 MEuro GSM-R for chunnel only 28 MEuro Not counted : – Interlocking renewal (generally) – GSM-R upgrade – Track possession – …and, of course, Rolling Stock ! Not considered : – Operational need for diverted routes or branch lines (alternatively, STM availability)

9. A. Magnien - 1/12/2003 Scheduling Issues Advance investment in GSM-R –induces financial costs –Feasibility not 100% guaranteed (time constraints on Rolling Stock migration?) Coordination between national ETCS equipment plans, to reduce number of signalling transitions Delay between Pilot Projects and further projects Output capacity (Signalling Engineering, Industry) ETCS 2 - specific : interlocking replacement schedule, in some cases

10. A. Magnien - 1/12/2003 Further Work Clarify and rank needs & constraints, e.g. : avoid additional on-board equipment, avoid retrofit of existing rolling stock, avoid lineside signalling system transitions… Establish an infrastructure schedule (ETCS and GSM-R) co-ordinated between countries Consider « natural » Rolling Stock migration (application of 96/48, 2001/16 and TSIs) For other Rolling Stock, examine cost & benefit to determine « induced » migration Estimate Project and escalated costs Estimate escalated benefits