1. Early Selection in Hungary A Possible Cause of High Educational Inequality Daniel Horn research fellow IE-HAS and ELTEcon horn@econ.core.hu

2. Motivation Age of selection is likely the best proxy for comprehensive schooling (The later the first age of selection the longer students will study in heterogeneous groups) Comprehensive schooling is said to be decreasing inequality (Meghir and Palme 2005, Pekkarinen, Uusilato and Kerr 2007) – and tracking correlates with higher inequality across countries (e.g. Hanushek and Woessmann 2005, Pfeffer 2008, Horn 2009) Why? – Teachers matter (Hanushek, Rivkin and Kain 2005; McKinsey 2007) – Peers matter (Sacerdote 2001, Hanushek et al 2003.) – … So the longer one studies in selected groups the larger the difference will be The Hungarian system is an „ideal” case for testing early selection

3. Inequality in the Hungarian education system is especially high Source: OECD PISA 2009 Vol. II, p 44. The system of education is certainly not comprehensive

4. The Hungarian public education system HUNGARY2009/2010 level ISCED 0ISCED 1ISCED 2ISCED 3 1st cycle2nd cycle Grade 12345678910111213 kindergartengeneral school academic secondary school track. ISCED 3a 1 vocational secondary school track. ISCED 3a (technikum) 1 vocational training track ISCED 3c (ex-apprentice training) Age3456789101112131415161718 Early-selective tracks 8-yr-ac and 6-yr-ac

5. Track type combinations within sites Number of sites general8-yr-ac6-yr-ac4-yr-actechnikum voc. train. 2463100000 228000011 162000010 95000110 91000100 82101100 78000001 72100100 52110100 50000111 43100001 23110000 101000 101110 15110110 14100010 8001100 8100011 8100110 7100101 7100111 5000101 3101010 3111100 2010100 2001110 2101111 1001111 1110010 1111000 1110101 1110111 1111110

6. Questions Are early-selective tracks status selective? Do early-selective tracks have a higher value- added? If answers are affirmative the early selective tracks increase initial differences between students based on their status. Thus, the Hungarian system is more unequal (ceteris paribus) because of the early selection.

7. Data National Assessment of Basic Competencies (NABC) – Annually collected since 2006, PISA-like survey of all 6th, 8th and 10th grade students (see below) – Reading and mathematical literacy – Approximate mean: 1500, sd: 200 (before 2010: 500/100) Cross cohort and cross year comparable. Mean 1500 and sd 100 is only for 2008. 6th grade – Detailed background questionnaires (generated Socio- economic status (SES) index) – Individual panel since 2008

8. The NABC cohorts 4th grade6th grade8th grade10th grade 20030 20 students from every school0 20 students from each track from each school 20040 20 students from every school 20 students from each track from each school 2006full cohort every student from a sample of 195 schoolsfull cohort 30 students from each track from each teaching site 2007full cohort every student from a sample of 200 schoolsfull cohort 30 students from each track from each teaching site 2008* every student from a sample of 200 schoolsfull cohort 2009* every student from a sample of 200 schoolsfull cohort 2010* every student from a sample of 200 schoolsfull cohort * Individual identification numbers available

9. Descriptive statistics

10. Number and percentage of students in different tracks 6th to 8th grade panel 2010/8th grade 2008/6th grade Type of track General8-yr-ac6-yr-acMissingTotal General9120019453186821103533 (81,9%)(0,2%)(4,8%)(6,1%)(93,0%) 8-yr-ac136383980664121 (0,1%)(3,4%)(0,1%) (3,7%) Missing3331421261493648 (3,0%)(0,0%)(0,1%) (3,3%) Total94667407555247036111302 (85,1%)(3,7%)(5,0%)(6,3%)(100,0%)

11. Number and percentage of students in different tracks 8th to 10th grade panel 2010/10th grade 2008/8th grade Type of track8-yr-ac6-yr-ac4-yr-actechnikumvc. trainingMissingTotal General1392932871535948172811609798473 (0,1%)(0,2%)(23,2%)(29,0%)(13,9%)(13,0%)(79,4%) 8-yr-ac302432488191231773935 (2,4%)(0,0%)(0,4%)(0,2%)(0,0%)(0,1%)(3,2%) 6-yr-ac204617599249242775786 (0,0%)(3,7%)(0,5%)(0,2%)(0,0%)(0,2%)(4,7%) Missing8322026276716597915315778 (0,1%)(0,2%)(2,1%)(5,4%)(4,8%)(0,1%)(12,7%) Total3266516232429431042330716704123972 (2,6%)(4,2%)(26,2%)(34,8%)(18,8%)(13,5%)(100,0%)

12. Average literacy scores Math2008/6th grade2010/8th grade2008/8th grade 2010/10th grade General 1491161516041615* 8-yr-ac 1673178217721821 6-yr-ac 1675175617551807 4-yr-ac 1693*1704 technikum 1598*1608 voc. train. 1450*1452 Read2008/6th grade2010/8th grade2008/8th grade 2010/10th grade General 1494157615831628* 8-yr-ac 1667174617541817 6-yr-ac 1661172617391806 4-yr-ac 1682*1744 technikum 1578*1622 voc. train. 1408*1410

