1. Michael Kuby, Professor, ASU School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning with Scott Bernstein, President Center for Neighborhood Technology, Chicago

2. In US, household size is shrinking - and Phoenix is on track with national trend

3. Phoenix and Maricopa lead nation in gross vacancy rates “Of the ten most populous cities in 2010, Phoenix had the highest gross vacancy rate at 12.8 percent.” “Of the ten most populous counties in 2010, Maricopa County, AZ, had both the largest percentage-point increase (4.5) during the decade and highest vacancy rate (13.9 percent) in 2010.” – US Census Bureau, Housing Characteristics 2010, 2010 Census Briefs, C2010BR-07, Oct. 2011.

4. Metro Phoenix has an oversupply of single-family detached houses Total SF Detached 1,156,600 100% Total SF Detached Occupied 1,023,50088.5% Total SF Detached Vacant 133,10011.5% Source: American Housing Survey, Table C-01-AH-M for Metropolitan Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, 2011

5. Vacancies do not include homes under development – permits for SFH still mismatched to household size % Households 3+ Persons % Permits Single Family 200540.086.7 201338.369.2

6. Local civil infrastructure* costs are much higher for low-density development Low Density (less than 1 unit per acre) High Density (more than 10 units per acre) Infrastructure Cost per Housing Unit$62,000$25,000 Source: CNT Staff analysis, Capital Area Regional Planning Commission, Madison WI *Water, sewer, roads. Based on a study by CNT in Wisconsin

7. Transportation in U.S. Household Budgets Source: Kuby, M. and Golub, A. 2015. Transportation and Arizona. Arizona Town Hall Background Report: www.aztownhall.org.

8. Annual transportation costs (driving + public transit) Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology, Housing+Transportation Index: http://htaindex.cnt.org/map/

9. Affordable Locations Relative to Median Income Housing < 30% H+T < 45% Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology, Housing+Transportation Index: http://htaindex.cnt.org/map/

10. Foreclosures were also concentrated on the urban fringe Source: http://archive.azcentral.com/business/foreclosures/index.php

11. The Sun Corridor: Far From a Foregone Conclusion Source: Kuby, M. and Golub, A. 2015. Transportation and Arizona. Arizona Town Hall Background Report: www.aztownhall.org.www.aztownhall.org

13. ADOT has recommended the yellow route as the preferred alternative for Phoenix-Tucson passenger rail service, but there’s no financing yet. Source: ADOT, Passenger Rail Study, Draft Environmental Impact Statement, 2015: http://azdot.gov/planning/CurrentStudies /PassengerRail http://azdot.gov/planning/CurrentStudies /PassengerRail

14. Will migration continue as the Sun Belt gets hotter? Source: ADOT Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment, November 2014.

15. Feel free to contact us Prof. Michael Kuby, mikekuby@asu.edu, 480-965-6850 mikekuby@asu.edu Scott Bernstein, CNT, scott@cnt.org scott@cnt.org