1. Inga Blaziene Boguslavas Gruzevskis Vilnius-Brussels, 2012 Economic and social situation in Baltic countries: LITHUANIA INSTITUTE OF LABOUR AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

2. CONTENT   Evaluation of Lithuanian economic potential (GDP);   Unemployment developments;   Population income and living standards;   Emigration and demographic perspectives in Lithuania;   Conclusions.

3. Treaty on European Union   The Union […] shall work for the sustainable development of Europe based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive social market economy, aiming at full employment and social progress […].   It shall combat social exclusion and discrimination, and shall promote social justice and protection […].   It shall promote economic, social and territorial cohesion, and solidarity among Member States. (Treaty on European Union, Title 1, Article 3)

4. GDP per capita in PPP in 2011 (EU27 = 100%)

5. Annual GDP growth (%)

6. Unemployment indicators in Lithuania in 2004–2011

7. Unemployment rate in EU in 2011 (%) Source: „Eurostat“

8. Youth unemployment rate in EU in 2011 (%) Source: „Eurostat“

9. Average annual gross earnings in business economy in EU in 2009-2010 (euro)

10. Average annual gross earnings in business economy in EU in 2006-2007 (euro)

11. Average gross monthly wages and salaries in Lithuania in 2001-2011 20012005200720102011 Average gross monthly wages and salaries (LTL) 982,31276,21802,41988,12042,0 Growth of average gross monthly wages and salaries (%) 101,2111,0120,596,7102,7 Real growth of average gross monthly wages and salaries (%) 99,6106,8117,095,798,5

12. Average monthly income in Lithuania in the 1 st quarter, 2012 LTL per monthEuro per month Average gross wage2138620 Average net wage1662482 Average old age pension815236 Minimum monthly wage (gross)800232 Average unemployment social insurance benefit 556161 Social benefit (for single person)13038

13. Price level index of selected consumption goods and services in Lithuania and EU-27 in 2010 (%) ES-27Lietuva Clothing and footwear10099 Electronical appliances10097 Personal transport equipments10092 Household appliances10091 Electricity, gas and other fuels10080 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco10077 Furnishings and household equipment10077 Food and non-alcoholic beverages10072

14. In work at-risk-of-poverty rate in EU in 2010 (%)

15. Austerity measures   increased VAT (from 19% to 21%);   decreased old age pensions;   decreased unemployment social insurance benefits;   tighten conditions for payment of unemployment social insurance benefits;   decreased salaries of public sector employees (by 4-12%);   low minimum monthly wage was not increased, etc.

16. Unemployed and unemployed receiving unemployment benefits in Lithuania in 2008-2010

17. Recipients of social benefits in Lithuania in 2005-2011 (thous.)

18. Declared emigration from Baltic countries (persons)

19. Persons, emigrated from Lithuania: 2004–2011 – 330 thous. 1990–2011 – 668 thous.

20. Acceleration of demographic ageing in some EU countries in 2006-2011 m. (%)

21. Lithuanian population by gender and age in 2010 and forecasts for 2060 Men, 2010 Women, 2010 2060 1 in 2060 – 2 million 548 thous. (by 697 thous. less comparing to 2011) 1 1

22. Lithuanian perspectives in 2060 Lithuania: will have 2,5 million residents, out of them youth (15-29 years) – 339,6 thous. (13%)

23. Social insurance statistics in Lithuania in 2006-2011 At the end of 2012 m. State social insurance fund debt will reach LTL 12 billion (3,5 billion euro). 200620072008200920102011 Insured population (thous.)142114671463130912531303,4 Pension and benefit payments recipients (thous.) 1785,81921,61943,31792,61613,01580,0 Old-age pensions (thous.)591,0590,9595,0597,9598,8599,2 Revenue of the State Social Insurance Fund Board (million) 780097591121711357104875226,7 Expenses of the State Social Insurance Fund Board (million) 7245928301265414236132686492,3 Net result of the current year (million) 555476-1437-2879-2781-2650,6

24. Causes of such a situation include:  low labour productivity and low wages;   low living standards and “poverty trap”, high rate of economic inactivity;   decrease in number of enterprises (especially – large, small and medium) and low technological level of production;   imbalances in vocational education and training and structural unemployment (in 2011 as much as 11% of large enterprises declared shortage of qualified labour force);   unattractiveness of the national labour market comparing to the EU one.

25. Conclusions  the fastest depopulation in the EU;   the fastest ageing society in the EU;   decreasing economic capacity/potential of the country (number of enterprises and economic activity of the population);   increasing poverty;   inefficient social security policy;   huge distrust in public authorities (especially – the Parliament and the Government).

26. WHO IS RESPONSIBLE???