13. Average SES Socio-economic Status (SES) 2008/6th grade2008/8th grade General (other)-0,059 8-yr-ac0,850,8 6-yr-ac0,820,8 4-yr-ac0,39 technikum-0,1 voc. train.-0,81

14. ARE EARLY-SELECTIVE TRACKS STATUS SELECTIVE? 1st question

15. Problems Pr(track)=a+b*SES+c*Score+e Test score point estimate for 8-yr-ac is endogenous Track->score->track choice 6-yr-ac is unbiased – 6th grade score is a unaffected by 6-yr-ac track effect

16. Logit estimate DV=6-yr-long academic tracks 6-yr-long academic(1)(2)(3)(4)(5) SES, std2.961***2.041***1.870***2.075*** (0.161)(0.0919)(0.0947)(0.0680) Math score, 6th grade, std2.122***1.859***1.889***2.498*** (0.120)(0.102)(0.125)(0.0958) Reading score, 6th grade, std1.818***1.534***1.480***1.717*** (0.0759)(0.0624)(0.0743)(0.0701) Female1.189***1.0631.124*1.1131.124** (0.0758)(0.0693)(0.0722)(0.0796)(0.0535) Constant0.0339***0.0314***0.0254***0.0405*** (0.00359)(0.00351)(0.00293)(0.00522) Observations94,02493,79989,44834,88426,713 6-yr-ac closer than 3kmnnnyy Previous school FEnn n n y Robust, site-clusterer standard errors in parentheses, ORs reported; std - 0 mean/ 1-sd *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

17. DO EARLY-SELECTIVE TRACKS HAVE A HIGHER VALUE-ADDED? (6TH TO 8TH GRADE) 2nd question

18. OLS estimate DV= literacy score 2008/8th grade (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10) VARIABLESReadMathReadMathReadMathReadMathReadMath General track -150.6***-141.6***-28.17***-1.659-6.411**10.07**-7.513***4.499-39.32***-26.12 (6.917)(10.37)(2.980)(4.378)(2.716)(4.291)(2.841)(4.228)(7.808)(18.04) 8-yr-ac 19.84**26.08*15.18***28.19***14.87***27.64***14.35***28.04***0.89732.13 (9.604)(15.34)(3.955)(6.527)(3.652)(6.345)(3.681)(6.180)(11.73)(20.32) Reading, 2008/6 0.748***0.543***0.165***0.543***0.165***0.533***0.174*** (0.00397)(0.00477)(0.00555)(0.00477)(0.00554)(0.00398)(0.00401) Math, 2008/6 0.772***0.222***0.633***0.222***0.632***0.241***0.626*** (0.00561)(0.00475)(0.00646)(0.00477)(0.00647)(0.00355)(0.00490) SES 16.16***11.79***16.30***12.16***13.23***13.11*** (0.744)(0.899)(0.743)(0.899)(0.542)(0.574) female 43.45***-26.57***43.43***-26.66***43.54***-27.65*** (0.967)(1.094)(0.967)(1.094)(0.922)(0.960) Ed. Provider FE nnnnnnyynn Site FE nnnnnnnnyy Constant 1,726***1,756***483.6***461.3***414.7***426.3***416.3***433.3***432.7***455.1*** (6.703)(10.19)(7.294)(10.13)(7.453)(10.38)(7.573)(10.53)(9.285)(18.42) Observations85,55085,54985,55085,54982,21182,21082,21182,21082,21182,210 R-squared0.0620.0510.5980.5770.6380.5950.6380.5960.6960.711 Reference 6-yr-ac, Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

19. Problems Endogenity – students start general tracks six years, and 8-yr-ac tracks two years earier than we measure them. Thus 6th grade test scores reflect the quality of the given track (6-yr-ac value-added is unbiased) Instrumental variable estimation – instrument: distance from nearest 6-yr-ac and 8- yr-ac

20. Instrumental variable estimation OLSIV - First stageIV- Second Stage VARIABLESReadMathaltgimn8ReadMath alt-7.513***4.499-97.80**-7.669 (2.841)(4.228)(42.33)(60.49) 8-yr-long14.35***28.04***-6.899-58.48 (3.681)(6.180)(48.67)(71.32) Reading, 2008/60.543***0.165***-7.91e-05***3.45e-05***0.536***0.167*** (0.00477)(0.00554)(1.08e-05)(7.93e-06)(0.00574)(0.00710) Math, 2008/60.222***0.632***-0.000198***7.43e-05***0.205***0.636*** (0.00477)(0.00647)(1.98e-05)(1.43e-05)(0.00918)(0.0128) SES16.30***12.16***-0.0297***0.0113***13.46***12.97*** (0.743)(0.899)(0.00258)(0.00173)(1.375)(1.906) female43.43***-26.66***-0.0136***0.00878***42.48***-26.09*** (0.967)(1.094)(0.00281)(0.00178)(1.139)(1.370) Distance from 8-yr-ac 0.000833**-0.00187*** (0.000370)(0.000226) Distance from 6-yr-ac 0.00174***0.000670* (0.000409)(0.000355) Ed. Provider FEyyyyyy Constant416.3***433.3***1.340***-0.129***538.5***436.5*** (7.573)(10.53)(0.0294)(0.0207)(55.98)(79.61) Observations82,21182,21085,812 82,07982,078 R-squared0.6380.5960.2510.1210.6260.590 Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

