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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Prosperity...

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Presentation on theme: "John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Prosperity..."— Presentation transcript:

1 John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Prosperity...

2 After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … U.S. Jobs Long Slow Growth - Not Over-Heating

3 Petroleum Prices Helps Families In Modest Income Areas

4 Value of the Dollar: Helps Imports & Hurts Exports 23.6% 100.0

5 Consumer Confidence, 2009-2015 Needed To Help Homes Sales

6 Interest Rates Remain Benign Encourages Home Sales

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8 California Wage & Salary Employment: A Record Level

9 California Job Gains/Losses 2008-2010 -1,062,758 Great Recession 2011-2015 +1,938,092 Up +875,333 82.4% Up Recovery

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11 Very Rapid Job Growth: 3 Straight Years! 2011-2016p Gained Back 250,502 vs. 142,933 Lost 107,576 More Jobs Will Have Been Created!

12 Inland Empire Growth was the 2 nd Largest Absolute Job Gain in California in 2014!

13 IE Unemployment Rate: Closing In on the National Level

14 The Issue: Poverty

15 Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier

16 Educational Challenge For Adults & Their Children Time To Stop Talking & Do Something About This!

17 Health Care

18 Health Care Jobs: Continuous Growth 2011-2015 12% of Job Growth Median Pay $54,261

19 Inland Empire Underserved by Health Care Workers 27.7% More People Per Health Care Worker in 2014 36.5% More People Per Health Care Worker in 2010

20 Sophisticated Warehousing Operations

21 Port Container Volumes Strong Even With January Labor Slowdown

22 Fulfillment Warehousing

23 E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter

24 Net Industrial Space Absorption 19.6 million

25 Industrial Vacancy Rate 3.6%

26 Logistics Incredibly Important To Inland Empire’s Economic Health 2011-2015 Mary 23% of New Jobs Remember: Every Gold Mine Job Also Funds Another Secondary Tier Job Median Pay $45,677

27 PM 2.5: Diesel Pollution -95.6%

28 Manufacturing: Should Be A Major Growth Source

29 California Manufacturing Job Growth Just 4.0% of U.S. Growth

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31 CA Is Not Loved By Executives & Entrepreneurs

32 Inland Empire Manufacturing Jobs 2011-2015 4% of Job Growth Median Pay $49,567

33 Construction: Finally Coming Back

34 Notices of Default At Low Levels (873 in August 2015) Negative Equity Has Dropped 4 th Qtr 2009 - 2nd Qtr 2015 54.9% to 12.3%

35 Home Price Trends 83.5% -26.9%

36 Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists

37 Affordability to Median Income Household 2 nd Quarter 2015 I. Empire: 46%-54% LA: 30%-70% Orange: 20%-80% SD: 25%-75%

38 Home Sales Volume Finally Some Upward Motion

39 The Future: Survey of 1,600 Millennials Long Term Goals 66% want to live in the suburbs 24% want to live in rural areas 10% want to live in a city center Want to live in more space than they have now 81% want three or more bedrooms in their home

40 Construction Jobs: Finally Growing Median Pay $51,051 2011-2015 11% of Job Growth

41 Higher End Homes Draw Well Educated Workers $585,199 $417,443 $484,409 UPLAND EASTVALE $468,269 $463,034 $440,000 CORONA $436,898 TEMECULA $358,516$399,676 $590,000 Claremont $360,087$351,504 Loma Linda

42 Migration of Educated Workers

43 Migration of AA or Higher

44 Diversity Challenge

45 Professionals, Mgmt., Utilities, Information, Mining Slowly Coming Back Median Pay $65,453 2011-2015 4.1% of Growth

46 Office Space Net Absorption 492,858

47 Office Vacancy Rate 15.0%

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49 Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier

50 Low Paying Job Growth Retail, Consumer & Bus. Services, Hotel, Eat & Drink Amusement, Agriculture, Employment Agency 2011-2015 45% of Job Growth Median Pay $28,927

51 Federal, State, Local Government Median Pay $57,984 2011-2015 -5% of Job Growth

52 Job Quality Mgmt & Professions California: 14.4% Inland Empire: 5.1%

53 www.johnhusing.com


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