21. DO EARLY-SELECTIVE TRACKS HAVE A HIGHER VALUE-ADDED? (8TH TO 10TH GRADE) 2nd question

22. (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10) VARIABLESReadMathReadMathReadMathReadMathReadMath 8-yr-long 11.8014.651.2151.837-0.6961.666-1.3251.574-0.195-1.311 (10.06)(15.32)(5.343)(6.949)(4.632)(6.719)(4.586)(6.398)(6.568)(7.946) 4-yr-long -61.41***-102.6***-23.83***-57.09***-18.29***-47.35***-17.83***-49.09***-16.98***-47.11*** (7.405)(10.36)(3.967)(4.714)(3.470)(4.333)(3.469)(4.254)(4.223)(4.519) Reading, 2008/8 0.682***0.549***0.194***0.549***0.193***0.512***0.167*** (0.00538)(0.00533)(0.00553)(0.00534)(0.00551)(0.00473)(0.00478) Math, 2008/8 0.732***0.181***0.578***0.179***0.575***0.146***0.532*** (0.00878)(0.00507)(0.00891)(0.00505)(0.00884)(0.00424)(0.00811) SES 11.37***11.23***11.60***11.51***5.565***6.734*** (0.744)(0.810)(0.738)(0.801)(0.543)(0.590) female 31.69***-73.75***31.51***-73.93***26.63***-72.09*** (1.396)(1.520)(1.389)(1.514)(1.116)(1.264) szakk -183.6***-198.4***-74.17***-83.47***-55.90***-72.16***-53.69***-73.87***-50.66***-68.80*** (8.064)(11.65)(4.366)(5.439)(3.882)(4.891)(3.925)(4.879)(5.305)(5.958) szaki -396.1***-354.9***-172.1***-132.2***-138.4***-109.8***-136.9***-112.4***-128.5***-112.3*** (8.463)(11.37)(5.194)(5.982)(4.866)(5.593)(4.896)(5.592)(6.059)(6.934) Ed. Provider FE nnnnnnyynn Site FE nnnnnnnnyy Constant 1,806***1,807***619.0***520.1***507.7***485.7***514.2***499.5***622.5***601.7*** (7.200)(10.84)(10.17)(15.41)(10.20)(14.60)(10.41)(14.37)(9.424)(13.58) Observations 76,53076,52176,53076,52173,25673,25373,25673,25373,25673,253 R-squared 0.3750.2550.6390.5920.6590.6330.6600.6340.6990.677 Robust standard errors in parentheses, reference: 6-yr-ac

23. Instrumental variable estimation OLSIV - First stageIV- Second Stage VARIABLESReadMathaltgimn8ReadMath 8-yr-long13.74***40.79***13.2249.55* (3.517)(4.614)(25.31)(29.26) 6-yr-long16.00***42.19***-15.1744.15** (3.446)(3.734)(21.65)(21.00) Reading, 2008/80.546***0.180***8.77e-05***0.000116***0.549***0.178*** (0.00808)(0.00838)(2.43e-05)(2.49e-05)(0.00866)(0.00871) Math, 2008/80.213***0.708***8.48e-05***7.13e-05**0.215***0.707*** (0.00636)(0.00991)(2.90e-05)(3.33e-05)(0.00720)(0.0103) SES10.24***9.553***0.0110***0.0305***11.43***9.333*** (0.933)(1.033)(0.00325)(0.00422)(1.099)(1.160) female29.39***-70.96***-0.00383-0.0131**28.89***-70.91*** (1.508)(1.647)(0.00372)(0.00661)(1.600)(1.687) Distance from 8- yr-ac -0.00423***0.00101* (0.000492)(0.000612) Distance from 6- yr-ac 0.00123*-0.00558*** (0.000708)(0.000527) Ed. Provider FEyyyyyy Constant445.7***245.3***-0.190***-0.180***437.9***248.5*** (12.89)(14.22)(0.0530)(0.0593)(14.93)(15.54) Observations30,889 32,396 30,859 R-squared0.5370.6430.0690.0650.5330.643 Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

24. Conclusion

25. Early selective tracks are status selective (6-yr- ac tested) Early selective tracks have a higher value added – even if biased estimates are controlled for – Between 6th and 8th grade in reading, and – Between 8th adn 10th grade in math Early selection increases the gap between students of different social background

26. Thank you for your attention! Comments welcome! horn@econ.core.hu

27. Spatial distribution of early selective tracks